Trump vs. Biden General Election -- Who has the advantage?

[Starlight]

we will be in real trouble with the economy if Sanders or Biden get elected in November after this. You can expect 4 years of depression.

You seem to be ignoring the basic fact that all democratic presidents in recent decades have done better than all republican presidents in recent decades as far as the economy is concerned.

Isn't thinking something different will happen if you try the same thing again one of the definitions of insanity?


I also seem to recall you posting that you liked Reagan's dictum of voting based on whether you were better off economically now compared to 4 years ago. You posted that when the stockmarket was peaking as a reason for re-voting for Trump. I guess now that the stockmarket is gurgling down the toilet that you actually lack the courage of your convictions to now vote against Trump because of that?

Is that why you are busy moving the goalposts to voting based on your insane above claims about gut-based evidence-rejecting non-testable predictions of the future?

[Starlight]

Most on the right screamed bloody murder at bailouts and a $1.2T deficit; but they have been largely mum at the current $1T deficit in a supposedly healthy economy. Now it is likely to swell to $2T or even $3T. It will be interesting to see if they have any objections at all. My prediction: it will all be perfectly justifiable and understandable and Trump will be the hero for taking action.

It's pretty simple... the US right doesn't actually have any principles.

They just pretend to for the purposes of criticizing democrats as much as possible. But they don't actually care about the things they claim to care about. They're just a bunch of unprincipled liars.

[seanD]

Even if the stimulus injects a little positive spin into the economy (and that is by no means certain), it will be at the cost of a tremendous deficit. Most on the right screamed bloody murder at bailouts and a $1.2T deficit; but they have been largely mum at the current $1T deficit in a supposedly healthy economy. Now it is likely to swell to $2T or even $3T. It will be interesting to see if they have any objections at all. My prediction: it will all be perfectly justifiable and understandable and Trump will be the hero for taking action.

The hypocrisy will be palpable...

ETA: There is always the chance, however, that Trump's support for giving people cash will buy some percentage of the electorate. Everyone loves to get a check. I cannot imagine that thought has not crossed Mr. Trump's mind. His base, of course, is already bought and paid for. Those like me who are adamantly opposed to him won't be bought by it. But there is that center swing vote. Some number of them will inevitably vote for the source of the $, forgetting that they or their children will eventually have to pay that tab...with interest.

As far as debt and deficit, this just doesn't matter anymore to neither the political left or right. That ship sailed decades ago. There are some voices on the right, but their voices are in a wilderness. In fact, I don't hear many Reps even bothering to pretend like they care about federal spending anymore. This will be even LESS of a factor to the common voter, who will only be concerned about how they're doing currently, and that remains to be seen.

Another factor against the left could be Biden's VP pick. If it's who suspect it might be, that will be even more of a detriment to his standing with progressives.

[Terraceth]

Which might be countered by the Bernie bros that refuse to vote for Biden. The only thing against Trump is the economy -- though it remains to be seen if all those billions of stimulus programs can reflate everything back to even semi normal, how bad Biden's cognitive health is, and how obnoxious and juvenile Trump has the potential to get during the debate that might turn folks off. It worked the first time, but might not work the second.

The problem is that "the Bernie bros that refuse to vote for Biden" is that in the previous election, you also had "the Bernie bros that refuse to vote for Hillary." Is there any particular reason to believe that there would be more "Bernie bros. that refuse to vote for <insert non-Sanders candidate here>" in 2020 than in 2016?

Another factor against the left could be Biden's VP pick. If it's who suspect it might be, that will be even more of a detriment to his standing with progressives.

Who do you suspect it might be?

[seanD]

The problem is that "the Bernie bros that refuse to vote for Biden" is that in the previous election, you also had "the Bernie bros that refuse to vote for Hillary." Is there any particular reason to believe that there would be more "Bernie bros. that refuse to vote for <insert non-Sanders candidate here>" in 2020 than in 2016?


Who do you suspect it might be?

You'd assume a second time they believe their candidate got the shaft by the establishment (and I've heard a whole lot of noise from their side about "election fixes," "election fraud," etc.) that their exasperated reaction to this would be even worse.

[demi-conservative]

The problem is that "the Bernie bros that refuse to vote for Biden" is that in the previous election, you also had "the Bernie bros that refuse to vote for Hillary." Is there any particular reason to believe that there would be more "Bernie bros. that refuse to vote for <insert non-Sanders candidate here>" in 2020 than in 2016?

Yes. Many hated establishment Hillary but voted against Trump because of all the fear propaganda. Four years later, life still goes on so there's no urgency for them to remove Trump.

[demi-conservative]

Trump and his influential supporters are setting up 'blame the Chinese' for the recession. The left cries, but this will probably work meaning that Trump does not get blamed for the recession or market crashing.

Some were expecting a recession to hit in 2020, but now he has a good scapegoat.

[demi-conservative]

carped, also Starlight: "Republicans are hypocrites "

Who cares? For once you have what you have been crying for ages, a Republican leader who is willing to implement progressive economic policies with a heart.

Enjoy the moment, until you realise that this gets rid of one of the Republicans' big weaknesses and makes Trump much more electable.

[seanD]

Trump and his influential supporters are setting up 'blame the Chinese' for the recession. The left cries, but this will probably work meaning that Trump does not get blamed for the recession or market crashing.

Some were expecting a recession to hit in 2020, but now he has a good scapegoat.

And it's huge that Omar is commending Trump for endorsing these MMT programs. Imagine how that looks to the Bernie bros. You have Yang, the poster boy for UBI, stabbing his base in the back and promoting the establishment pick, and Sanders who will eventually be forced to do the same, going up against the guy that was actually able to implement the program into fruition. They talked the talked, he walked the walked. If that doesn't give the progressives incentive to vote for Trump in protest of Biden, nothing will. And if that was an intentional election strategy on the part of the Trump admin, that was pretty freaking masterful.

[rogue06]

And it's huge that Omar is commending Trump for endorsing these MMT programs. Imagine how that looks to the Bernie bros. You have Yang, the poster boy for UBI, stabbing his base in the back and promoting the establishment pick, and Sanders who will eventually be forced to do the same, going up against the guy that was actually able to implement the program into fruition. They talked the talked, he walked the walked. If that doesn't give the progressives incentive to vote for Trump in protest of Biden, nothing will. And if that was an intentional election strategy on the part of the Trump admin, that was pretty freaking masterful.

For many of them Trump could personally discover the cure to cancer and distribute it for free and they'd only scream that he's destroying the planet with over population.

[Zara]

For many of them Trump could personally discover the cure to cancer and distribute it for free and they'd only scream that he's destroying the planet with over population.

The guy, and your party, systematically undermined the government's ability to act, you know, those government cuts you love so much. An event happens which requires government action on a global scale, it's been hamstrung because of your ideology, so it should be game over - companies collapse, people starve on the streets, hospitals pile up with the dead, and corporate America burns itself to the ground, because they didn't save for a rainy day, etc. Turns out you're hypocrites. Go figure.

Personally, I think you're terrible extremists, like, really terrible evil people. But I guess that's understood.

[Starlight]

For many of them Trump could personally discover the cure to cancer and distribute it for free and they'd only scream that he's destroying the planet with over population.

If he actually did something good, I would praise him.

Not going to hold my breath though. He seems to be one of the most incompetent and self-centered people in history.

[seanD]

For many of them Trump could personally discover the cure to cancer and distribute it for free and they'd only scream that he's destroying the planet with over population.

That seems to be primarily driven by the establishment faction -- i.e. Pelosi/Schiff/Hillary/Biden/msnbc/cnn, etc. -- which is in contention with the progressives. I'm not saying progressives are fans of Trump (folks at TYT absolutely loathe Trump), but that contention with the establishment could have a huge impact on election swings. Coupled with the fact that folks like Omar are giving Trump props for basically being a disaster relief socialist, is pretty significant.

[carpedm9587]

It's pretty simple... the US right doesn't actually have any principles.

They just pretend to for the purposes of criticizing democrats as much as possible. But they don't actually care about the things they claim to care about. They're just a bunch of unprincipled liars.

As CP would say - you are painting with far too broad a brush. I would accept that as a characterization of many on the right - and they are easily spotted as they defend words and actions they would never accept from a person of the opposing party. But there are many on the right who have retained their soul and are fighting to restore the soul to the Republican party. I know many of them. Unfortunately, they are in the minority right now. Far too many have been caught up in "Trump fever" and are (intentionally?) closing their eyes and ears to what they should be denouncing loudly. And even more have gone further, and are actively defending and supporting what they should be denouncing loudly.

[carpedm9587]

As far as debt and deficit, this just doesn't matter anymore to neither the political left or right. That ship sailed decades ago. There are some voices on the right, but their voices are in a wilderness. In fact, I don't hear many Reps even bothering to pretend like they care about federal spending anymore. This will be even LESS of a factor to the common voter, who will only be concerned about how they're doing currently, and that remains to be seen.

Unfortunately, I fear you are right on this one. And I fear it may be yet another piece that leads to the end of this political experiment. I'm sure the citizens of Rome did not accept that their empire was dying. I wonder if the citizens of America will fair any better?

Another factor against the left could be Biden's VP pick. If it's who suspect it might be, that will be even more of a detriment to his standing with progressives.

Agreed - that pick will be critical. It needs to be someone fairly young and fairly popular, and I think it should be someone who adds the progressive view to the ticket. Hopefully, the right gremlins are speaking in Biden's ear.