Donald Trump and the Coronavirus

[simplicio]

I agree that is a possibility - but if there is one thing that Trump IS a genius at it is playing the press and the media. He knows the psychology of media and he knows how to spin it to his advantage. He has lost his rallies and now he has seen an opportunity to get in front of a national audience daily and press his campaign in the form of a "news briefing." Meanwhile, his political opponents are seriously hamstrung for media coverage and to put forward their counters to the Trump lies.

Unfortunately, it is a reality that lies repeated often enough are accepted as truth by a fairly significant part of the population - and this is the fact that Mr. Trump is counting on.

But just how long can it last? Like the economy, we are extremely forgiving when times are good. But the reality is that if or when things get bad in red state America, people there will not be able to look askance to the response. Yes that is a prediction, based on a hunch (hey, intiution serves Trump so well on scientific matters....)

I doubt such staunch Trump supporters like de Santis of Florida, who kept the beaches open, will escape unscathed either. They are at 5500 cases in Florida as of yesterday and increasing by about 700 per day. And The Gov has seen fit to impose stay at home recommendations in only a few counties. Since it is likely to spin out of control, then the hospitals across that state will be in worse shape than NYC.

Texas also is in a weak position.

I live in western NY, and NYC is like another country (nice place to visit, but...). Covid 19 is still a world away, some long term care facilities here are getting their first cases now. We know, from Wuhan, Lombardy, Iran and many other examples what the situation will be like in the mid size cities like Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Utica, Albany:dead laying like cordwood waiting to be hauled away. (They are looking for volunteers in Brooklyn to haul dead bodies). The small rural hospitals although few, are last on the wish list. Rural America is Trump country. WHen volunteers are needed to haul away dead bodies, even small town America will question things. But small town America will not stand for loved ones being hauled away in open trucks town trucks, which is a possibility.

Combine that with Chinese factories coming on line now, and a stock market bump, with the prospect of American manufacturing being hampered by corona virus, then November will not bode well for Trump.

States are paying 50,000 bucks for ventilators were selling for $20,000 dollars a month ago. PPE is also selling at inflated prices. The federal position is to let states compete with each other.

My prediction: Anger from conservatives at the federal response. The libertarians will fare worse.

[simplicio]

I noticed you flat ignored that as late as Jan 14th, the WHO was reporting that the virus wasn’t spreading human to human. That was a lie, they had to have known for months before that it was, now let’s try this again, did any response plan include a country flat out lying to the entire world about a new disease spreading in country? Yes or no? In all likelihood, the virus was already here before January and was likely already starting to spread person to person. Nobody knew there was a problem because nobody was told in the early stages there was a problem.

Yes, they knew for months before 14 Jan of the human to human transmission of this bug. Just how many months lead time did they have on this, because from what little I know about it, it was in December that they started to get cases of this strange pneumonia.

I do not know the response plan details, but other countries such as Singapore and South Korea were not hamstrung by the lies China told.

Note Seattle, Washington. They were pretty slow to pick up on the transmission of the zoonotic disease, which was the emphasis then. But zoonotic diseases are dangerous, we have many examples in which they have spread (avian flu and swine flu are named for a host species of mammal).

NYC had its first case on 1 Mar, four weeks later the hospital system is breaking down. On 1 Mar Tweb posters were downplaying it, our President was declaring it under control.

On 1 Mar Singapore and South Korea were getting it under control, demonstrating a public health response worthy of a 21st century developed country.

[carpedm9587]

But just how long can it last? Like the economy, we are extremely forgiving when times are good. But the reality is that if or when things get bad in red state America, people there will not be able to look askance to the response. Yes that is a prediction, based on a hunch (hey, intiution serves Trump so well on scientific matters....)

I doubt such staunch Trump supporters like de Santis of Florida, who kept the beaches open, will escape unscathed either. They are at 5500 cases in Florida as of yesterday and increasing by about 700 per day. And The Gov has seen fit to impose stay at home recommendations in only a few counties. Since it is likely to spin out of control, then the hospitals across that state will be in worse shape than NYC.

Texas also is in a weak position.

I live in western NY, and NYC is like another country (nice place to visit, but...). Covid 19 is still a world away, some long term care facilities here are getting their first cases now. We know, from Wuhan, Lombardy, Iran and many other examples what the situation will be like in the mid size cities like Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Utica, Albany:dead laying like cordwood waiting to be hauled away. (They are looking for volunteers in Brooklyn to haul dead bodies). The small rural hospitals although few, are last on the wish list. Rural America is Trump country. WHen volunteers are needed to haul away dead bodies, even small town America will question things. But small town America will not stand for loved ones being hauled away in open trucks town trucks, which is a possibility.

Combine that with Chinese factories coming on line now, and a stock market bump, with the prospect of American manufacturing being hampered by corona virus, then November will not bode well for Trump.

States are paying 50,000 bucks for ventilators were selling for $20,000 dollars a month ago. PPE is also selling at inflated prices. The federal position is to let states compete with each other.

My prediction: Anger from conservatives at the federal response. The libertarians will fare worse.

Vermont had the highest mortality rate since the outset of this, but the reason was that we have had senior living centers hit with the virus. Most of the deaths have been from senior living situations. Our numbers are still low, but then again, we are a small state. We are 51st in population (including DC and territories) and 45th in area. In the last two days we went from:

• Most infections: 41st -> 44th
• Most deaths: 25th -> 28th
• Mortality Rate: still 1st, but Louisiana is closing in
• Infections/capita: 10th -> 11th
• Deaths/capita: 4th -> 5th
• Infections/Square Mile: 23rd -> 25th
• Deaths/Square Mile: 12th -> 15th

So efforts here are panning out, but then again we are a fairly rural state. As with most states, the highest infection counts are coming from the most populous areas.

[Roy]

I noticed you flat ignored that as late as Jan 14th, the WHO was reporting that the virus wasn’t spreading human to human. That was a lie, they had to have known for months before that it was, ...

How can the WHO have known for months before Jan 14th that coronavirus was spreading from human to human when the first case was apparently in late November and the first identified case in December?

[lilpixieofterror]

I question the highlighting above. Source? First, months before?, the earliest known possible case was ~Dec 12?.

Second, this is the time line with WHO, which is documented.

Source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf

SUMMARY
Event highlights from 31 December 2019 to 20 January 2020:
• On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia
unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. From
31 December 2019 through 3 January 2020, a total of 44 case-patients with pneumonia of
unknown etiology were reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. During this
reported period, the causal agent was not identified.
• On 11 and 12 January 2020, WHO received further detailed information from the National
Health Commission China that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood
market in Wuhan City.
• The Chinese authorities identified a new type of coronavirus, which was isolated on 7
January 2020.
• On 12 January 2020, China shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus for
countries to use in developing specific diagnostic kits.
• On 13 January 2020, the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand reported the first imported case
of lab-confirmed novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
• On 15 January 2020, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (MHLW) reported an
imported case of laboratory-confirmed 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan,
Hubei Province, China.
• On 20 January 2020, National IHR Focal Point (NFP) for Republic of Korea reported the first
case of novel coronavirus in the Republic of Korea.
Situation update:
• As of 20 January 2020, 282 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV have been reported from four
countries including China (278 cases), Thailand (2 cases), Japan (1 case) and the Republic of
Korea (1 case);
• Cases in Thailand, Japan and Republic of Korea were exported from Wuhan City, China;
• Among the 278 cases confirmed in China, 258 cases were reported from Hubei Province, 14
from Guangdong Province, five from Beijing Municipality and one from Shanghai Municipality;
ZIKA VIRUS
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
SITUATION REPORT - 1
21 JANUARY 2020
2
• Of the 278 confirmed cases, 51 cases are severely ill1
, 12 are in critical condition2
• Six deaths have been reported from Wuhan City

© Copyright Original Source

How long does the disease take to show symptoms Shuny? How long can a person be not showing signs of the China Flu and be spreading the illness? A month is a long time for a disease to spread unchecked and your excuses for China and their lies, would be amusing if it wasn’t going to cost lives. Thanks China and liberals for excusing it all away.

[lilpixieofterror]

Do you seriously believe the CDC intentionally lied about the pandemic, knowing the information was false?

No, I’m saying the Chinese wasted valuable time by lying to everyone and they have much of the blame for this. Why do you keep trying to excuse away China Carp? Are you hoping to use this to blame Trump?

[lilpixieofterror]

How can the WHO have known for months before Jan 14th that coronavirus was spreading from human to human when the first case was in late November?

My dear sweet Roy,

November, December, and January

How many month is that? How long do you think it took China to figure out human to human transmission was taking place? I’m sure they knew and were warned, by early December that a deadly virus was spreading and likely spreading human to human, yet what actions were taken to warn other countries of this danger? Any at all?

[carpedm9587]

No, I’m saying the Chinese wasted valuable time by lying to everyone and they have much of the blame for this. Why do you keep trying to excuse away China Carp? Are you hoping to use this to blame Trump?

Your statement:

I noticed you flat ignored that as late as Jan 14th, the WHO was reporting that the virus wasn’t spreading human to human. That was a lie, they had to have known for months before that it was...

Given that a lie is "a false statement made with the intent to deceive," and you also stated "they had to have known for months" (which is also impossible, given the pandemic was not even 2 months old at the time), would you like to explain how this does NOT mean you have claimed the CDC was intentionally trying to deceive people...? Did you misspeak? Post without thinking? Have you changed your mind? These statements, made by you, appear to be pretty clear.

[lilpixieofterror]

Yes, they knew for months before 14 Jan of the human to human transmission of this bug. Just how many months lead time did they have on this, because from what little I know about it, it was in December that they started to get cases of this strange pneumonia.

I do not know the response plan details, but other countries such as Singapore and South Korea were not hamstrung by the lies China told.

Note Seattle, Washington. They were pretty slow to pick up on the transmission of the zoonotic disease, which was the emphasis then. But zoonotic diseases are dangerous, we have many examples in which they have spread (avian flu and swine flu are named for a host species of mammal).

NYC had its first case on 1 Mar, four weeks later the hospital system is breaking down. On 1 Mar Tweb posters were downplaying it, our President was declaring it under control.

On 1 Mar Singapore and South Korea were getting it under control, demonstrating a public health response worthy of a 21st century developed country.

And has other countries done as well? What is the difference between the US and Asia? I can tell you one thing, they listen better. How many South Koreans do you suppose were partying on the beach?

[lilpixieofterror]

Your statement:

I noticed you flat ignored that as late as Jan 14th, the WHO was reporting that the virus wasn’t spreading human to human. That was a lie, they had to have known for months before that it was...

Given that a lie is "a false statement made with the intent to deceive," and you also stated "they had to have known for months" (which is also impossible, given the pandemic was not even 2 months old at the time), would you like to explain how this does NOT mean you have claimed the CDC was intentionally trying to deceive people...? Did you misspeak? Post without thinking? Have you changed your mind? These statements, made by you, appear to be pretty clear.

WHO/CDC isn’t the same thing.

November/December/January, how many months is that?

Try again because either the WHO repeated the lie, without knowing or the WHO knew and lied anyway, what one is the answer?

China lied and people are dying, why are you trying to excuse it away Carp?

[Roy]

How can the WHO have known for months before Jan 14th that coronavirus was spreading from human to human when the first case was in late November?

My dear sweet Roy,

November, December, and January

How many month is that?

Since it's actually from late November to 14th January, less than two.

How long do you think it took China to figure out human to human transmission was taking place?

I don't know. Probably at least a couple of weeks, since it takes that long for any symptoms to manifest. But so what? You wrote about the WHO, not about China.

I’m sure they knew and were warned, by early December...

Even if they were (and this appears to be something you have invented), early December is not months before Jan 14th.

... that a deadly virus was spreading and likely spreading human to human, yet what actions were taken to warn other countries of this danger? Any at all?

You aren't going to avoid your slander against the WHO by diverting to what China did or didn't do.

Again, how can the WHO have known for months before Jan 14th that coronavirus was spreading from human to human when the first case was in late November and the first identified case in December?

[carpedm9587]

WHO/CDC isn’t the same thing. Try again.

Ahhh...you're right. My mistake.

Same question: are you accusing the WHO of intentionally deceiving the public?

[Roy]

Ahhh...you're right. My mistake.

Same question: are you accusing the WHO of intentionally deceiving the public?

No, she's demonstrating she's willing to pretend she can't count to two rather than admit error.

[carpedm9587]

Since it's actually from late November to 14th January, less than two.
I don't know. Probably at least a couple of weeks, since it takes that long for any symptoms to manifest. But so what? You wrote about the WHO, not about China.Even if they were (and this appears to be something you have invented), early December is not months before Jan 14th.

You aren't going to avoid your slander against the WHO by diverting to what China did or didn't do.

Again, how can the WHO have known for months before Jan 14th that coronavirus was spreading from human to human when the first case was in late November and the first identified case in December?

AFAICT - the first notification China gave the WHO dates to 12/30.

[Roy]

AFAICT - the first notification China gave the WHO dates to 12/30.

Yup. The WHO must have access to a TARDIS in order to squeeze "months" of knowing about coronavirus into 16 days.