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  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post


    Fatality rate for the average person is probably around 1 in 10000. It's not that serious.
    That is so wrong it is truly hard to fathom.

    What you have just quoted is 10x less than the mortality rate for the common FLU (Influenza) : 0.1%, 1/1000

    The current global Mortality rate is right around 3.3% #dead/#cases (3 in 100), 5.7% #dead/(#dead + #recovered) - Almost 6 in 100. In Italy morality is 2.5%, in S. Korea it is the lowest in a region with a significant outbreak: 0.6%, which may well reflect both their aggressive testing and their high quality medical care.

    But this mortality rate is not the only issue here: This disease tends to produce serious pneumonia. And without good medical care, the mortality goes way up. For example:


    In Italy:

    - Among the 3,916 active cases, 2,394 (61%) are hospitalized, 462 of which (representing 12% of active cases) are in intensive care.
    - Among the 720 closed cases, 523 (73%) have recovered, 197 (27%) have died.


    Think about what that means if it is not contained. The number of hospital beds required to care for 15 to 20% serious condition (which tends to be what has been tracking globally, Italy is much worse than what has been the norm so far) with unchecked community spread is unfathomable. If 10 million are infected (a mere 3% of the US population), we need 1 to 2 million hospital beds to care for them and prevent a mortality rate over 5%.

    There are shortages of medical protective equipment because a lot of it is manufactured in china.

    To top it off, the transmissability of this virus is more than 2x that of the Flu - an R of 2 to 3 vs. the Flu's 1.28

    I have been tracking this thing daily.

    Further, mortality for people over 80 is very, very high. 15%. Do you have uncles, grandparents, parents that fit that demographic? Are they living in close communities like nursing homes or retirement communities?

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/...aphic-factors/

    Source: above

    The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.

    © Copyright Original Source



    Here is a link to the basic stats for today, and on the page you'll find a lot more information.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-06-2020 at 11:30 AM.
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  3. #202
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Stop listening to idiots. What you have just quoted is 10x less than the mortality rate for the common FLU (Influenza) : 0.1%, 1/1000

    The current global Mortality rate is right around 3.3% #dead/#cases (3 in 100), 5.7% #dead/(#dead + #recovered) - Almost 6 in 100. In Italy morality is 2.5%, in S. Korea it is the lowest in a region with a significant outbreak: 0.6%, which may well reflect both their aggressive testing and their high quality medical care.

    But this mortality rate is not the only issue here: This disease tends to produce serious pneumonia. And without good medical care, the mortality goes way up. For example:


    In Italy:

    - Among the 3,916 active cases, 2,394 (61%) are hospitalized, 462 of which (representing 12% of active cases) are in intensive care.
    - Among the 720 closed cases, 523 (73%) have recovered, 197 (27%) have died.


    Think about what that means if it is not contained. The number of hospital beds required to care for 15 to 20% serious condition (which tends to be what has been tracking globally, Italy is much worse than what has been the norm so far) with unchecked community spread is unfathomable. If 10 million are infected (a mere 3% of the US population), we need 1 to 2 million hospital beds to care for them and prevent a mortality rate over 5%.

    There are shortages of medical protective equipment because a lot of it is manufactured in china.

    To top it off, the transmissability of this virus is more than 2x that of the Flu - an R of 2 to 3 vs. the Flu's 1.28

    I have been tracking this thing daily.

    Further, mortality for people over 80 is very, very high. 15%. Do you have uncles, grandparents, parents that fit that demographic? Are they living in close communities like nursing homes or retirement communities?

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/...aphic-factors/

    Source: above

    The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.

    © Copyright Original Source



    Here is a link to the basic stats for today, and on the page you'll find a lot more information.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Yup, IIRC that explains why the average age for those who have died is around 80 years old. It is also the reason that there were 9 deaths in Seattle (the victims were residents of a nursing home).

    Most experts seem to agree that the fatality rate is likely up to 10 times higher than what we see with the flu. So if we have, say 20,000 deaths from the flu in any given year (and the number is usually a bit higher), that means we can expect 200,000 deaths from Corona-19. In a population of 330 million that may not seem like much but you can't approach this like a bean counter.

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  4. #203
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    The current global Mortality rate is right around 3.3% #dead/#cases (3 in 100), 5.7% #dead/(#dead + #recovered) - Almost 6 in 100. In Italy morality is 2.5%, in S. Korea it is the lowest in a region with a significant outbreak: 0.6%,
    Obviously overestimated.

    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    With some thought it is obvious that this is the case, and that even if governments wanted to test everyone who potentially could have caught it from a known patients, there are not enough testing kits in the world to test all the cases. China did not have enough testing kits, and no one else in the world has too.

    This means that the reported fatality rate, number of patients, R0, etc are all useless numbers.
    Stop using useless numbers, they're all useless.
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

  5. Amen Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  6. #204
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    Yep... there are people who have gotten COVID-19, suffered only mild symptoms, and recovered without treatment or complications. We obviously don't know how many of those cases are in the "wild", and they're not included in mortality statistics.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
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  7. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    That is so wrong it is truly hard to fathom.

    What you have just quoted is 10x less than the mortality rate for the common FLU (Influenza) : 0.1%, 1/1000

    The current global Mortality rate is right around 3.3% #dead/#cases (3 in 100), 5.7% #dead/(#dead + #recovered) - Almost 6 in 100. In Italy morality is 2.5%, in S. Korea it is the lowest in a region with a significant outbreak: 0.6%, which may well reflect both their aggressive testing and their high quality medical care.

    But this mortality rate is not the only issue here: This disease tends to produce serious pneumonia. And without good medical care, the mortality goes way up. For example:


    In Italy:

    - Among the 3,916 active cases, 2,394 (61%) are hospitalized, 462 of which (representing 12% of active cases) are in intensive care.
    - Among the 720 closed cases, 523 (73%) have recovered, 197 (27%) have died.


    Think about what that means if it is not contained. The number of hospital beds required to care for 15 to 20% serious condition (which tends to be what has been tracking globally, Italy is much worse than what has been the norm so far) with unchecked community spread is unfathomable. If 10 million are infected (a mere 3% of the US population), we need 1 to 2 million hospital beds to care for them and prevent a mortality rate over 5%.

    There are shortages of medical protective equipment because a lot of it is manufactured in china.

    To top it off, the transmissability of this virus is more than 2x that of the Flu - an R of 2 to 3 vs. the Flu's 1.28

    I have been tracking this thing daily.

    Further, mortality for people over 80 is very, very high. 15%. Do you have uncles, grandparents, parents that fit that demographic? Are they living in close communities like nursing homes or retirement communities?

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/...aphic-factors/

    Source: above

    The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.

    © Copyright Original Source



    Here is a link to the basic stats for today, and on the page you'll find a lot more information.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    I love the stoic Christians, "not a big deal" for a projected quarter million to one million US deaths, because of inaccuracies in the mortality rate.

  8. #206
    42nd Mojave Year DesertBerean's Avatar
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    Yesterday we had someone pop into a local closed FB group cal and warned us there was a COV19 case here. Other members questioned him and the story apparently changed - I didn't see where - and he deleted his claim. The report got out anyway and spread out at least 30 miles away. City had to put out an official statement that there weren't any cases and explain the protocol for announcing such. Guy who started it all is keeping quiet.

    Argh. Could have been worse...Victorville Costco was jumping yesterday with lines of people buying toilet paper as.well as water and hand sanitizers. Etc.

  9. #207
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplicio View Post
    I love the stoic Christians, "not a big deal" for a projected quarter million to one million US deaths, because of inaccuracies in the mortality rate.
    Speak less, listen more, simple one.

    Biological anthropologist Dr. Jennifer Cole at Royal Holloway, University of London, U.K., said in a statement: "Early estimates of fatality rates tend to be higher and then drop as the outbreak progresses. This is mainly because early figures are based on the more severe cases only—those that seek hospital treatment—and so don't capture mild cases.

    "It's not until later in the outbreak, when large numbers of people who wouldn't normally have sought healthcare, such as all the passengers on the quarantined ships, everyone an infected person has been in contact with, or the entire population of a town is tested that more accurate numbers start to emerge and the figures settle down."
    https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...advice-1490926
    We can reasonably estimate that the fatality rate is overstated by 10 to 100 times, with 100 times giving a fatality rate of about 1 in 10000, as demi has said.
    Last edited by demi-conservative; 03-06-2020 at 11:23 PM.
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  10. #208
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Speak less, listen more, simple one.



    We can reasonably estimate that the fatality rate is overstated by 10 to 100 times, with 100 times giving a fatality rate of about 1 in 10000, as demi has said.
    Holloway is correct when she said "Early estimates of fatality rates tend to be higher and then drop as the outbreak progresses." That is why many experts figure that present estimates of over 2% will likely drop down to about 1% as more testing is done which will reveal a lot more instances of people having the virus. But to then declare that the early estimates are something like ten to one hundred times too high is both ridiculous and bizarre. There is absolutely no evidence that the early estimates are anywhere near that far off.

    At 1% the fatality rate will be nearly ten times that of what we typically experience with the flu and here in the U.S. between 12,000 up to 60,000 people die of the flu each year. This means that we are likely to experience somewhere between 120,000 to 600,000 deaths from the coronavirus.

    I'm always still in trouble again

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  11. #209
    tWebber Christianbookworm's Avatar
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    One day, there will be no more disease or death or mourning or pain.
    If it weren't for the Resurrection of Jesus, we'd all be in DEEP TROUBLE!

  12. Amen DesertBerean, RumTumTugger amen'd this post.
  13. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christianbookworm View Post
    One day, there will be no more disease or death or mourning or pain.
    True, life on earth will end in about 1 billion years and then there will be no more death or disease.

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