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  • [QUOTE=Starlight;742193]It's statements like this that confuse people. If you assert that the curve is (solely) determined by the virus, you're implying it's not determined by other things, e.g. government policy around social distancing. [/quote sti]

    Your still not reading my posts completely, and yes the world is panicing and confused beyond belief. I said, "the pattern of the curve is determined by the virus."

    Perhaps what you mean is something more along the lines of "this virus seems to have a distinctive bell-shaped curve, whose height can be changed through different government policies (e.g. around social distancing)".
    The coronavirus has a distinctive curve

    I think your symmetry assumption is fundamentally wrong though.

    Initially in most countries, in the absence of social distancing measures, etc, the virus will have had a certain R0, so those countries will see an exponential curve rising at that rate. After there is a serious policy intervention - lockdown / social-distancing etc, there is essentially a new R0' relating to the virus spread (e.g. in NZ this was <0.5), and so you get a new exponential curve beginning around then whose growth or decay relate relates to this new R0'. Your assumption that the resultant graph will be symmetrical, assumes that the new R0' will happen to be the inverse of the original R0. There is no particular likelihood of this being true. The new R0' will be almost totally dependent on the rules implemented and level of compliance with them, so could range from almost zero to as high as the original R0. So only by chance would the two phases of the curve be symmetrical with each other.

    Typical R0 values seem to be 1-5 (most often 2-3) for the initial outbreak, and then around 0.3-2.0 for the post-intervention R0'. If the initial R0 happens to be 2.0 and the R0' happens to be 0.5, you'll get a lovely symmetric bell curve since those are inverses. But if not, not. So there can be symmetry by chance, but it's not particularly likely.
    No chance involved here. There is no such thing as a 'lovely symmetric curve. Still very awkward disjoint communication on your part.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • [QUOTE=Starlight;742193]It's statements like this that confuse people. If you assert that the curve is (solely) determined by the virus, you're implying it's not determined by other things, e.g. government policy around social distancing. [/quote sti]

      Your still not reading my posts completely, and yes the world is panicing and confused beyond belief. I said, "the pattern of the curve is determined by the virus."

      Perhaps what you mean is something more along the lines of "this virus seems to have a distinctive bell-shaped curve, whose height can be changed through different government policies (e.g. around social distancing)".
      The coronavirus has a distinctive curve, and the pattern of the curve is a predictable curve.

      I think your symmetry assumption is fundamentally wrong though.

      Initially in most countries, in the absence of social distancing measures, etc, the virus will have had a certain R0, so those countries will see an exponential curve rising at that rate. After there is a serious policy intervention - lockdown / social-distancing etc, there is essentially a new R0' relating to the virus spread (e.g. in NZ this was <0.5), and so you get a new exponential curve beginning around then whose growth or decay relate relates to this new R0'. Your assumption that the resultant graph will be symmetrical, assumes that the new R0' will happen to be the inverse of the original R0. There is no particular likelihood of this being true. The new R0' will be almost totally dependent on the rules implemented and level of compliance with them, so could range from almost zero to as high as the original R0. So only by chance would the two phases of the curve be symmetrical with each other.

      Typical R0 values seem to be 1-5 (most often 2-3) for the initial outbreak, and then around 0.3-2.0 for the post-intervention R0'. If the initial R0 happens to be 2.0 and the R0' happens to be 0.5, you'll get a lovely symmetric bell curve since those are inverses. But if not, not. So there can be symmetry by chance, but it's not particularly likely.
      No chance involved here. There is no such thing as a 'lovely symmetric curve'. Still very awkward disjoint communication on your part.
      Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-28-2020, 06:24 AM.
      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

      go with the flow the river knows . . .

      Frank

      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
        It's statements like this that confuse people. If you assert that the curve is (solely) determined by the virus, you're implying it's not determined by other things, e.g. government policy around social distancing.

        Perhaps what you mean is something more along the lines of "this virus seems to have a distinctive bell-shaped curve, whose height can be changed through different government policies (e.g. around social distancing)".

        I think your symmetry assumption is fundamentally wrong though. Initially in most countries, in the absence of social distancing measures, etc, the virus will have had a certain R0, so those countries will see an exponential curve rising at that rate. After there is a serious policy intervention - lockdown / social-distancing etc, there is essentially a new R0' relating to the virus spread (e.g. in NZ this was <0.5), and so you get a new exponential curve beginning around then whose growth or decay relate relates to this new R0'. Your assumption that the resultant graph will be symmetrical, assumes that the new R0' will happen to be the inverse of the original R0. There is no particular likelihood of this being true. The new R0' will be almost totally dependent on the rules implemented and level of compliance with them, so could range from almost zero to as high as the original R0. So only by chance would the two phases of the curve be symmetrical with each other.

        Typical R0 values seem to be 1-5 (most often 2-3) for the initial outbreak, and then around 0.3-2.0 for the post-intervention R0'. If the initial R0 happens to be 2.0 and the R0' happens to be 0.5, you'll get a lovely symmetric bell curve since those are inverses. But if not, not. So there can be symmetry by chance, but it's not particularly likely.
        This reference demonstrates the consistency and predictability of the COVID-19 cases and fatality curve history, and reflecting the different size and geographic nature of the countries: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

        go with the flow the river knows . . .

        Frank

        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by MaxVel View Post
          Ummm... world gone crazy... solid posts from Starlight AND Shunya... Wha....?
          Starlight and I disagree on many things. No problem.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • WHO guidance: Healthy people should wear masks only when 'taking care of' coronavirus patients

            https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-gu...virus-patients
            Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

            Comment


            • Originally posted by seer View Post
              WHO guidance: Healthy people should wear masks only when 'taking care of' coronavirus patients

              https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-gu...virus-patients
              And it is still on their page.

              https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...w-to-use-masks
              That's what
              - She

              Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
              - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

              I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
              - Stephen R. Donaldson

              Comment


              • Originally posted by seer View Post
                WHO guidance: Healthy people should wear masks only when 'taking care of' coronavirus patients

                https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-gu...virus-patients

                sounds like they either disagree with the CDC or they have not had the time or funding to replace the video.
                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                Comment


                • To reiterate: The US active daily cases is flat since reopening. That is, wherease we were in a slow decline, that decline appears to have stopped. And we did not even get to 1/2 peak growth. We are averaging 20,000 new cases/day. 1/2 would have been around 15,000 new cases/day.

                  I will be monitoring this closely for the next two weeks. We are 4 days out from the end of the Memorial day weekend. We should start to see rises in the active daily cases over the next 3 to 5 days and continuing if the activities and relaxed restrictions accompanying memorial day have pushed us back into positive growth territory.

                  Daily Cases US 05292020.jpg
                  My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                  If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                  This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                  Comment


                  • Something I've seen going around recently is claims that Coronavirus cases are being undercounting by instead attributing deaths merely to pneumonia e.g. here.


                    The likely higher numbers are corroborated by data from the website statista.com, which shows that from February to May 16, the number of COVID-19 deaths was 73,639, and that the number of pneumonia deaths was 89,555. Subtracting the seasonal average for pneumonia leaves 32,555 fatalities unaccounted for.


                    At minimum this should counterbalance any nonsensical claims of COVID45 *overcounting*.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
                      As a historical reference, the second wave during the Spanish flu was more deadly than the first wave. Will history repeat itself?
                      I am sure the left is crossing their fingers and hoping so. Anything to blame Trump for something else.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
                        At least we’re not in 12 Monkeys territory.
                        I will volunteer to go back in time if need be. Any messages you want me to bring you form the future?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          I will volunteer to go back in time if need be. Any messages you want me to bring you form the future?
                          Invest in sanitizer and toilet paper.

                          I'm always still in trouble again

                          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                          "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            Invest in sanitizer and toilet paper.
                            Neither have anything to do with the reducing the impact of the pandemic. Without a vaccine all we have is masks and self-distancing.
                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                              To reiterate: The US active daily cases is flat since reopening. That is, wherease we were in a slow decline, that decline appears to have stopped. And we did not even get to 1/2 peak growth. We are averaging 20,000 new cases/day. 1/2 would have been around 15,000 new cases/day.

                              I will be monitoring this closely for the next two weeks. We are 4 days out from the end of the Memorial day weekend. We should start to see rises in the active daily cases over the next 3 to 5 days and continuing if the activities and relaxed restrictions accompanying memorial day have pushed us back into positive growth territory.

                              [ATTACH=CONFIG]45133[/ATTACH]
                              The curve is interesting, and reflects my predictions, including a rise in the cases in June, when compared to the natural curve of those larger countries infected early. The natural cure of the USA is more messy than other countries, but follows the same pattern/ I do not consider the testing results of infected cases to be real accurate, but OK as a statisitical sampling that show a consistent pattern. The problem remains the large numbers of cases not tested, and those symptomatic and weakly infected. In another post I will describe the research that shows more than one variety of the coronavirus arrived in the USA from different sources, some more virulent than others. It is being confirmed that up to 80% of those infected do not show significant symptoms China provided the first estimate for the cases in Wuhan.

                              There are also questions concerning the reliability of testing and I will cite a reference concerning this later.

                              Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/over-80percent-of-coronavirus-patients-on-cruise-ship-had-no-symptoms-study-says.html



                              HEALTH AND SCIENCE
                              More than 80% of coronavirus patients on a cruise ship did not have any symptoms, new study says

                              KEY POINTS
                              More than 80% of infected passengers and crew on an expedition cruise ship did not show any symptoms, raising questions about the true prevalence of “silent” coronavirus infections, according to a new study.
                              The three researchers said their findings emphasize the need for accurate global data on the true number of people, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, who have been infected with the coronavirus.
                              The World Health Organization cautioned earlier Wednesday that it’s unknown whether people who have been infected with the coronavirus are at risk of becoming infected again.

                              More than 80% of the passengers and crew infected with coronavirus on an expedition cruise ship did not show any symptoms, raising questions about the true prevalence of “silent” infections, according to a peer-reviewed study published Wednesday in Thorax.

                              The three researchers said their findings emphasize the need for accurate global data on the number of people, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, who have been infected with the coronavirus.

                              “It is difficult to find a reliable estimate of the number of COVID positive patients who have no symptoms,” Alan Smyth, professor of child health at the University of Nottingham and joint editor-in-chief of Thorax, said in a statement. “As countries progress out of lockdown, a high proportion of infected, but asymptomatic, individuals may mean that a much higher percentage of the population than expected may have been infected with COVID.”

                              It remains unclear what a wider prevalence of infection would mean. The World Health Organization cautioned earlier Wednesday that it’s unknown whether people who have been infected with the coronavirus are at risk of becoming infected again.

                              Researchers have tried to determine the number of asymptomatic Covid-19 patients by conducting studies with antibody tests, which detect whether someone has previously been infected by the virus. However, such tests have been marred by accuracy concerns and it remains unclear how many asymptomatic carriers there are and how infectious they are.

                              The researchers’ findings come from observations aboard a 21-day expedition cruise to the Antarctic. All three researchers said they were aboard the ship, which set sail from Argentina in mid-March, after the WHO had declared the coronavirus a global pandemic. The researchers did not declare any funding for the study.

                              After eight days aboard the ship, the first case of fever was reported, the researchers said. They added that the ship immediately adopted preventive measures, including confining passengers to their cabins, halting most daily services and requiring crew members to wear protective equipment.

                              Of the 217 passengers and crew who remained on the ship for the entirety of the voyage, 128 tested positive for the coronavirus, the researchers said. They added that of those who tested positive, 24 exhibited symptoms and 104, or 81%, did not.

                              The researchers did not specify what test was used but noted that it had a high rate of false negatives, which might explain 10 situations in which passengers who shared the same cabin tested differently.

                              The researchers said their findings are especially significant for the cruise industry, which has been brought to a standstill by the coronavirus pandemic. Earlier this year, as the virus emerged, cruise ships in Japan and elsewhere became the sites of major outbreaks that led to onboard deaths and crew members quarantined at sea for weeks.

                              The industry is vying to return to service, led by the largest cruise operator in the world, Carnival Corp., which is slated to resume sailing on Aug. 1.

                              Correction: This article was revised to correct the number of people who did not develop symptoms to 104.

                              © Copyright Original Source

                              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                              go with the flow the river knows . . .

                              Frank

                              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                              Comment


                              • Problems of using counts of cases alone as a measure of course of the infection rate of the COVID-19 are reflected in the inconsistent poorly planned testing programs. The more comprehensive of different sources and types of data provided at: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. The cite is interactive and you can add countries to the difeerent graphs.

                                Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/



                                ‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

                                The government’s disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.

                                The absence of clear national guidelines has led to widespread confusion about how testing data should be reported. Pennsylvania reports negative viral and antibody tests in the same metric, a state spokesperson confirmed to us on Wednesday. The state has one of the country’s worst outbreaks, with more than 67,000 positive cases. But it has also slowly improved its testing performance, testing about 8,000 people in a day. Yet right now it is impossible to know how to interpret any of its accumulated results.

                                Read: Should you get an antibody test?

                                Texas, where the rate of new COVID-19 infections has stubbornly refused to fall, is one of the most worrying states (along with Georgia). The Texas Observer first reported last week that the state was lumping its viral and antibody results together. On Tuesday, Governor Greg Abbott denied that the state was blending the results, but the Dallas Observer reports that it is still doing so.


                                While the number of tests per day has increased in Texas, climbing to more than 20,000, the combined results mean that the testing data are essentially uninterpretable. It is impossible to know the true percentage of positive viral tests in Texas. It is impossible to know how many of the 718,000 negative results were not meant to diagnose a sick person. The state did not return a request for comment, nor has it produced data describing its antibody or viral results separately. (Some states, following guidelines from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, report antibody-test positives as “probable” COVID-19 cases without including them in their confirmed totals.)


                                Georgia is in a similar situation. It has also seen its COVID-19 infections plateau amid a surge in testing. Like Texas, it reported more than 20,000 new results on Wednesday, the majority of them negative. But because, according to The Macon Telegraph, it is also blending its viral and antibody results together, its true percent-positive rate is impossible to know. (The governor’s office did not return a request for comment.)



                                These results damage the public’s ability to understand what is happening in any one state. On a national scale, they call the strength of America’s response to the coronavirus into question. The number of tests conducted nationwide each day has more than doubled in the past month, rising from about 147,000 a month ago to more than 413,000 on Wednesday, according to the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic, which compiles data reported by state and territorial governments. In the past week, the daily number of tests has grown by about 90,000.

                                At the same time, the portion of tests coming back positive has plummeted, from a seven-day average of 10 percent at the month’s start to 6 percent on Wednesday.

                                “The numbers have outstripped what I was expecting,” Jha said. “My sense is people are really surprised that we’ve moved as much as we have in such a short time period. I think we all expected a move and we all expected improvement, but the pace and size of that improvement has been a big surprise.”

                                The intermingling of viral and antibody tests suggests that some of those gains might be illusory. If even a third of the country’s gain in testing has come by expanding antibody tests, not viral tests, then its ability to detect an outbreak is much smaller than it seems. There is no way to ascertain how much of the recent increase in testing is from antibody tests until the most populous states in the country—among them Texas, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—show their residents everything in the data.

                                © Copyright Original Source



                                Many states make the mistake that low infection rates outside large cities are safe to open, but these areas may simply have a low exposure rate to the population.
                                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                                Frank

                                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                                Comment

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