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  • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
    My revised numbers (10:30 pm EDT) - 32,284 new cases and 1,321 new deaths. We're still climbing. The numbers are from WORLDOMETER - they give the numbers for every country on the planet. Also states by states, with graphics.
    The numbers will continue to climb up and down for a while. The peak will be between now and very early May and then taper off in a normal natural virus bell curve as previously predicted. April be a bad month. The positive side if there is one, is in natural virus bell curves the fatality rate and severity of the new cases decrease with time.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-03-2020, 09:59 PM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Charles View Post
      Anything to support your claim? And remember you did speak in general terms about "the media" not some particular media source.
      STOPposting.jpg
      "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

      There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
        My revised numbers (10:30 pm EDT) - 32,284 new cases and 1,321 new deaths. We're still climbing. The numbers are from WORLDOMETER - they give the numbers for every country on the planet. Also states by states, with graphics.
        That is the site I've been using and recommended here many weeks ago. But there are a good many sources of this sort of info.
        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

        Comment


        • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
          That is the site I've been using and recommended here many weeks ago. But there are a good many sources of this sort of info.
          The real unsettling number on that site is the death % in the closed cases. It’s currently on 21% and has been steadily creeping up from 11% when I first started checking the site a few weeks ago.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
            The numbers will continue to climb up and down for a while. The peak will be between now and very early May and then taper off in a normal natural virus bell curve as previously predicted. April be a bad month. The positive side if there is one, is in natural virus bell curves the fatality rate and severity of the new cases decrease with time.
            Will the cases taper off? I do doubt that there will a classic bell, the bell curve implies that it has run its course. We don't have a single epidemic, but a series of outbreaks at differing time and differing severity with differing local responses. If NYC experiences a tapering off, it has to deal with new cases brought in from other areas, other states. What we have is a rolling epidemic, rolling across the countryside.

            The epidemic has only hit a few major cities at the present, hospital capacity is not stressed for most of the country. Across New York State, the first cases are only now hitting the nursing homes in most of the state (they are admitted over the protests of administrators hoping to delay the inevitable). When peaks are hit in one place, the cases will be ramping up in others.

            We had one governor encouraging citizens to eat at Bob Evans, boasting how crowded it was. Then he closed things down. In spite of the evidence, public officials are hesitant to recognize the potential severity of this. We even have some here questioning if it is some evil media misinformation campaign. A consensus has not been had among 50 governors, which does suggest difficulty among 300 million to proceed with caution through this.

            Pandemic skeptics will play a role in allowing the hoped for tapering off.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
              Will the cases taper off? I do doubt that there will a classic bell, the bell curve implies that it has run its course. We don't have a single epidemic, but a series of outbreaks at differing time and differing severity with differing local responses. If NYC experiences a tapering off, it has to deal with new cases brought in from other areas, other states. What we have is a rolling epidemic, rolling across the countryside.

              The epidemic has only hit a few major cities at the present, hospital capacity is not stressed for most of the country. Across New York State, the first cases are only now hitting the nursing homes in most of the state (they are admitted over the protests of administrators hoping to delay the inevitable). When peaks are hit in one place, the cases will be ramping up in others.

              We had one governor encouraging citizens to eat at Bob Evans, boasting how crowded it was. Then he closed things down. In spite of the evidence, public officials are hesitant to recognize the potential severity of this. We even have some here questioning if it is some evil media misinformation campaign. A consensus has not been had among 50 governors, which does suggest difficulty among 300 million to proceed with caution through this.

              Pandemic skeptics will play a role in allowing the hoped for tapering off.
              There is also the phenomenon known as a Second Wave. The authorities in S. Korea, and to China to some extent, are preparing themselves for that. It only takes a small minority to ignore mitigation measure to start a second wave, considering that up to 30% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic.

              Comment


              • POTUS wants White House lawyer, Brian Miller to look after his money ($2 trillion).
                “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                “not all there” - you know who you are

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Darth Executor View Post
                  [ATTACH=CONFIG]43932[/ATTACH]
                  I see a fetish for STOP signs here, and unable to communicate beyond four letter words.
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
                    Will the cases taper off? I do doubt that there will a classic bell, the bell curve implies that it has run its course. We don't have a single epidemic, but a series of outbreaks at differing time and differing severity with differing local responses. If NYC experiences a tapering off, it has to deal with new cases brought in from other areas, other states. What we have is a rolling epidemic, rolling across the countryside.

                    The epidemic has only hit a few major cities at the present, hospital capacity is not stressed for most of the country. Across New York State, the first cases are only now hitting the nursing homes in most of the state (they are admitted over the protests of administrators hoping to delay the inevitable). When peaks are hit in one place, the cases will be ramping up in others.

                    We had one governor encouraging citizens to eat at Bob Evans, boasting how crowded it was. Then he closed things down. In spite of the evidence, public officials are hesitant to recognize the potential severity of this. We even have some here questioning if it is some evil media misinformation campaign. A consensus has not been had among 50 governors, which does suggest difficulty among 300 million to proceed with caution through this.

                    Pandemic skeptics will play a role in allowing the hoped for tapering off.
                    I am going by the history of viruses and the patterns of viruses in different countries. Watch closely to data and the graphs in the site I referred to: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. I believe the bell curve is apparent as predicted some time ago. I am presently predicting the path of the coronavirus in the major countries referenced. Yes I previously referred to the possibility of second waves previously. These second waves will no likely be large and do appear in isolated populations and countries without immunity, and there is the possibility of countries in the Southern hemisphere will have their own bell curve relationship. There is also the trend in viruses that the severity and death rate decreases with time, and I believe this trend is apparent in the data.


                    Of course I could be wrong, but likely only to a degree. It is better than the bogus erratic predictions of the White House and Fauci, and fits the current evidence of the trends in the data, and the history of the behavior of the related viruses..
                    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-04-2020, 07:13 AM.
                    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                    go with the flow the river knows . . .

                    Frank

                    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                      There is about 50% valid in that excuse and about 50% invalid. One could believe it was a distraction and could have hampered him to a certain extent.

                      One can not believe that it is THE reason for the poor response - we have ample text spoken by trump at various briefings over that period to make clear he considered it of little or no consequence. He was buying into conspiracy theories about it, and he was not listening to experts about much of anything, including this.

                      And then of course there is all of February and the first part of March where he was still down playing it and dragging his feet.

                      This is just excuse making. We have what he said about this on record. For those that are willing to let historical records of what he did guide their thinking about this, it is clear Donald Trump being classic Donald Trump is the reason Donald Trump was slow to respond to this.
                      Just to be clear, I don't think Trump was slow in responding, or that he is doing a bad job. I was just pointing out to carp that if he thinks so, then he should be blaming the democrats for distracting Trump and the whole country with the Impeachment fiasco instead of watching what was going on in China.

                      Hindsight is 20/20 and you are just another armchair quarterback.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        The point, Sparko - is that a pandemic was anticipated. Whether it was a super-flu or a coronavirus is largely inconsequential.

                        And I've heard the "it was the impeachment" defense over and over again. Trump's acquittal was February 5. He (and others) were all downplaying the situation through January, which is understandable given the circumstances. Even most of February can be largely forgiven for lack of foresight - it was a condition shared by many. By the 24th of February we had over 50 cases scattered around the nation, community spread beginning to happen, and alarms going off left and right. By then Trump had had at least a month of warnings from his intelligence groups that China was lying about the situation. The WHO had already declared an international emergency. His continued dismissal in the following three weeks, all the way through March 16th, was the critical window in which we lost time that need not have been lost.

                        Could we have shut down the pandemic if we shut down all borders 100% upon immediate detection of the first case? Maybe. But I doubt anyone reasonably suggests that such a thing should have been done. But by the time there were close to 4,000 cases all around the U.S., for Trump to STILL be saying "nothing to fear here," closing borders almost by happenstance, and NOT implementing aggressive action to prepare for the coming pandemic is a reflection on his chaotic and unfocused administration, his poor leadership skills, and his me-centered attitude towards everything.
                        Please, mister Infectious Disease Expert, tell me how they should have handled it differently?

                        Maybe you guys should have let him put up the fence along the border in the first place? Maybe the dems shouldn't have complained when he shut down flights from China and other places.

                        Maybe Trump should have panicked and told us that the world was going to end, initiated Martial Law and placed everyone under house arrest?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          It was not until March 17 that Trump even acknowledged it was a pandemic, AFAICT.

                          THAT is why I fault Trump for his response.
                          gee, right after the WHO declared it a pandemic. Amazing.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
                            My revised numbers (10:30 pm EDT) - 32,284 new cases and 1,321 new deaths. We're still climbing. The numbers are from WORLDOMETER - they give the numbers for every country on the planet. Also states by states, with graphics.
                            Interesting. There actually IS a difference between their numbers and the JHU numbers. I use the latter because they also break them down by county in the U.S. I checked two other sites and none of their numbers align perfectly, although the differences between them are a small fraction of the totals, so it doesn't concern me that much. Clearly the trend lines remain closely aligned, and it may well be that they receive numbers at different times, so their numbers at any given time are slightly skewed. I think that may be the explanation because the drift between the Worldometer numbers and JHU show the same skew as the difference between my numbers and JHU because they end their day 24-hours at mid-night and I end mine at 10:00 PM. Midnight is WAY past my bedtime!
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              Please, mister Infectious Disease Expert, tell me how they should have handled it differently?

                              Maybe you guys should have let him put up the fence along the border in the first place? Maybe the dems shouldn't have complained when he shut down flights from China and other places.

                              Maybe Trump should have panicked and told us that the world was going to end, initiated Martial Law and placed everyone under house arrest?
                              Some things South Korea did immediately:

                              - asked the private sector to develop testing kits
                              - tested everyone entering country
                              - tracked the movement history of infected people for their past two weeks using statements, credit card history, cctv footage, transport pass history and mobile phone data history.
                              - tested infected people’s family and anyone they had contact with for past two weeks
                              - published and routinely updated the findings and warned people when they were nearing a known infection area
                              - set up testing booths in numerous locations based off the data
                              - actively sought out and tested every single person found in known infection zones

                              Most importantly the South Korean government was transparent in what and how they handled things and their citizens started practicing social distancing and other common sense precautions without government intervention. I don’t know if it’s an asian thing, but I feel that the Australian government took a similar approach but we either don’t listen or we lack common sense. South Korea seems to have got through the worst part without closing their borders or locking down their communities.

                              I wonder how North Korea is doing..

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                                Just to be clear, I don't think Trump was slow in responding, or that he is doing a bad job. I was just pointing out to carp that if he thinks so, then he should be blaming the democrats for distracting Trump and the whole country with the Impeachment fiasco instead of watching what was going on in China.

                                Hindsight is 20/20 and you are just another armchair quarterback.
                                Impeachment over 2/5/20 - Trump not removed from office.

                                Period of inexcusable delay and inactivity (IMO) begins after 2/24/20 (starting almost 3 weeks later when community spread was first manifested and continuing to the present). Before then, even the experts were all over the place, so to expect Trump not to be is unrealistic.

                                The two are unrelated. You are ignoring the arguments I am actually making to argue against ones I am not. You are doing it in the usual way: assuming my arguments are the same as "all those liberals" or "all those democrats." They are not, and they actually are seldom aligned with "all those liberals" and "all those democrats."

                                If folks here responded to what I actually said and argued, instead of applying the "liberal/Democrat" label and arguing against what others are saying, we actually might make progress. Instead I spend post after post noting that the responses are not addressing my arguments. I think I'm going to stop making those responses. It's clearly a waste of time.
                                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                                Comment

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