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  • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    What number matters more?
    Both have meaning in context. And any country that has numbers above the world average needs to examine why.

    Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    So if we are doing roughly on par, with most other countries, why mislead with ‘we’re number one’ to make it sound as though everything is falling apart?
    We are not necessarily "on par" with most other countries. We are behind the world average in both deaths and infections per million, and we do not know where we actually sit on the infections side because the U.S. has been woefully inadequate with its testing, which skews the numbers. How - we do not know for sure - but it is almost certain that our infection rate is badly under-counted, putting us further down the list. Despite that, we remain significantly above the world average.

    We are also at the start of the exponential growth curve by all indications. The reason for raising the alarm is to say "if we do not do better with our response, we will be the next Italy." Trump advocating for "getting back to work" is ridiculous on its face.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
      So if we are doing roughly on par, with most other countries, why mislead with ‘we’re number one’ to make it sound as though everything is falling apart?
      Because liberals are desperate to hype this thing up to be as bad as possible in hopes of damaging their President politically.
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
        No. Just Trump's words are sufficient...
        Yes, how dare the President not stoke fears and incite panic by preaching doom and gloom to the nation! A real leader would have had us all so scared that we would be terrified to leave our houses for six-months!
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
          I have mixed feelings on the need for that. Would it necessarily make any difference? Every company able to manufacture those is doing it. Manufacturers have noted that there is no magic bullet to get more machines, some parts of the supply chain need lead time. Ford and countless machine shops can produce the sheet metal parts needed, electronics need to come from somewhere else. If remediation efforts work to drop the spread of the disease (the first line of defense), then the ventilators are not needed. Ventilators are needed because remediation efforts have failed.

          One thing few have commented on is just what the impact of sending the ventilators out of the stockpile would be. Would the malpractice lawyers take a knee after this is done and over with? We will have nurses on new machines that they are unfamiliar with, and little time for practical teaching on the different brand of machine. The need to work extended hours has not shielded health care workers in the past from lawsuits.
          There is an adversary out there that doubles in numbers every few days, and it is sneaky enough to hide its activity for two weeks or so. The one slight advantage that we have had, and squandered, is to see the effects abroad, before it got here.

          Business as usual, as everyone has discovered, is nowhere near up to the task.
          “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
          “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
          “not all there” - you know who you are

          Comment


          • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            Wow...amazing list. Pix, as best I can tell you are picking and choosing your facts, excluding anything that might cast a poor light on Trump.
            Hummm, I wasn’t aware pointing out poor people travel less internationally, this virus is less capable of spreading in warm weather, large amounts of Americans are ignoring CDC and government restrictions, and this virus likes our climate controlled buildings better, was ‘selective facts’. Anything and everything, so you can proclaim, “ORANGE MAN BAD!!!!!” right?

            First, every country in the world is poorer than the U.S., but there is incredible tourism and business travel everywhere. Indeed, if you looked at the stats per million, as you did in your previous posts, the percent of visitors per capita is the highest in some amazingly small countries, not to mention many European countries. I would like to see your source for "the virus doesn't like warm temperatures." This is not the flu, it is a novel coronavirus, and I am not familiar with any study that shows this to be true (though it may be). We are certainly not the only country with major cities and temperature-controlled buildings. Indeed, that is the norm for every major city in the world that I am familiar with. And do you seriously think the U.S. is the only place where people are ignoring the warnings and acting stupidly?
            The old carp hand wave, so he can ignore facts inconvenient to his beliefs.

            First, I said ‘people in poorer countries tend to travel internationally less’, so it’s irrelevant that the US is the richest because the point is richer countries, have more international travelers, which introduced more carriers vs poorer countries.

            Second, sure total international travel is higher in some countries, but you’re yet again ignoring details you dislike. Many of these countries have areas built for tourist where tourist stay in these areas, only interact with a select group of the local population, and rarely venture outside these resorts. Again, details matter.

            Finally, there’s plenty of articles out there saying just that. Search “COVID-19 less capable of spread in warmer temperatures” and you’ll find tons of studies on it.

            https://www.accuweather.com/en/healt...rate-it/707177

            There’s one for your reading pleasure. COVID-19 seems to not like hot, humid climates, very much. Likewise:

            https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/c...l-coronavirus/

            Now I wouldn’t put my hand under a UV lamp, but there is a good possibility that warmer, longer, less cloudy days, may help inactivate COVID-19 the same way it does to SARS, MERS, and the flu.

            If you haven’t noticed yet, we Americans seem to have fun rubbing our noses at the rules. I’ve traveled abroad and have lived in foreign countries. They have vending machines that dispense beer and cigarettes. Why don’t we? Because under age Americans would ignore the rules and use it. Again, details matter.

            The only thing on your list that is known to be true is #4.
            Nope, they are all true, you’re just trying to downplay them because you’re trying to justify your hatred of all things Trump.

            And your list excludes:

            1. U.S. leadership has been (and continues) to downplay the urgency of the virus
            You must be watching different news than I’m seeing.

            2. U.S. testing is significantly behind many other countries, and those countries with extensive testing/tracking are showing significantly lower deaths/million than the U.S. (see South Korea and Germany). They are also showing higher percentages of infection, but that is very likely due to the fact that they are actively looking for them, so their numbers are better. We see the same phenomenon happening in the U.S. when you compare what New York is doing compared to other states.
            US testing is ahead of the majority of the world, with our deaths rate tracking around middle of the pack. Fun to watch you accuse me of ignoring details while you ignore details yourself.

            In addition, the U.S. has taken little action to ensure the availability of PPE and other medical resources, virtually ensuring that we will hit a saturation point where healthcare resources will be saturated.
            Suppliers are currently ramping up production:

            https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/b...get/index.html

            With other, normally non involved groups are retooling to meet demands:

            https://www.cnn.com/style/article/fa...-19/index.html

            Many Americans are also putting their skills to work and sewing some mask together:

            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/b...ks-sewers.html

            It may surprise you, but people are capable of creative solutions, in a crisis situation, without the Government to tell them what to do.

            In a nutshell - bad mismanagement is exacerbating the U.S. problem, which is growing worse at an exponential rate greater than the world average.
            Not according to the stats, but who needs facts, when the Orange man is bad and that is all you need to know?
            Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 03-27-2020, 10:06 AM.
            "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
            GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

            Comment


            • UK deaths up another 181, in one day. The pace is quickening.
              “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
              “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
              “not all there” - you know who you are

              Comment


              • [QUOTE=lilpixieofterror;722119]Hummm, I wasnÂ’t aware pointing out poor people travel less internationally, this virus is less capable of spreading in warm weather, large amounts of Americans are ignoring CDC and government restrictions, and this virus likes our climate controlled buildings better, was ‘selective factsÂ’. Anything and everything, so you can proclaim, “ORANGE MAN BAD!!!!!” right?



                The old carp hand wave, so he can ignore facts inconvenient to his beliefs.

                First, I said ‘people in poorer countries tend to travel internationally less’, so it’s irrelevant that the US is the richest because the point is richer countries, have more international travelers, which introduced more carriers vs poorer countries.

                Second, sure total international travel is higher in some countries, but youÂ’re yet again ignoring details you dislike. Many of these countries have areas built for tourist where tourist stay in these areas, only interact with a select group of the local population, and rarely venture outside these resorts. Again, details matter.

                Finally, there’s plenty of articles out there saying just that. Search “COVID-19 less capable of spread in warmer temperatures” and you’ll find tons of studies on it.

                https://www.accuweather.com/en/healt...rate-it/707177

                ThereÂ’s one for your reading pleasure. COVID-19 seems to not like hot, humid climates, very much. Likewise:

                https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/c...l-coronavirus/

                Now I wouldnÂ’t put my hand under a UB lamp, but there is a good possibility that warmer, longer, less cloudy days, may help inactivate COVID-19 the same way it does to SARS, MERS, and the flu.

                If you havenÂ’t noticed yet, we Americans seem to have fun rubbing our noses at the rules. IÂ’ve traveled abroad and have lived in foreign countries. They have vending machines that dispense beer and cigarettes. Why donÂ’t we? Because under age Americans would ignore the rules and use it. Again, details matter.



                Nope, they are all true, youÂ’re just trying to downplay them because youÂ’re trying to justify your hatred of all things Trump.

                And your list excludes:



                You must be watching different news than IÂ’m seeing.



                US testing is ahead of the majority of the world, with our deaths rate tracking around middle of the pack. Fun to watch you accuse me of ignoring details while you ignore details yourself.



                Suppliers are currently ramping up production:

                https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/b...get/index.html

                With other, normally non involved groups are retooling to meet demands:

                https://www.cnn.com/style/article/fa...-19/index.html

                Many Americans are also putting their skills to work and sewing some mask together:

                https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/b...ks-sewers.html

                It may surprise you, but people are capable of creative solutions, in a crisis situation.



                Not according to the stats, but who needs facts, when the Orange man is bad and that is all you need to know?
                I'm going to leave this. It's going down the usual rathole with you and I lack the patience for the endless cycle of tangents. Feel free to declare the win.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                  I'm going to leave this. It's going down the usual rathole with you and I lack the patience for the endless cycle of tangents. Feel free to declare the win.
                  “ORANGE MAN BAD!!!!”

                  You asked for links and details carp, not my fault you can’t refute them. My links are not even from right wing sources, but CNN and NYT! Everything is Trump’s fault though, even when China lied for months.
                  Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 03-27-2020, 10:18 AM.
                  "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                  GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    Both have meaning in context. And any country that has numbers above the world average needs to examine why.
                    US has largest population of the western world, with third largest world population, with large cities in areas the virus loves most = more infections.

                    This isn’t rocket science.

                    We are not necessarily "on par" with most other countries. We are behind the world average in both deaths and infections per million, and we do not know where we actually sit on the infections side because the U.S. has been woefully inadequate with its testing, which skews the numbers. How - we do not know for sure - but it is almost certain that our infection rate is badly under-counted, putting us further down the list. Despite that, we remain significantly above the world average.
                    Check the numbers for yourself, we’re not at the bottom of per test not the top, but closer to the top than the bottom. Again, details matter.

                    We are also at the start of the exponential growth curve by all indications. The reason for raising the alarm is to say "if we do not do better with our response, we will be the next Italy." Trump advocating for "getting back to work" is ridiculous on its face.
                    Italy is the retirement capital of Europe, we’re not. Again, details matter.
                    Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 03-27-2020, 10:31 AM.
                    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                    Comment


                    • Some are continuing to downplay what is happening. Only fools ignore a clear exponential growth curve when it comes to a virus with a mortality more than sufficient to overrun our medical systems and leave millions dead in its wake.

                      First, the basic facts. An exponential growth curve is a straight line of positive slope on a logarithmic curve. Positive slope, for those less mathematically inclined means if goes up when looking from left to right.

                      These are the current global #cases and #deaths in their logarithmic form:

                      global-log-curves-03272020.jpg

                      Straight line since about the start of the second week in march. Remember, we are not in the clear until well after that curve shows a clear downward trending or 'flattened' form.
                      The US is basically the same (I hope I don't have to explain the slope appears to be less steep only because the horizontal time scale is spread out)

                      US_newcases_log_03272020.jpg

                      and

                      US_deaths_log_03272020.jpg

                      If we 'go back to work' while these curves are still a straight line of positive slope, then by starting the social distancing but abandoning it before it can do its work, we will have done the worst possible thing we could have possibly done. We will have trashed the economy AND we'll still end up with a massive peak and overrun scenarios. We will have wasted ALL our resources AND done almost nothing to lower the death count and the effect of peak infection on our hospitals and our population.

                      We have one shot at this. We can't do it twice.

                      If the presidents actions have been questionable before now, if he abandons the social distancing half-way through the process, then he will have been the most foolish, most destructive president this nation has ever had.

                      IF we ramp up testing sufficiently that we can have high confidence we have identified most of the infected and quarantined them, then it might be possible to open up areas with low intrinsic rates of infection. But only then.
                      Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-27-2020, 10:42 AM.
                      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                        Not even a few hours. The US IS in first place.

                        US: 82,547, China 81,285

                        Assuming the count from China is not fudged.
                        Jim and others, having China’s back. Is it a check or direct deposit?
                        "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                        GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                          Jim and others, having China’s back. Is it a check or direct deposit?
                          You have complained about me saying false things about you when I have not (and detailed exactly how they were not).

                          Now you are hypocritically essentially calling me a traitor to my nation. That is false, uncalled for, and a baldfaced lie because you know it is not true. People who know me and know what I do for a living are perhaps a tad more aware of how absolutely stupid such an accusation is, but even so - you have no excuse.
                          My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                          If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                          This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                            Some are continuing to downplay what is happening. Only fools ignore a clear exponential growth curve when it comes to a virus with a mortality more than sufficient to overrun our medical systems and leave millions dead in its wake.

                            First, the basic facts. An exponential growth curve is a straight line of positive slope on a logarithmic curve. Positive slope, for those less mathematically inclined means if goes up when looking from left to right.

                            These are the current global #cases and #deaths in their logarithmic form:

                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]43616[/ATTACH]

                            Straight line since about the start of the second week in march. Remember, we are not in the clear until well after that curve shows a clear downward trending or 'flattened' form.
                            The US is basically the same (I hope I don't have to explain the slope appears to be less steep only because the horizontal time scale is spread out)

                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]43617[/ATTACH]

                            and

                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]43618[/ATTACH]

                            If we 'go back to work' while these curves are still a straight line of positive slope, then by starting the social distancing but abandoning it before it can do its work, we will have done the worst possible thing we could have possibly done. We will have trashed the economy AND we'll still end up with a massive peak and overrun scenarios. We will have wasted ALL our resources AND done almost nothing to lower the death count and the effect of peak infection on our hospitals and our population.

                            We have one shot at this. We can't do it twice.

                            If the presidents actions have been questionable before now, if he abandons the social distancing half-way through the process, then he will have been the most foolish, most destructive president this nation has ever had.

                            IF we ramp up testing sufficiently that we can have high confidence we have identified most of the infected and quarantined them, then it might be possible to open up areas with low intrinsic rates of infection. But only then.
                            Well - not to be a stick in the mud, but "the worst possible thing we could have possibly done" is Trumpesque in it's hyperbole. We could actually start a campaign to actively promote breathing and coughing on each other so that we maximize infections and deaths and shorten the timeframe of the infection. At the end of it we might have 3-5 million people dead, but the people remaining would be immune (presumably) and we could quickly restart our economy with plenty of jobs for all!
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                              You have complained about me saying false things about you when I have not (and detailed exactly how they were not).

                              Now you are hypocritically essentially calling me a traitor to my nation. That is false, uncalled for, and a baldfaced lie because you know it is not true. People who know me and know what I do for a living are perhaps a tad more aware of how absolutely stupid such an accusation is, but even so - you have no excuse.
                              Hey, I said ‘and others’ so I don’t need to prove you specifically have because other people are.
                              "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                              GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                                Well - not to be a stick in the mud, but "the worst possible thing we could have possibly done" is Trumpesque in it's hyperbole. We could actually start a campaign to actively promote breathing and coughing on each other so that we maximize infections and deaths and shorten the timeframe of the infection. At the end of it we might have 3-5 million people dead, but the people remaining would be immune (presumably) and we could quickly restart our economy with plenty of jobs for all!
                                People are suffering and Trump might not be re-elected. I thought you’d be pleased that your wish came true!
                                Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 03-27-2020, 11:22 AM.
                                "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                                GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                                Comment

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