Coronavirus Outbreak...

[simplicio]

That was the point. We're making guesses based on incomplete data. We probably won't have solid numbers for several months.

I think that was true a few weeks ago. But we do have enough data to make an informed decision now, and probably enough information ten days ago.

[lilpixieofterror]

Because that was what you were arguing, whether you meant it or not!

No it wasn’t. That’s your strawman of what I said, troll.

[carpedm9587]

Where did you get the idea that I was advocating waiting to take action?

From your posts and your statements. You seem to be pretty staunchly in the "everyone is over-reacting camp." Is that a misconception on my part? Most of your posts appear to be in that vein.

[carpedm9587]

So why should I listen to a single opinion you have, when it is a very easy task to spin almost any President, as among the worst?

And thatÂ’s your opinion, not based in anything, but your opinion. Again, people said the same thing about Obama or lots of presidents. In realty, the US position really is no different today than in 2009 and if China or Russia slip in anywhere, the blame will sit at the feet of presidents, administrations, business leaders, and congressional members over the past 30 years, that have sold us down the river, to make a quick buck.

Again, your opinion, but you keep ignoring the presses role in the fight. Is it true or false that the press has lied to the public? Is it true or false that the press has created many issues whole cloth, without bothering to gather the facts first? Trump didnÂ’t make the press turn a bunch of teenagers into racist villains, sent Twitter mobs on these kids, get them threatened, harassed, and tried to destroy their lives. The press did it all on their own. Closing your eyes and ignoring these details will not make it disappear. Trump was elected because of the abuses of the press (among other groups). A detail you ignore.

Sorry, closing your eyes and making excuses for the media will not make it go away. The media saw a kid wearing a Trump hat, saw a video that was edited to give the narrative they wanted to hear, didnÂ’t bother to fact check, than ran with it. This is just one of the many well documented cases of the media not fact checking and instead actively working at destroying people. Keep those fingers jammed in your ears all you want, it will not go away.

Keep those fingers jammed in those ears.

“I’m not making excuses but....”

Lots of opinion, little in the way of facts.

That Trump is nothing new, he is a disrupter, elected to stir up the status que, like a lot of presidents were. That it is very easy to make almost any President look bad, if I am selective with my facts and figures.

ItÂ’s pretty easy, Americans are not happy with their institutions.

There is that ability to not notice the forest you are in and to lose the point. Many of the big stories of the past few years have been based on lies. Is that true or false or was everyone seeing things when the media tried to destroy a kid, for the crime of wearing a Trump hat and attending a pro life event?

Thanks for the chat, Pix. It's been interesting.

[carpedm9587]

Good points

The coronavirus has an infection rate about twice that of the flu. R0 between 2 and 3 vs the flu's 1.28


The claim was that the coronavirus mortality was 0.01%, not 1%. 1/10th that of the flu. It's a ludicrous claim

The coronavirus, in addition to a mortality 10 or more times that of the flu, tends to put a larger percentage in serious to critical condition.

As I've pointed out in other posts, a bad flu outbreak pushes the medical system to its limits as it is. Unchecked the Corona virus requires at least 10x the capacity to treat serious respiratory symptoms than currently exist.

Ahhh... I missed the .01% claim. Most claims I have seen suggest a low of 1% and a high of 3%. At 0.01% and flu-like infection rates, I doubt any modern medical facility would be overrun. At 1%, and without significant action to curb the infection rate, medical resources can be easily overrun. West Virginia finally announced its first case, but apparently there have only been 84 tests performed in West Virginia. The national numbers are climbing. Fortunately, not as fast as I thought they might. Perhaps all of the social distancing is having a significant impact. I certainly hope so.

ETA: As of tonight, the total number of tests performed in the U.S. is less than 60,000. Those numbers are consistent across multiple sites. West Virginia, which just declared its first case, has had only 84 tests executed. This is two months less two days after the first case was detected in Washington, and over four months after the emergence of this virus was fairly well known. I don't see how anyone can call this anything less than gross mismanagement at a critical time. How widely this virus has spread is simply unknown - because we have had comparatively little testing done.

With about six months of flu season and an average of 34 million infected each year, the average number of infections per day over that period is over 185K. That means 185K people, on average, exhibiting flu-like symptoms each day, many of which are very similar to Covid-19. We now have cases scattered all across America. The man who runs a checkout at the small grocery store 5 miles down the road is now in critical condition - a confirmed Covid-19 case. Community transmission is not just possible, it's bloody likely. This level of testing is unacceptable and Americans everywhere should be, IMO, outraged about it.

And what do we get for leadership? More lies. Now the latest one is "I always saw this pandemic coming." Even when we have video of Trump answering a direct question about whether or not he thought this was likely to be a pandemic with a clear "no," he lies - and then doubles down on the lie. As recently as March 14th the message was "we have it all under control." Now it's "we don't have it under control" with no acknowledgement whatsoever of his previous errors and bad suggestions to the American people.

November 3rd cannot come soon enough. This man needs to be sent packing.

[Mountain Man]

From your posts and your statements. You seem to be pretty staunchly in the "everyone is over-reacting camp." Is that a misconception on my part? Most of your posts appear to be in that vein.

There's a lot of territory between "everybody is overreacting" and "we shouldn't do anything at all".

[carpedm9587]

There's a lot of territory between "everybody is overreacting" and "we shouldn't do anything at all".

So...out of curiosity...what do you think is an appropriate level of reaction? Specifically, what should we (should should we not) be doing?

[lilpixieofterror]

Thanks for the chat, Pix. It's been interesting.

Thus arguing with you is an exercise in nailing Jello to a wall.

[simplicio]

Thus arguing with you is an exercise in nailing Jello to a wall.

And how would you describe discussing with you?

[simplicio]

SRS-CoV-1 hit in 2002, SARS-CoV-2 is what we are facing now. What did we learn about the virus from twenty years ago that we can apply now, for an informed decision making?

We know that they persist in the environment similarly, so environmental precautions are similar. But there are significant differences, twenty years ago, more cases were spread in the hospital setting; persons shed viruses differently: after they were symptomatic. A full month ago, it was suggested that was the case.

Here is a timeline: https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

It took 5 months from the first cases, when doctors in China wondered what they were facing to the WHO issuing an alert. And the first cases hit the west in March, Toronto became a hotspot. The virus was under control by July, four months.

I wonder how the timeline for SARS-CoV-2 will look.

[Tassman]

That was the point. We're making guesses based on incomplete data. We probably won't have solid numbers for several months.

Indeed! And the reason there is “incomplete data” is that as of today only 47,000 tests have been run in the US due to the shocking lack of testing kits.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...reasing-2020-3

[simplicio]

Indeed! And the reason there is “incomplete data” is that as of today only 47,000 tests have been run in the US due to the shocking lack of testing kits.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...reasing-2020-3

At least we have the Japanese and Koreans, to gather data for us! Seems South Korea is tailoring its response to the prevalence of the disease in an area, not a one size fits all approach. We are facing a classic math problem which starts with

"the disease doubles every four days. If we have 50 cases today, how many cases will there be in 12 days? How many cases did we have one week ago?"

Should we model our plan on S Koreas? https://time.com/5804899/u-s-coronav...ollow-s-korea/

recommendations:

1. Testing
2. communication and coordination (What was the president arguing?)
3. social distancing
4. Protect health workers
5. Plan for rise in cases

I see Australia has very few cases outside of Sydney.

[mikewhitney]

SRS-CoV-1 hit in 2002, SARS-CoV-2 is what we are facing now. What did we learn about the virus from twenty years ago that we can apply now, for an informed decision making?

We know that they persist in the environment similarly, so environmental precautions are similar. But there are significant differences, twenty years ago, more cases were spread in the hospital setting; persons shed viruses differently: after they were symptomatic. A full month ago, it was suggested that was the case.

Here is a timeline: https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

It took 5 months from the first cases, when doctors in China wondered what they were facing to the WHO issuing an alert. And the first cases hit the west in March, Toronto became a hotspot. The virus was under control by July, four months.

I wonder how the timeline for SARS-CoV-2 will look.

We learned that these viruses come and go. We are reminded to wash our hands and to avoid touching our faces. We should remember not to overreact and shutdown the economy for a virus that might be a little worse than the flu.

We are starting to learn that there is a the trend to shun those people who are trying to bring sanity back into America.

Another way to look at the Wuhan virus is that it is a media driven epidemic. Once the media goes away, the virus will virtually disappear.

[Tassman]

We learned that these viruses come and go. We are reminded to wash our hands and to avoid touching our faces. We should remember not to overreact and shutdown the economy for a virus that might be a little worse than the flu.

We are starting to learn that there is a the trend to shun those people who are trying to bring sanity back into America.

Another way to look at the Wuhan virus is that it is a media driven epidemic. Once the media goes away, the virus will virtually disappear.

Seriously!

You are behind in toeing the party-line line. Trump has reversed himself - surprise, surprise. "On Monday, Trump acknowledged that the situation is "bad," that the virus is not under control, that the country might well be heading into a recession, and that American life would not get back to normal for months".

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/p...rus/index.html

[simplicio]

We learned that these viruses come and go. We are reminded to wash our hands and to avoid touching our faces. We should remember not to overreact and shutdown the economy for a virus that might be a little worse than the flu.

We are starting to learn that there is a the trend to shun those people who are trying to bring sanity back into America.

Another way to look at the Wuhan virus is that it is a media driven epidemic. Once the media goes away, the virus will virtually disappear.

Why would trump want to call it an emergency?

Yes, even the Spanish flu came and went. But before it went away, it left a trail of millions dead. So it leaves my question on if life is really precious.