Coronavirus Outbreak...

[simplicio]

Bother with details? You fail to know the history. The cuts in the Health agencies the reduced the ability to respond and the lack of leadership by Trump to proactively and aggressively respond to the pandemic. We have good examples in South Korea in Japan with adequate and good testing, and other proactive methods to reduce the effects of the pandemic. Even with the early problems with the tests, there was not an adequate response to come up with adequate testing until the past several weeks.

I guess you side with Trump that the pandemic is just like 'the common flu.'

While I think the cuts were ill advised, I don't think the failure to deliver a workable test is entirely attributable to cuts in HHS programs. South Korea and Japan successfully married private and public output which we did not do. They used multiple agencies to develop testing, testing protocols, and run the tests. We have the resources to develop a test fairly quickly.

And many conservatives (like me) have repeatedly claimed that this was the strength of the US system, we did not rely on the CDC or FDA to do everything. South Korea had multiple good tests to choose from, however I do not know the exact details about why one was chosen over the others.

We live in an age of rapid scientific advancement, I wonder at the speed the Chinese unlocked the key to the novel virus (I know the date of 5 Jan, can't remember just what it was other than the general description of molecular map). Could they have done that a decade ago? I think we could have developed vaccines fairly quickly in the past, but I doubt we could have developed the many other tests (like titer tests for immunity)

[Charles]

It is not the golfing thing Carp, it is about your double standard. Trump says something stupid and he is the devil, Obama walked on water. There is little or nothing that Trump could have done different.

So, he had to go golfing in a time of crisis... Interesting.

[carpedm9587]

It is not the golfing thing Carp, it is about your double standard. Trump says something stupid and he is the devil, Obama walked on water. There is little or nothing that Trump could have done different.

I have expressed no double standard. You are linking two things that have nothing to do with one another and then calling it a double standard. And the list of all of the ways Trump could have acted (and could be acting) differently and didn't (isn't) has already been made, multiple times. I won't bother repeating it here - you'll just ignore it again.

Meanwhile, I have pointed out a specific place where you might actually have a double standard. You are outraged at Obama's golfing during an epidemic. Are you likewise outraged at Trump's golfing during an epidemic, or do you have a reason why it was OK for Mr. Trump to do it? Are you going to respond, or keep avoiding the question altogether?

My position is consistent: all people need to take a break now and then - even leaders of the free world. I am not upset at either Mr. Trump or Mr. Obama taking a break for golfing during a pandemic. I realize the optics are bad, but I am not so shallow as to let "optics" drive my thought process.

[rogue06]

It is not the golfing thing Carp, it is about your double standard. Trump says something stupid and he is the devil, Obama walked on water. There is little or nothing that Trump could have done different.

B-but he was the Obamessiah

[carpedm9587]

Looks like San Francisco is seeing results from social distancing. I've also noted that although the number of cases in the world continues to rise, the percentage rise is dropping slightly. The running 2-week average dropped yesterday for the first time. For U.S. cases, the running average for percentage rise dropped every day last week, from 36.84% last Monday to 29.51% yesterday. Meanwhile, worldwide recoveries and (unfortunately) deaths are on the ascent as a percentage. The number of worldwide active cases is still on the rise, but that percentage is dropping as well.

Hopefully, mitigation efforts are what is producing most or all of that effect. If the effect is being caused by a lack of testing, that would be pretty bad. Unfortunately, despite all of Trump's claims to the contrary, U.S. testing lags. The real success story is South Korea. Despite being a free society, they have significantly flattened the curve while simultaneously keeping the death rate amazingly low. That is the one negative in the data I am finding: the effective death rate continues to rise. Worldwide deaths divided by worldwide cases = 4.86%. It has been rising almost every day from a low of 2.05% on February 5th.

[carpedm9587]

B-but he was the Obamessiah

You guys certainly like to insert thoughts and motivations where they do not exist...

[shunyadragon]

Last time you claimed Trump said it was just like the common cold. Are you finally walking that back?

And aside from the fact that over 60,000 people died of the flu last year, the cuts were never enacted.

No walking back. Post you referenced:

Remember Trump said, " . . . it is like the common flu . . " Maybe he should ask a few coronavirus victims what it is like and invite them to the White House for fund raiser.

Are you misquoting me?

[rogue06]

No walking back. Post you referenced:



Are you misquoting me?

My apologies I could have sworn it said "common cold"

[Mountain Man]

You should ask Birx that question:


https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020...ost-perfectly/

Note the words "best case scenario".

Yes, she seems to have flip-flopped from last week when she said that what we're seeing in the real world doesn't seem to support such dire predictions. And even Fauci said that such predictions could very easily be wrong.

"Listen to the experts!" they say. But what do we do when the experts contradict themselves?

[carpedm9587]

Yes, she seems to have flip-flopped from last week when she said that what we're seeing in the real world doesn't seem to support such dire predictions. And even Fauci said that such predictions could very easily be wrong.

"Listen to the experts!" they say. But what do we do when the experts contradict themselves?

They're only "contradicting themselves" if they say opposite things about the same thing based on the same assumptions. If their message changes in the face of changing information, that is called "appropriate, data-based messaging."

[Charles]

They're only "contradicting themselves" if they say opposite things about the same thing based on the same assumptions. If their message changes in the face of changing information, that is called "appropriate, data-based messaging."

But, but... Contradiction sounds better if what is being said is challenging.

[oxmixmudd]

Before my main comment: I note that Germany has followed the course I expected for a nation testing widely and early. A very low early mortality gradually growing int the typical measured minimum mortality seen around the world. Germany is now also driving in to that same 1%+ mortality:


682/68180 = .01000293 = 1%

----


The world passed 800,000 cases today. The US is creeping up on 200,000, 1/4 the cases in he world. We currently have 1/5 the total cases in the world.

1/5 and heading to 1/4 of the cases In the world. But thankfully, so far, only 1/10th of the deaths.

These are the consequences of a leader focused on himself alone. These are the consequences of a party focused on maintaining power through a leader focused on himself alone. These are the consequences of ignorant masses rallying around a leader focused on himself alone. These are the consequences of those same masses being manipulated and focused on a very small subset of moral issues and being manipulated by certain voices to value those issues above all others, and as a consequence ignoring the bulk of the wisdom and moral teaching of the scriptures of the religion the majority of these same masses profess to hold.

There is some good news. The logarithmic growth curves for the world and for the US are showing a sight turn down in slope. Meaning the doubling time is becoming longer - finally. The US curve shows a clear rounding - the first fruits as it were of our social distancing efforts:

US_cases_log_03312020.jpg

Deaths too shows a rounding, but has only just returned to the slope of a week ago, but backing of the increasingly steep curve that was showing up just a short while ago:

US_deaths_log_03312020.PNG

But compare this to a nation weeks ahead of us:

S_Korea_cases_log_03312020.jpg

S. Korea - a nation that we EASILY could have matched had our leaders been men of integrity, The have a democratic government with similar difficulties and infighting to our own, yet intelligence, and true leadership (e.g. the capability of rallying a nation TOGETHER to fight this thing) enabled them to respond effectively and quickly.

Compare those two curves. Does that not sicken you? To realize that all we would have needed was a leader like any of those that came before him. Any one of Obama, Clinton, Bush II, Bush I, or Reagan would have been more likely to see this coming and respond to it forcefully and with a uniting voice. That curve is a testimony to the consequences of poor leadership in a time of crisis. An objective, non-political, non-partisan exposure of the abject failure and foolishness that has gripped the government of this nation since January 2017.

But other nation have done poorly too.

Well look at some of the worst:

Italy:

Italy_cases_log_03312020.jpg

Spain:

Spain_cases_log_03312020.jpg

France:

France_cases_log_03312020.jpg


None of them have the so late a beginning to a decline in exponential spread.

[carpedm9587]

The world passed 800,000 cases today. The US is creeping up on 200,000, 1/4 the cases in he world. We currently have 1/5 the total cases in the world.

1/5 and heading to 1/4 of the cases In the world. But thankfully, so far, only 1/10th of the deaths.

These are the consequences of a leader focused on himself alone. These are the consequences of a party focused on maintaining power through a leader focused on himself alone. These are the consequences of ignorant masses rallying around a leader focused on himself alone. These are the consequences of those same masses being manipulated and focused on a very small subset of moral issues and being manipulated by certain voices to value those issues above all others, and as a consequence ignoring the bulk of the wisdom and moral teaching of the scriptures of the religion the majority of these same masses profess to hold.

There is some good news. The logarithmic growth curves for the world and for the US are showing a sight turn down in slope. Meaning the doubling time is becoming longer - finally. The US curve shows a clear rounding - the first fruits as it were of our social distancing efforts:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43771[/ATTACH]

Deaths too shows a rounding, but has only just returned to the slope of a week ago, but backing of the increasingly steep curve that was showing up just a short while ago:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43772[/ATTACH]

But compare this to a nation weeks ahead of us:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43773[/ATTACH]

S. Korea - a nation that we EASILY could have matched had our leaders been men of integrity, The have a democratic government with similar difficulties and infighting to our own, yet intelligence, and true leadership (e.g. the capability of rallying a nation TOGETHER to fight this thing) enabled them to respond effectively and quickly.

Compare those two curves. Does that not sicken you? To realize that all we would have needed was a leader like any of those that came before him. Any one of Obama, Clinton, Bush II, Bush I, or Reagan would have been more likely to see this coming and respond to it forcefully and with a uniting voice. That curve is a testimony to the consequences of poor leadership in a time of crisis. An objective, non-political, non-partisan exposure of the abject failure and foolishness that has gripped the government of this nation since January 2017.

Excellent analysis. Here's hoping the curve stays downward, and is because of the reality on the ground and not the lack of adequate testing referenced by several of the governors.

[seer]

You guys certainly like to insert thoughts and motivations where they do not exist...

Like you just did with me on the Philosophy board?

[oxmixmudd]

Excellent analysis. Here's hoping the curve stays downward, and is because of the reality on the ground and not the lack of adequate testing referenced by several of the governors.

my 'amen' was for the hope it is a real downturn, not your assessment of my analysis ...