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Korea Death Rate Decreases

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  • Korea Death Rate Decreases

    Korea's death rate for the coronavirus decreases after 140,000 tested and 6000 found to have the virus.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...te-2020-3?op=1

    The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

    The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

    This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%.

    Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.

  • #2
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Korea's death rate for the coronavirus decreases after 140,000 tested and 6000 found to have the virus.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...te-2020-3?op=1




    Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.
    South Korean mortality has nearly doubled since that article, recent as it is. They have had 8413 confirmed cases as of today. And 84 deaths. That is 1%. S. Korea's population of sick is younger than in most countries. This disease is more deadly the older the victim. 1% is plenty to worry about, but is low compared to many other countries. South Korea has controlled the disease well, with the majority of cases just beginning to enter their 2nd or 3rd week, which is critical. The rate of spread has been significantly curtailed.

    There have been several articles looking at why S. Korea is doing so 'well' relative to so many other environments. Some of it is age, some if it is large scale testing so that those who have it can be quarantined and not spread it. But S. Korea is - so far - and unfortunately - not the norm. Keeping in mind that 1% is still 10x influenza, and in this country with an infection as wide as the typical flu season would produce over 500,000 deaths, assuming there where enough beds to treat all those needing critical care, which it appears there would not be.

    At the other end of the spectrum consider Italy - for example - which today posted some 4207 new cases and 475 new deaths. Italy's naive (#deaths/#cases) mortality now stands @ 8.3%. In large part due to the medical system being overrun by the disease. Italy is still experiencing exponential growth, though there has been a slight downturn in the slope over the last week or so.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-18-2020, 07:47 PM.
    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

    Comment


    • #3
      There is nothing surprising in the incomplete statistics that your provided. We are still talking about percentages of those who had signs of Wuhan virus (or sometimes just similar symptoms) rather than the percentage of people who would show positive for the virus in large scale testing.

      It has been a rise of death rates in Italy of maybe 30% over the 1470 deaths per day occurring on average last year. Yes it is worse than normal in Italy but it is not like seeing 1% of the population dying there. The levels are horrible but not apocalyptic. Nor do these increases seem common. (Also, I'm not sure that the death rate has increased by 30% since there are deaths that may have happened apart from Coronavirus but have been counted under the totals for Coronavirus.)

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
        Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.
        Yep... that's what happens with every new communicable disease. Early case mortality rates are always much higher than what is actual simply because of the lack of data and the fact that we're only aware of the most serious cases. I've read some estimates that over 80% of the people who contract the Chinese virus exhibit no symptoms.
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          There is nothing surprising in the incomplete statistics that your provided. We are still talking about percentages of those who had signs of Wuhan virus (or sometimes just similar symptoms) rather than the percentage of people who would show positive for the virus in large scale testing.

          It has been a rise of death rates in Italy of maybe 30% over the 1470 deaths per day occurring on average last year. Yes it is worse than normal in Italy but it is not like seeing 1% of the population dying there. The levels are horrible but not apocalyptic. Nor do these increases seem common. (Also, I'm not sure that the death rate has increased by 30% since there are deaths that may have happened apart from Coronavirus but have been counted under the totals for Coronavirus.)
          You are wrong there as regards the 1% rate in S. Korea. That is probably a very real number for a younger population.

          The number for Italy might be high, but then again, it may not. Italy is an older population, and mortality rises significantly in the elderly. Given the carnage and extreme circumstances seen in Italy, whatever the 'real' number is, the consequences of this disease if it is allowed to spread unchecked are devastating.

          To try to play that down, or pretend the reactions to it we are seeing in the us and the world are unjustified is to be a fool.

          Dont be a fool mike.
          My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

          If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

          This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
            Yep... that's what happens with every new communicable disease. Early case mortality rates are always much higher than what is actual simply because of the lack of data and the fact that we're only aware of the most serious cases. I've read some estimates that over 80% of the people who contract the Chinese virus exhibit no symptoms.
            This is true, but anything north of .5% can overwhelm our medical system if it is as highly infectious as this disease is. Further, the mortality goes up significantly when that same medical care is unavailable, again as we are seeing in Italy and Iran.
            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
              Korea's death rate for the coronavirus decreases after 140,000 tested and 6000 found to have the virus.

              https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...te-2020-3?op=1




              Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.
              And Korea's Mortality rate continues to rise as the surge of cases from 2 weeks ago moves through the course of the disease. Today it is 8585 cases, 91 deaths, or 1.06%, up from .98% yesterday. They have 59 in serious condition, and added 152 new cases today.

              When Italy's numbers come in, I'll report on them as well. Why Italy and S.Korea? They represent the two ends of the spectrum. Any balanced look at what is going on with this disease must look at the entirety of the spectrum, not one anomalous low value.

              Sadly, the US is tracking more closely to Italy than S. Korea at the present time.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                Yep... that's what happens with every new communicable disease. Early case mortality rates are always much higher than what is actual simply because of the lack of data and the fact that we're only aware of the most serious cases. I've read some estimates that over 80% of the people who contract the Chinese virus exhibit no symptoms.
                Where did you read that? On the toilet door, where you appear to get most of your information? But keep digging, by all means. Maybe go buy some extra toilet paper so you can wipe your mouth.

                Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                It has been a rise of death rates in Italy of maybe 30% over the 1470 deaths per day occurring on average last year. Yes it is worse than normal in Italy but it is not like seeing 1% of the population dying there. The levels are horrible but not apocalyptic. Nor do these increases seem common. (Also, I'm not sure that the death rate has increased by 30% since there are deaths that may have happened apart from Coronavirus but have been counted under the totals for Coronavirus.)
                Unless much of the 80% are also not transmitting the virus post infection, then this is unlikely - S. Korea, again, has stymied the spread to a manageable number, suggesting there isn't a missing majority spreading the virus. The most recent figure puts the CFR at 1%, within a heath system that wasn't overrun. Still reason to be very concerned and to prepare for a bad case scenario. Additionally, we don't know the long-term effects of the virus, some viruses, can result in long-term chronic health problems. Again, reason to take care.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Zero View Post
                  Where did you read that?
                  I get my news from a wide variety of publications and don't always remember exactly where I might have seen a particular piece of information.
                  Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                  But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                  Than a fool in the eyes of God


                  From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                    You are wrong there as regards the 1% rate in S. Korea. That is probably a very real number for a younger population.

                    The number for Italy might be high, but then again, it may not. Italy is an older population, and mortality rises significantly in the elderly. Given the carnage and extreme circumstances seen in Italy, whatever the 'real' number is, the consequences of this disease if it is allowed to spread unchecked are devastating.

                    To try to play that down, or pretend the reactions to it we are seeing in the us and the world are unjustified is to be a fool.

                    Dont be a fool mike.
                    so you are saying that finally your view has become sensible? I'm trying not to follow fools.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                      And Korea's Mortality rate continues to rise as the surge of cases from 2 weeks ago moves through the course of the disease. Today it is 8585 cases, 91 deaths, or 1.06%, up from .98% yesterday. They have 59 in serious condition, and added 152 new cases today.

                      When Italy's numbers come in, I'll report on them as well. Why Italy and S.Korea? They represent the two ends of the spectrum. Any balanced look at what is going on with this disease must look at the entirety of the spectrum, not one anomalous low value.

                      Sadly, the US is tracking more closely to Italy than S. Korea at the present time.
                      Italy's numbers for the day are in. They are at 41,035 cases, they have 3405 deaths with a naive mortality of 8.3%. They have 2498 people in serious to critical condition out of 33,190 cases, meaning that for their population, 7.5% of the cases require hospital care. Interesting that is less than the current mortality rate. Not sure what that means or how to put that oddity into context.

                      It needs to be noted amidst all the insanely ignorant conversation flying around here that the only places that have made any noticeable progress in taking this thing out of an exponential growth scenario are places that have 'overreacted' according to many of you.

                      Those that have dragged their feet in a similar fashion to our own are seeing serious consequences at the current time. But your attitudes and modes of thought (unfortunately) reflect a sizable percentage of our population and our government. So I'm hoping and praying I'll see a change soon in the side of the conversation here that leans towards denial of what this thing is.
                      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                        South Korean mortality has nearly doubled since that article, recent as it is. They have had 8413 confirmed cases as of today. And 84 deaths. That is 1%. S. Korea's population of sick is younger than in most countries. This disease is more deadly the older the victim. 1% is plenty to worry about, but is low compared to many other countries. South Korea has controlled the disease well, with the majority of cases just beginning to enter their 2nd or 3rd week, which is critical. The rate of spread has been significantly curtailed.

                        There have been several articles looking at why S. Korea is doing so 'well' relative to so many other environments. Some of it is age, some if it is large scale testing so that those who have it can be quarantined and not spread it. But S. Korea is - so far - and unfortunately - not the norm. Keeping in mind that 1% is still 10x influenza, and in this country with an infection as wide as the typical flu season would produce over 500,000 deaths, assuming there where enough beds to treat all those needing critical care, which it appears there would not be.

                        At the other end of the spectrum consider Italy - for example - which today posted some 4207 new cases and 475 new deaths. Italy's naive (#deaths/#cases) mortality now stands @ 8.3%. In large part due to the medical system being overrun by the disease. Italy is still experiencing exponential growth, though there has been a slight downturn in the slope over the last week or so.
                        I realized you are using the scarier number of deaths per confirmed cases. But we saw that the deaths per number of people tested were at 0.1% of the number tested, and would decrease as more are tested. And now with the recognition of the chloroquine medicines, the rate of deaths among the confirmed cases would decrease too.

                        We have to stop looking at the mass media as the indicator whether we should be scared. They want us to be scared, if even of just being scared of our own shadows.

                        Comment

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