Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

Coronavirus Outbreak...

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    A successful analysis looks at what worked and didn't, and focuses on the future. What we have is continued focus on the failures and nothing but ridicule for those failures. This should be a learning experience for us, but instead, it is a political hit-job.
    When the analysis shows us that the problem is inept leadership...that's the lesson we should take into the future.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    Because there were only a handful of cases at the time of the ban. It SHOULD have been good enough, but people cheated the system. That isn't Trump's fault.
    No - it shouldn't have been good enough. It couldn't have been good enough. When you have a world health crisis (and there were cases in several dozen countries by the time Trump issued the ban), partially closing the border to one country in a manner that causes mayhem and more crowding is an inept attempt at best. And assuming that closing the borders will protect us when the virus is already demonstrably within the country is folly. In the face of a pandemic - over-reaction is recommended - because under-reaction is deadly and you have no way of knowing what the "right" level of reaction is.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    "Italy looked at the example of China … not as a practical warning, but as a 'science fiction movie that had nothing to do with us.' And when the virus exploded, Europe … 'looked at us the same way we looked at China.'"
    — Sandra Zampa, undersecretary of Italy's Health Ministry, to the NY Times
    And the point is? The fact is that Italy shut down travel from China 100% - not as a partial measure. And then they went on to make their own mistakes which, coupled with an older population, turned out to be deadly.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    The National Guard can only be activated by the Governor of the state. They need no authorization from the Pentagon or the POTUS.
    Well - not exactly. There are legal avenues for "nationalizing" the guard. But Trump COULD have worked with the governors to mobilize the guard (and other resources) to achieve what I suggested.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    There already is a federally controlled oversight of the supply chain. It's called the Defense Logistics Agency. But budget cuts under the Obama administration to the agency severely reduced their ability to surge personnel for emergencies.
    When will you guys stop blaming someone who has been out of office for 3.5 years for everything bad that happens? Trump has been in the "buck stops here" chair since January 21, 2017. And the existence of this agency didn't seem to do anything to stop the inter-state bidding for supplies, doing little except enriching people looking to make a fast buck.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    See above.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    And Trump DID more early in March, including restricting government workers like me from traveling.
    Trump did a little bit of this, and a little bit of that, but didn't actually even get on the "it's a pandemic and we have a problem" bandwagon until his speech on March 14th. Before that it was mostly magical thinking and "it will go away" and half-hearted measures here and there.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    I disagree. His messages are consistently cautiously optimistic.
    Trump is a master of double-speak, so he can dodge responsibility for pretty much anything. At a time when this country needed effective leadership, what we got was more "what's in it for me" from our narcissist-in-chief

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    Not at all.
    Then you haven't been watching. In the middle of a surge in infections, he holds rallies in two of the states surging the most (percentage wise). He tells people he wants less testing, not more. he downplays the importance of masks - and refuses to wear one himself. In the 500 counties most impacted by this virus, his approval rating is dropping not only with liberals, progessives and moderates, but with his own base.

    Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    Daily deaths are down. As soon as we can get a vaccine, they will probably drop precipitously. Keeping the economy closed causes more harm than opening it back up.
    I don't believe I said anything about "keeping the economy closed," so I have no response. As for daily deaths, yes, they have been declining on a slow ramp - and I doubt they will ever return to their peaks in April. The medical community now has experience, and the infection is primarily spreading among younger people - for now. But watch those numbers closely. Yesterday we were back up to nearly 1,000 deaths. And the daily infection rate is now averaging above 50,000. The death rates will climb. It's pretty much inevitable.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      The stock market is almost back where it was before the lockdown. Most Americans have their retirement money in the stock market, whether they know it or not. So the stock market isn't just for the rich like the liberals like to claim. When the stock market does good, we all do good. When it doesn't, people can lose their entire retirement savings.
      Sparko - the data is clear: stock is owned by about 52% of the American population. That leaves 48% who don't own a share of stock in any vehicle. They tend to be among the lowest earners in this country, most of whom don't even HAVE a retirement plan.

      That 48% doesn't give a fig what the stock market is doing. They're asking themselves, "how have things gotten better for me?" Increasingly, their answer is "things haven't gotten better." It's one of the many reasons that Biden is currently swamping Trump and Trump's approval rating is heading south on an almost daily basis. Indeed, even his own base is now showing cracks as he mismanages one crisis after another.
      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
        The death rate is declining, which means that despite more cases being found, fewer people are dying.
        Umm... very insightful...

        As of this morning, the 10-day running average for deaths is at 582. It was at 585 two weeks ago and has floated between 534 and 707 since. That means every six days we are losing as many Americans as 911, and twice as many people as the average daily loss for the worst flu year on record.

        I don't know about you - but I don't find those very good numbers.

        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
        This indicates a lot more testing going on, finding cases that resolve without death. Which lowers the overall mortality rate of COVID-19.
        Wow. Your grasp of statistics is really, really, bad, Sparko. You keep demonstrating this. More testing has little/no impact on the mortality rate. The mortality rate is the rate of death as measured against population. We will only know that rate when the pandemic is over. Right now, the best we can do is use available evidence to guess at that rate. The case-specific mortality rate (which is what I think you are referring to), also known as the case fatality rate, is obtained by dividing the number of deaths into the total number of people exposed. Because of out poor testing in the U.S., we can (at best) guess at this number. Fortunately, we have numbers from several other places where testing has been taken more seriously, and they continue to confirm an average of around 1% with a range of 0.2% for the youngest/healthiest to 14% for the oldest/sickest.

        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
        This could mean that the disease has mutated to a less deadly form, or that the treatments we have now are working to lower the death rate. It's good news. But the MSM is ignoring this fact and just reporting the increasing daily cases.
        Actually, I read pretty widely from many sources and there is reporting on all aspects of this, despite your "MSM boogeyman" POV. There has been significant coverage of why the death rate is staying depressed even though the case incidence rate, as well as the % positive, are climbing in 40 states. Most attribute it to two factors: 1) the current wave of infections is primarily happening in younger people and 2) the increased expertise in the medical community for treating this. For example, it turns out ventilators are minimally effective most of the time. This is why there was a sudden turn around in demand for them. Ventilators deal with mechanical deficiencies in the lung. They do not help if the issue is related to oxygen absorption within the lungs, which is one of the many things this disease attacks. Instead, anti-inflammatory treatments (e.g., steroids) are having a better impact. As a consequence of these two factors, deaths are tending to remain low.

        If 100% of the 50K infections were impacting healthy people 0-40, the data tells us deaths should drop to around 100/day (case-specific mortality of 0.2% for this population). The fact that we are still at 5-6 times that rate means infections are hitting other populations as well. As the confirmed infections per day climbs, so too will the deaths per day. It is basically inevitable.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
          Sparko - the data is clear: stock is owned by about 52% of the American population. That leaves 48% who don't own a share of stock in any vehicle. They tend to be among the lowest earners in this country, most of whom don't even HAVE a retirement plan.

          That 48% doesn't give a fig what the stock market is doing. They're asking themselves, "how have things gotten better for me?" Increasingly, their answer is "things haven't gotten better." It's one of the many reasons that Biden is currently swamping Trump and Trump's approval rating is heading south on an almost daily basis. Indeed, even his own base is now showing cracks as he mismanages one crisis after another.
          The companies they work for are many times reliant on the Stock Market. And most at one point in their careers will end up with a retirement account.

          I am sure there will always be some who never have anything to do with the stock market, but there are always exceptions. Doesn't mean that the Stock Market doing well isn't essential to the economy doing well.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            Umm... very insightful...

            As of this morning, the 10-day running average for deaths is at 582. It was at 585 two weeks ago and has floated between 534 and 707 since. That means every six days we are losing as many Americans as 911, and twice as many people as the average daily loss for the worst flu year on record.

            I don't know about you - but I don't find those very good numbers.
            Over 7,000 people die every day of natural causes in the USA. That's like almost two 911's every day!!! OH NOES!

            coviddeaths.jpg



            Wow. Your grasp of statistics is really, really, bad, Sparko. You keep demonstrating this. More testing has little/no impact on the mortality rate. The mortality rate is the rate of death as measured against population. We will only know that rate when the pandemic is over. Right now, the best we can do is use available evidence to guess at that rate. The case-specific mortality rate (which is what I think you are referring to), also known as the case fatality rate, is obtained by dividing the number of deaths into the total number of people exposed. Because of out poor testing in the U.S., we can (at best) guess at this number. Fortunately, we have numbers from several other places where testing has been taken more seriously, and they continue to confirm an average of around 1% with a range of 0.2% for the youngest/healthiest to 14% for the oldest/sickest.
            Uh no. The mortality rate is how many people who catch the disease DIE from the disease. For the flu it is .1% - 1 out of a 10,000 people who catch the flu will die from it. So knowing the mortality rate is dependent on having an accurate count of how many people actually have the flu. Same with COVID.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              Over 7,000 people die every day of natural causes in the USA. That's like almost two 911's every day!!! OH NOES!

              [ATTACH=CONFIG]46404[/ATTACH]





              Uh no. The mortality rate is how many people who catch the disease DIE from the disease. For the flu it is .1% - 1 out of a 10,000 people who catch the flu will die from it. So knowing the mortality rate is dependent on having an accurate count of how many people actually have the flu. Same with COVID.
              The mortality rate percent of infected is not the whole story. COVIS-19 is different from flu viruses. The infection rate of COVID-19 is extremely high, but by far most are asymptomatic or mildly infected, but the flu viruses infect fewer individuals, and no asymptomatic cases, and the severe cases, hospitalizations are fewer except for the 1917-1920 pandemic.

              It is the total severe cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities that make the COVID-19 the second most severe pandemic in the 20th and 21st century.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                The mortality rate percent of infected is not the whole story. COVIS-19 is different from flu viruses. The infection rate of COVID-19 is extremely high, but by far most are asymptomatic or mildly infected, but the flu viruses infect fewer individuals, and no asymptomatic cases, and the severe cases, hospitalizations are fewer except for the 1917-1920 pandemic.

                It is the total severe cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities that make the COVID-19 the second most severe pandemic in the 20th and 21st century.
                The daily hospitalizations compared to daily cases has decreased greatly too. This is probably due to more testing and finding more milder cases that went unknown previously. A bit harder to read because of the lag between catching it and having to go to the hospital if bad enough.

                covid hospitilizations.jpg

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  The daily hospitalizations compared to daily cases has decreased greatly too. This is probably due to more testing and finding more milder cases that went unknown previously. A bit harder to read because of the lag between catching it and having to go to the hospital if bad enough.

                  [ATTACH=CONFIG]46405[/ATTACH]
                  Acknowledged the death rate is not spiking with the increase in positive test cases. but the hospitalizations is still going up and may lag positive tests. The survival rate is likely going to increase may be due to an increase in the percentage of young people in this surge, and also because of better treatment technology coming into play. The rise in number of cases in the second surge occurs in most countries, and most lately Australia and Israel.

                  Worldwide the fatality numbers are not going down significantly.
                  Last edited by shunyadragon; 07-08-2020, 04:09 PM.
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    Acknowledged the death rate is not spiking with the increase in positive test cases. but the hospitalizations is still going up. The survival rate is likely going to increase also because of better treatment technology coming into play. The rise in number of cases in the second surge occurs in most countries, and most lately Australia and Israel.
                    IIRC the hospitalizations are now generally very short term compared to what we experienced in say April or even May. A significant number actually appear to be of the keeping-overnight-for-observation variety. And in some places like Texas (which is experiencing an increase in cases) only something like 15% of ICU stays are now for the Chicom coronavirus

                    I'm always still in trouble again

                    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      IIRC the hospitalizations are now generally very short term compared to what we experienced in say April or even May. A significant number actually appear to be of the keeping-overnight-for-observation variety. And in some places like Texas (which is experiencing an increase in cases) only something like 15% of ICU stays are now for the Chicom coronavirus
                      As usual no reference to back up your IIRC. The second surge occurs in almost all countries, our's, as have Israel and Australia, have just begun.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                        IIRC the hospitalizations are now generally very short term compared to what we experienced in say April or even May. A significant number actually appear to be of the keeping-overnight-for-observation variety. And in some places like Texas (which is experiencing an increase in cases) only something like 15% of ICU stays are now for the Chicom coronavirus
                        I wanted to add to a certain extent you may be correct in trends, but it is uncertain as to timing of the diminishing of the cases, severe illnesses and fatalities. I have predicted that after this surge the course of the COVID-19 is downward and recover. Like other flu pandemics the most likely course is it will fade away, and maybe come again another day.

                        My main objections are as follows: (1) Those that minamlze and even ridicule the impact the pandemic and the measures needed to reduce the severe cases, reduce the fatality rate, and protect the vulnerable and elderly. You know it is just like the common flu. Including those that claim is not a pandemic. (2) The chicken little panic world the sky is falling, and over emphasize the disaster potential of the pandemic. (3) The mighty super hero league that claim they are defeating and ending the COVID-19 pandemic, sort of by their force of will.
                        Last edited by shunyadragon; 07-08-2020, 06:37 PM.
                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          The companies they work for are many times reliant on the Stock Market.
                          Maybe - but then that benefits the owners of that company - not the employees.

                          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          And most at one point in their careers will end up with a retirement account.
                          Please back this claim up with some actual data. I am finding nothing to support this claim.

                          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          I am sure there will always be some who never have anything to do with the stock market, but there are always exceptions. Doesn't mean that the Stock Market doing well isn't essential to the economy doing well.
                          A common mistake for those who do not understand economics and the stock market. The stock market is not the economy nor does it accurately reflect the economy. Generally, it is more in line with the degree of optimism present in the owners of the stocks and bonds. It can crash for no other reason than a major CEO gets sick or dies. It can spike for no other reason than a news story that suggests this or that vertical are poised to rebound or grow. It can move due to the election of a politician, or the announcement of a particularly bad hurricane season. The state of the economy is one of many factors that can influence the market.

                          You are making the same mistake Trump has made since taking office. About 50% of the country could give a fig if the market is up or down at any given time. It has little/no direct impact on them.
                          Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-10-2020, 11:40 AM.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                            Over 7,000 people die every day of natural causes in the USA. That's like almost two 911's every day!!! OH NOES!

                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]46404[/ATTACH]
                            So you're comparing death by natural causes to death by a pandemic that could be contained?

                            And you think that is meaningful?

                            Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                            Uh no. The mortality rate is how many people who catch the disease DIE from the disease. For the flu it is .1% - 1 out of a 10,000 people who catch the flu will die from it. So knowing the mortality rate is dependent on having an accurate count of how many people actually have the flu. Same with COVID.
                            I think you need to review the field, Sparko. You can find the terminology explained here.

                            And a case-specific mortality of 0.1% means that one out of 1,000 who catch it will die from it, not 1 out of 10,000.

                            Knowing the mortality rate of a disease requires knowing the total deaths and the total population.
                            Knowing the case-specific morality rate of a disease requires knowing the total deaths and the size of the infected population.

                            Neither number can ever be known with 100 certainty because there is always some question about the source data and there is always the opportunity to miss actual cases. That is why statistical methods are used and the locations with the best source data tend to be the basis for the estimates.

                            Meanwhile, you might want to pay more attention to those numbers. As predicted, they have been up for the last three days as the confirmed infections/day climbs into the 60K range. The three day average is just below 948. The 10-day average has risen from 534 on Monday to 646 yesterday. Historical data tells us we will see a drop off over the weekend (probably a reporting issue). Last weekend was in the 200s, so if it is in the 300s or 400s this weekend, that is an increase. My guess is it will be at/above that level.
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              The daily hospitalizations compared to daily cases has decreased greatly too. This is probably due to more testing and finding more milder cases that went unknown previously. A bit harder to read because of the lag between catching it and having to go to the hospital if bad enough.

                              [ATTACH=CONFIG]46405[/ATTACH]
                              Note that the two lines on your graph show a temporal shift of approximately two weeks, which is in line with the normal pattern of the viral outbreak. Since the dramatic up-turn in the cases-per-day began around June 17th, it suggests we should see hospitalizations follow suit around the 1st of July. Your graph shows the beginning of that turn as early as 6/24. We would need to see the graph for the last two weeks to see what has happened recently. I don't know the source of your graph so I cannot find a more updated one.

                              Bottom line is, all of your arguments for how "things have decreased" are about to become moot - the numbers are going bad.


                              ETA: We are at 30K new cases today already (1:00 PM EDT), with 336 deaths already. Florida is above 11K new cases, 3K cases over yesterdays numbers. Arizona is over 4K new cases. Both states are havens for "snow birds" and heavily populated by those retiring. Texas, California, and Georgia have not yet submitted numbers for today. In fact, 27 states have yet to report ANY numbers for today. My prediction: we are going to set a new record for new cases today and deaths will be near or over 1,000.
                              Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-10-2020, 12:15 PM.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • The USA is going for leper colony status as predicted.

                                Eventually, it will burn itself out, or we will have an effective vaccine.
                                “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                                “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                                “not all there” - you know who you are

                                Comment

                                Related Threads

                                Collapse

                                Topics Statistics Last Post
                                Started by little_monkey, 03-27-2024, 04:19 PM
                                16 responses
                                159 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post One Bad Pig  
                                Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                                53 responses
                                400 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Mountain Man  
                                Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                                25 responses
                                114 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post rogue06
                                by rogue06
                                 
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                                33 responses
                                198 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Roy
                                by Roy
                                 
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                                84 responses
                                379 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post JimL
                                by JimL
                                 
                                Working...
                                X