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Thread: Trump vs. Biden General Election -- Who has the advantage?

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    tWebber
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    Trump vs. Biden General Election -- Who has the advantage?

    Posted this in another thread, but thought it was a more suited discussion elsewhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    As I noted, that was the only item on your list I disagreed with. Trump is, IMO, a travesty. He cannot be out of that office soon enough, though my preference would be for him to be voted out on 11/3. Right now, I'll feeling pretty good about that possibility. More and more of the people I know who voted for him in 2016 are disgusted with him and looking to turn elsewhere in 2016. Trump's base is doggedly devoted to him and shows every sign of defending anything he says or does. His strong opposition is just as solidly against him (and I count myself in that number). It is the moderates and the independents he has to swing, and I have high hopes that he has lost a tremendous amount of their support. When we remember that he only won by less than 100,000 votes in three states, and we see the outcome of the last several election cycles, I am very hopeful.
    I admit current events and how he handled it makes Trump's reelection more uncertain. The advantage he has is the current progressive vs. moderate fracturing going on in the Dem party. I'd also throw in Biden's questionable cognitive health and how that holds up during debates. But that could work against Trump as well if the things he's been saying lately spills into how he performs and handles the debates.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    Posted this in another thread, but thought it was a more suited discussion elsewhere.

    I admit current events and how he handled it makes Trump's reelection more uncertain. The advantage he has is the current progressive vs. moderate fracturing going on in the Dem party. I'd also throw in Biden's questionable cognitive health and how that holds up during debates. But that could work against Trump as well if the things he's been saying lately spills into how he performs and handles the debates.
    First, I'm honored to be quoted. Generally, I agree with your observation. Biden has a reputation for speaking loosely and crossing his wires. That is being spun into "cognitive health" and it is possible that will be successfully spun by many on the right. But there is enormous energy in the left right now. While there is indeed a moderate/progressive split, there is a significant amount of anti-Trump energy from both liberals and moderates. One of Trump's major claims (though I argue it was a dubious one) was the healthy economy. That has evaporated in weeks. The markets are now trading at levels below where they were when he took office. Another few hundred points and five years of gains will be wiped out. Economic forecasts for Q2 are becoming more than a little scary. Meanwhile, the trajectory of infections is still on the assent and the economy is basically at a standstill. With a deficit of close to $1T during a healthy economy, any stimulus will pile on top of that, potentially pushing the deficit to $2T or more.

    When Trump took office, he described what he inherited as a mess. He promised to "drain the swamp." What he did was substitute his own alligators for the ones that already existed, and turned the executive office into his own narcissistic retreat. The material he has left for a challenger to attack him on is legion, from the more trivial (his golfing and the cost of his excursions to his own properties to taxpayers) to the significant (his mismanagement of the current crisis, enriching himself through his office, stripping children from their parents at the border, turning his back on the current climate crisis, and so forth). All of these are issues of profound importance not only to the left, but to many (most?) moderates. And a marvelous montage could be created with Trump arguing against himself on any number of issues. Furthermore, the elections since 2016 have told a consistent story: the GOP has had to fight for seats that should have been a slam-dunk. The left is at least as angry as the Trump base was in 2016.

    I certainly don't think November is "in the bag," and I work consistently to encourage those who agree with me not to adopt that type of thinking. It was one of the many factors that put Trump in office in 2016. But I am encouraged by the trend lines. Less than six months to 11/3 - and I find my hopes continuing increasing. I think a lot will ride on who Biden selects for his running mate. If he's smart, it will be a young progressive from a battle-ground state that can be groomed to run in 2024. Someone who captures the imagination of the progressives. Such a move would do a great deal to cement the Democrats and attract independents. If they were from Georgia (Stacey Abrams comes to mind) or ideally from Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, it could be enough to turn the electoral college.

    My prediction for November: Dems will keep the House and take 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. They will gain seats in the Senate, but I am not feeling good about them flipping the Senate. I don't normally want one party to hold all three of those, but for 2020 I am making an exception. We need at least two years of undoing the damage Trump has done since taking office - both internationally and domestically.

    ETA: Has anyone else noticed a pattern? We had a recession during George H.W. Bush's presidency that put Clinton in office. It was turned significantly around (indeed, we had a surplus instead of a deficit at one point), and then we had another recession during George W. Bush's term which put Obama in office. By the end of his two terms, the recession was largely dealt with. Now we have Trump and within 3.5 years we are heading into a significant economic mess. If the pattern repeats, it will put Biden in office.
    Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-18-2020 at 06:30 PM.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  3. Amen JimL amen'd this post.
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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    we will be in real trouble with the economy if Sanders or Biden get elected in November after this. You can expect 4 years of depression.

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    we will be in real trouble with the economy if Sanders or Biden get elected in November after this. You can expect 4 years of depression.
    A prediction I think you would have a hard time substantiating, but if you have a factual basis for this assertion, I'd be happy to look at those facts.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber Darth Executor's Avatar
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    Trump easily has the advantage. Biden is on record calling the shutdown of travel from China as racist. Trump can just run that in ads non-stop and he'll cruise to victory.

    Campaigning on the DOW was always kinda sketchy. Trump cares about that but most of his supporters don't and nobody is gonna blame Trump for a worldwide economic recession caused by the Democratic party's Chinese owners anyway.

    He can now campaign on how progressive globalists moved essential industry on the other side of the world and left America at the mercy of an incompetent authoritarian regime, which is considerably more solid ground. This entire crisis validated Trump's worldview and did considerable damage to that of the perverse globalist alliance. The neocons were obliterated post Bush, it's time for the progressives to take their well deserved dirt nap too.
    "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

    There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Executor View Post
    Trump easily has the advantage. Biden is on record calling the shutdown of travel from China as racist. Trump can just run that in ads non-stop and he'll cruise to victory.

    Campaigning on the DOW was always kinda sketchy. Trump cares about that but most of his supporters don't and nobody is gonna blame Trump for a worldwide economic recession caused by the Democratic party's Chinese owners anyway.

    He can now campaign on how progressive globalists moved essential industry on the other side of the world and left America at the mercy of an incompetent authoritarian regime, which is considerably more solid ground. This entire crisis validated Trump's worldview and did considerable damage to that of the perverse globalist alliance. The neocons were obliterated post Bush, it's time for the progressives to take their well deserved dirt nap too.
    I suspect most/all of that will have little impact on the actual election. This November, people will be choosing on what they have always chosen: the state of the economy. It will be augmented by their perception of how this virus has played out. The economy is moving towards being a shambles. The markets are trading below when he took office, and if the erosion continues are within 1,000 points of erasing 5 years of gains. Unemployment is likely to skyrocket in the coming months. GDP is likely to tank. His average was already no more than Obama's for the first 13 quarters of his last term, and will likely slip well below that mark. That leaves this pandemic. If he starts providing leadership that is effective, he might survive this. Odds are he will not be able to get past himself and that will be evident to all except the members of his base. And even if his stimulus has an effect, he started with a $1T deficit and is likely to have to take it to $2T or even $3T before this is over, with horrific consequences for the economy writ large.

    All-in-all, I am finding myself very hopeful for November.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    A prediction I think you would have a hard time substantiating, but if you have a factual basis for this assertion, I'd be happy to look at those facts.
    What? I can't have a personal opinion?

    If Biden wins, he is too demented to fix the economy. He also has no business sense. If Sanders won, he would start spending MORE money we don't have to give away more freebees to people, and want to overtax the very people who supply us with jobs and products. Which could not grow the economy but would just increase the deficit even more.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    What? I can't have a personal opinion?

    If Biden wins, he is too demented to fix the economy. He also has no business sense.
    If Biden wins, he wouldn't be the one running the country, it would be his "handlers".
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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    tWebber
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    Since Hillary and other neoliberals in the MSM accused Gabbard of being a Russian asset, I wonder if this means Biden is a Russian asset? I bet the Russian asset narrative will now disappear into the political either.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    What? I can't have a personal opinion?
    Not sure where you got that impression from anything I said.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    If Biden wins, he is too demented to fix the economy. He also has no business sense. If Sanders won, he would start spending MORE money we don't have to give away more freebees to people, and want to overtax the very people who supply us with jobs and products. Which could not grow the economy but would just increase the deficit even more.
    Again, opinions I think you would have a hard time backing up with evidence. If you have it, however, I would love to look at it. To be clear (this time) you are entitled to those opinions. But uninformed (or baseless) opinions are not all that compelling.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  14. Amen JimL amen'd this post.

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