Coronavirus Outbreak...

[Bill the Cat]

This is what concerns me more than the virus. How government will react to it (whether hype or not) and how things could change as a result.

The government is in full panic mode. We just received an email cancelling all unnecessary travel for all agencies, 100% telework where possible, etc.

[Mountain Man]

Tag me in, ox! My turn to take the moron to school!

And then without a hint of irony or self-awareness, you go on to say...

So they admit they use a guesstimate (a guesstimate meant to scare people into getting flu shots which more often cause "flu" than prevent it), but their actual numbers are exponentially lower than their guesstimates. I smell fakery afoot!

And you call me a moron.

Is this even worth correcting? Are you really not aware that there is an entire discipline called "statistical analysis" where statisticians who are good at this sort of thing use known data to make extremely accurate predictions and estimates, and that this is a valid and accepted scientific process?

Should I explain that to you? Or will you just run off whooping and hollering about the latest "Aliens invaded my brain, and they're in cahoots with the government!" conspiracy theory?

[Zara]

And then without a hint of irony or self-awareness, you go on to say...


And you call me a moron.

Is this even worth correcting? Are you really not aware that there is an entire discipline called "statistical analysis" where statisticians who are good at this sort of thing use known data to make extremely accurate predictions and estimates, and that this is a valid and accepted scientific process?

Should I explain that to you? Or will you just run off whooping and hollering about the latest "Aliens invaded my brain, and they're in cahoots with the government!" conspiracy theory?

Yo, dumbo. It's time to shut your pie-hole. This is well above your pay-grade and so far above your level of intelligence that your input is unwelcome. Your callous disregard for your fellow man is pathetic.

The reason this hasn't spiraled out of control, yet, is because countries have shut down entire provinces. Saying it's not that bad, after all that has been done to stop it becoming that bad makes you look like a fool, which, frankly, you are. Your retard arguments don't cut it - the analysis has been done, the R0 is much higher than the flu, so unless this is stopped up to 70% of Germans will become infected.

We don't need another flu-like virus to circulate, especially one that could mutate into something much worse. Stopping this is a priority.

While we can't stop you being a • Edited by a Moderator •, we can hope that you wash your hands after scratching your fat-• Edited by a Moderator •.

[Mountain Man]

Yo, dumbo. It's time to shut your pie-hole. This is well above your pay-grade and so far above your level of intelligence that your input is unwelcome. Your callous disregard for your fellow man is pathetic.

The reason this hasn't spiraled out of control, yet, is because countries have shut down entire provinces. Saying it's not that bad, after all that has been done to stop it becoming that bad makes you look like a fool, which, frankly, you are. Your retard arguments don't cut it - the analysis has been done, the R0 is much higher than the flu, so unless this is stopped up to 70% of Germans will become infected.

We don't need another flu-like virus to circulate, especially one that could mutate into something much worse. Stopping this is a priority.

While we can't stop you being a • Edited by a Moderator •, we can hope that you wash your hands after scratching your fat-[beep].

Somebody done got triggered, y'all!

Go read the article I posted earlier, where around 3000 people were trapped on a cruise ship, a worst case scenario, and only 6 died, all in their 80s. The real-world mortality rate for COVID-19 is likely less than 1%.

But you go ahead attack me with your impotent insults if it makes you feel better. And for the record, I'm lean and healthy. It comes from eating well and staying active.

[Zara]

Somebody done got triggered, y'all!

Go read the article I posted earlier, where around 3000 people were trapped on a cruise ship, a worst case scenario, and only 6 died, all in their 80s. The real-world mortality rate for COVID-19 is likely less than 1%.

But you go ahead attack me with your impotent insults if it makes you feel better. And for the record, I'm lean and healthy. It comes from eating well and staying active.

Well, that's good, here was me thinking your heart problems were a result of a poor diet.

Even if it has a mortality rate of less than 1%, which is not established, with 70% of the population projected to be infected, from models, if it gets out of control in the first place - ~1 of 70% of 7.5 billion is not a small number - with many countries in no way prepared.

If it becomes seasonal like the other five corno-viruses that cause the cold- for decades, and decades and decades, that is a problem, one that might kill you. Immunity, assuming you survive the first round, is not forever.

The medical establishment and governments are worried enough to stop the virus. I'll take their word over yours.

[Mountain Man]

Well, that's good, here was me thinking your heart problems were a result of a poor diet.

Maybe if you had bothered to actually read the posts you're referring to, you would have noticed that my bad valve was a birth defect and was entirely unrelated to any lifestyle choices.

As for facts and figures, keep in mind that the 0.8% estimate is based on a worst case scenario situation. Go back and read the article I posted if you want the particulars.

[Mountain Man]

The annual Electronic Entertainment Expo (also known as E3) has been cancelled because of coronavirus fears. Now here's the strange part: E3 happens in June, which is many months after the flu season, so why are they cancelling it now? Some are saying that with the internet and video conferencing that E3 has outlived its usefulness anyway, and that the organizers are looking for a way to gracefully exit a conference that's not as profitable as it used to be, and "We're cancelling for your own good" sounds more altruistic than "We're cancelling because we're losing money".

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/e3.../1100-6474647/

[JimL]

That cat is already out of the bag. They are now just trying to mitigate the spread and slow it down. "Flatten the curve" is what the CDC guy said yesterday, so that the number of cases is spread out instead of spiking all at once and overwhelming the hospitals.

No. Do you forget the SARS pandemic. Covid-19 can be eradicated too.

[Zara]

Maybe if you had bothered to actually read the posts you're referring to, you would have noticed that my bad valve was a birth defect and was entirely unrelated to any lifestyle choices.

As for facts and figures, keep in mind that the 0.8% estimate is based on a worst case scenario situation. Go back and read the article I posted if you want the particulars.

The world has acted to stop the spread of the virus, it has been effective. We haven't seen widespread uncontrolled infections, yet. So, saying that 'it's not that bad', doesn't reflect what is being done to prevent its spread.

The death rate is still an unknown, however, it is likely to be higher than the flu. 0.8% is pretty nasty. Not only people in their 80s die.

The flu is already an expensive problem. We don't want another flu-like illness with a higher R0 and higher mortality rate to add to the collection of problems. This is aside from the current complete lack of immunity to this virus, suggesting up to 70% of Germans may be infected according to their models.

Your heart valve replacement is lucky, for you.

[Catholicity]

Is anyone else more concerned that people just NOW seem to care about washing their hands?

[oxmixmudd]

Right, it's the end of the world.

I bet you're not even aware that the seasonal flu reached pandemic levels during the 2018 season, yet we didn't see this kind of hysteria.

I'm going to do exactly what I do every year around this time: take sensible precautions and continue with my life. I suggest you skip the Chicken Little routine and do the same.

This is not the flu. This is a disease that kills 8 to 20x what the flu does - IF they get good medical care. That pandemic you mention pushed our ICU and critical care systems in this country to their maximum. We do not have the capacity to deal with 8 to 20x that unchecked. It is more contagious than the flu. And it puts more (by percentage) people in serious to critical condition than the flu. That is just what it is. The facts are what they are. And those that heed their implications will benefit from doing just that. Those that do not may well die in their folly. It is clear you do not comprehend exponential growth nor the mechanics of the spread of a communicable disease. I can only hope others reading these words are not so impaired.

In Italy they are having to make decisions like we only have one ventilator available and this fellow is old and unlikely to survive - we will not treat them because this other person is younger and more likely to survive.

That is where it is in Italy with 12000 cases.

And that is where we will be in less than two months if we do not act and we do not aggressively test and quarantine any found to be carrying the virus.

[Mountain Man]

This is a disease that kills 8 to 20x what the flu does...

There is good information indicating that these kinds of claims are wildly exaggerated.

[Christianbookworm]

Controlling it is important, but panicking helps no one. What's a good way to protect vulnerable people from getting the virus? Not letting anyone with contact with the virus visit? Quarantine in hot spot areas? What about groups where a two week quarantine is impractical? I just think we should be rational and not panic.

[KingsGambit]

Controlling it is important, but panicking helps no one. What's a good way to protect vulnerable people from getting the virus? Not letting anyone with contact with the virus visit? Quarantine in hot spot areas? What about groups where a two week quarantine is impractical? I just think we should be rational and not panic.

Practically speaking, we need to have ways that people who live paycheck to paycheck don't feel like they have to go into work sick and expose the public, or else end up homeless. Pence has been talking about some plans to support people in quarantines with short term financial help.

[oxmixmudd]

There is good information indicating that these kinds of claims are wildly exaggerated.

No there isn't.

The best situation we have is S. Korea. Their mortality is .8%. Flu mortality is .1% These are the numbers - do the math.

S. Korea: 60/7755 = .0077 = .8%

Italy: 847/12462 = .067 = 6.7%

Italy is almost 7% and they are in full on lock down with the doctors having to make life and death decisions about who to treat. This is real.

This DOES NOT HAPPEN WITH THE FLU! Stop listening to idiots.