Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 12

Thread: Korea Death Rate Decreases

  1. #1
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,173
    Amen (Given)
    329
    Amen (Received)
    819

    Korea Death Rate Decreases

    Korea's death rate for the coronavirus decreases after 140,000 tested and 6000 found to have the virus.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...te-2020-3?op=1

    The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

    The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

    This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%.

    Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.

  2. #2
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    7,460
    Amen (Given)
    557
    Amen (Received)
    1855
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Korea's death rate for the coronavirus decreases after 140,000 tested and 6000 found to have the virus.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...te-2020-3?op=1




    Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.
    South Korean mortality has nearly doubled since that article, recent as it is. They have had 8413 confirmed cases as of today. And 84 deaths. That is 1%. S. Korea's population of sick is younger than in most countries. This disease is more deadly the older the victim. 1% is plenty to worry about, but is low compared to many other countries. South Korea has controlled the disease well, with the majority of cases just beginning to enter their 2nd or 3rd week, which is critical. The rate of spread has been significantly curtailed.

    There have been several articles looking at why S. Korea is doing so 'well' relative to so many other environments. Some of it is age, some if it is large scale testing so that those who have it can be quarantined and not spread it. But S. Korea is - so far - and unfortunately - not the norm. Keeping in mind that 1% is still 10x influenza, and in this country with an infection as wide as the typical flu season would produce over 500,000 deaths, assuming there where enough beds to treat all those needing critical care, which it appears there would not be.

    At the other end of the spectrum consider Italy - for example - which today posted some 4207 new cases and 475 new deaths. Italy's naive (#deaths/#cases) mortality now stands @ 8.3%. In large part due to the medical system being overrun by the disease. Italy is still experiencing exponential growth, though there has been a slight downturn in the slope over the last week or so.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-18-2020 at 05:47 PM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  3. Amen Darth Executor amen'd this post.
  4. #3
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,173
    Amen (Given)
    329
    Amen (Received)
    819
    There is nothing surprising in the incomplete statistics that your provided. We are still talking about percentages of those who had signs of Wuhan virus (or sometimes just similar symptoms) rather than the percentage of people who would show positive for the virus in large scale testing.

    It has been a rise of death rates in Italy of maybe 30% over the 1470 deaths per day occurring on average last year. Yes it is worse than normal in Italy but it is not like seeing 1% of the population dying there. The levels are horrible but not apocalyptic. Nor do these increases seem common. (Also, I'm not sure that the death rate has increased by 30% since there are deaths that may have happened apart from Coronavirus but have been counted under the totals for Coronavirus.)

  5. Amen Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  6. #4
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    United States
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    20,564
    Amen (Given)
    6195
    Amen (Received)
    7661
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.
    Yep... that's what happens with every new communicable disease. Early case mortality rates are always much higher than what is actual simply because of the lack of data and the fact that we're only aware of the most serious cases. I've read some estimates that over 80% of the people who contract the Chinese virus exhibit no symptoms.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  7. #5
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    7,460
    Amen (Given)
    557
    Amen (Received)
    1855
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    There is nothing surprising in the incomplete statistics that your provided. We are still talking about percentages of those who had signs of Wuhan virus (or sometimes just similar symptoms) rather than the percentage of people who would show positive for the virus in large scale testing.

    It has been a rise of death rates in Italy of maybe 30% over the 1470 deaths per day occurring on average last year. Yes it is worse than normal in Italy but it is not like seeing 1% of the population dying there. The levels are horrible but not apocalyptic. Nor do these increases seem common. (Also, I'm not sure that the death rate has increased by 30% since there are deaths that may have happened apart from Coronavirus but have been counted under the totals for Coronavirus.)
    You are wrong there as regards the 1% rate in S. Korea. That is probably a very real number for a younger population.

    The number for Italy might be high, but then again, it may not. Italy is an older population, and mortality rises significantly in the elderly. Given the carnage and extreme circumstances seen in Italy, whatever the 'real' number is, the consequences of this disease if it is allowed to spread unchecked are devastating.

    To try to play that down, or pretend the reactions to it we are seeing in the us and the world are unjustified is to be a fool.

    Dont be a fool mike.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  8. Amen Darth Executor amen'd this post.
  9. #6
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    7,460
    Amen (Given)
    557
    Amen (Received)
    1855
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Yep... that's what happens with every new communicable disease. Early case mortality rates are always much higher than what is actual simply because of the lack of data and the fact that we're only aware of the most serious cases. I've read some estimates that over 80% of the people who contract the Chinese virus exhibit no symptoms.
    This is true, but anything north of .5% can overwhelm our medical system if it is as highly infectious as this disease is. Further, the mortality goes up significantly when that same medical care is unavailable, again as we are seeing in Italy and Iran.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  10. #7
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    7,460
    Amen (Given)
    557
    Amen (Received)
    1855
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Korea's death rate for the coronavirus decreases after 140,000 tested and 6000 found to have the virus.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...te-2020-3?op=1




    Thus, even if the Coronavirus is the primary factor in the death of these people, the initial percentages appear super high but decrease after finding how many people test positive. Until then peoples' fears will remain exaggerrated.
    And Korea's Mortality rate continues to rise as the surge of cases from 2 weeks ago moves through the course of the disease. Today it is 8585 cases, 91 deaths, or 1.06%, up from .98% yesterday. They have 59 in serious condition, and added 152 new cases today.

    When Italy's numbers come in, I'll report on them as well. Why Italy and S.Korea? They represent the two ends of the spectrum. Any balanced look at what is going on with this disease must look at the entirety of the spectrum, not one anomalous low value.

    Sadly, the US is tracking more closely to Italy than S. Korea at the present time.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  11. #8
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jun 2019
    Faith
    Unspecified
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    259
    Amen (Given)
    0
    Amen (Received)
    44
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Yep... that's what happens with every new communicable disease. Early case mortality rates are always much higher than what is actual simply because of the lack of data and the fact that we're only aware of the most serious cases. I've read some estimates that over 80% of the people who contract the Chinese virus exhibit no symptoms.
    Where did you read that? On the toilet door, where you appear to get most of your information? But keep digging, by all means. Maybe go buy some extra toilet paper so you can wipe your mouth.

    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    It has been a rise of death rates in Italy of maybe 30% over the 1470 deaths per day occurring on average last year. Yes it is worse than normal in Italy but it is not like seeing 1% of the population dying there. The levels are horrible but not apocalyptic. Nor do these increases seem common. (Also, I'm not sure that the death rate has increased by 30% since there are deaths that may have happened apart from Coronavirus but have been counted under the totals for Coronavirus.)
    Unless much of the 80% are also not transmitting the virus post infection, then this is unlikely - S. Korea, again, has stymied the spread to a manageable number, suggesting there isn't a missing majority spreading the virus. The most recent figure puts the CFR at 1%, within a heath system that wasn't overrun. Still reason to be very concerned and to prepare for a bad case scenario. Additionally, we don't know the long-term effects of the virus, some viruses, can result in long-term chronic health problems. Again, reason to take care.

  12. #9
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    United States
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    20,564
    Amen (Given)
    6195
    Amen (Received)
    7661
    Quote Originally Posted by Zero View Post
    Where did you read that?
    I get my news from a wide variety of publications and don't always remember exactly where I might have seen a particular piece of information.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  13. #10
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,173
    Amen (Given)
    329
    Amen (Received)
    819
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    You are wrong there as regards the 1% rate in S. Korea. That is probably a very real number for a younger population.

    The number for Italy might be high, but then again, it may not. Italy is an older population, and mortality rises significantly in the elderly. Given the carnage and extreme circumstances seen in Italy, whatever the 'real' number is, the consequences of this disease if it is allowed to spread unchecked are devastating.

    To try to play that down, or pretend the reactions to it we are seeing in the us and the world are unjustified is to be a fool.

    Dont be a fool mike.
    so you are saying that finally your view has become sensible? I'm trying not to follow fools.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •