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Thread: Everyone should stay home

  1. #111
    Professor KingsGambit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Executor View Post
    I read a while back that if they close all the alcoholics eventually show up at the ER and take up time/risk spreading infection even more.
    That and they probably want to avoid them buying out all the hand sanitizer.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

  2. #112
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    I haven't even got my mail since Wednesday. I'll walk down to the mailbox tomorrow since by blood pressure medicine should have arrived today.
    This morning I got all call from Kaiser. They asked if I had ordered my blood pressure medicine which I affirmed pointing out that was a week ago and they said it would be delivered in three to five days. They said that it would be seven to ten days and I owed $11 for my co-pay. I pointed out that I never have paid a co-pay for it before and when I placed an order was told there was no co-pay.

    So now if I want it before my blood pressure medicine runs out (got 1 pill left) I'll have to go to their health center to pick it up and pay $11.

    Guess I'll be going out of the house tomorrow.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization thatís not the argument." --Tassman

  3. #113
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    This morning I got all call from Kaiser. They asked if I had ordered my blood pressure medicine which I affirmed pointing out that was a week ago and they said it would be delivered in three to five days. They said that it would be seven to ten days and I owed $11 for my co-pay. I pointed out that I never have paid a co-pay for it before and when I placed an order was told there was no co-pay.

    So now if I want it before my blood pressure medicine runs out (got 1 pill left) I'll have to go to their health center to pick it up and pay $11.

    Guess I'll be going out of the house tomorrow.
    Somebody didn't get the memo that they're supposed to be trying to make things EASIER, not more convoluted!
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since youíve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?Ē

  4. Amen DesertBerean amen'd this post.
  5. #114
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Somebody didn't get the memo that they're supposed to be trying to make things EASIER, not more convoluted!
    I still can't get anywhere with filing for LOA. I've been trying to get hold of the personnel person (my boss had told me to try her if I continued to have problems when I talked to her Saturday morning). Trouble is that she doesn't apparently do phone calls because she never picks up when they transfer my call. I've been trying since Sunday.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization thatís not the argument." --Tassman

  6. #115
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    This morning I got all call from Kaiser. They asked if I had ordered my blood pressure medicine which I affirmed pointing out that was a week ago and they said it would be delivered in three to five days. They said that it would be seven to ten days and I owed $11 for my co-pay. I pointed out that I never have paid a co-pay for it before and when I placed an order was told there was no co-pay.

    So now if I want it before my blood pressure medicine runs out (got 1 pill left) I'll have to go to their health center to pick it up and pay $11.

    Guess I'll be going out of the house tomorrow.
    Went down to their health center when they opened at 7AM so as to avoid crowds of mostly sick folks.

    The woman at the desk said that only if I had it shipped it was $11 -- and then proceeded to charge me $11

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization thatís not the argument." --Tassman

  7. #116
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    Went down to their health center when they opened at 7AM so as to avoid crowds of mostly sick folks.

    The woman at the desk said ...
    She applying for a position on the committee.

  8. #117
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    80 percent of us will be infected. "Flattening the curve" is an attempt to spread that 80 percent out over time.
    So looking over my earlier posts for errors there were some minor things, and then I ran across this one.

    It's a doozy.

    With best practices, we can easily reduce that attack rate of 80 percent to under 5 percent, around 135,000 deaths. We're currently on track to keep it under 3 percent, or 80,000 deaths. Any road, by fighting this infection, we're dodging that 80 percent and saving two million lives here in the U.S.

    The 81 percent was an estimate of how high the attack rate would climb if no mitigation was undertaken. With any mitigation at all, we could bend that number back toward herd immunity. At the time I posted this, I was just beginning my close reading of IC-L 9, posted elsewhere, and hadn't even derived the formula for herd immunity.

    R(HI) = 1 - 1/R(0), or 58 percent if R(0) was 2.4.

    Of course, herd immunity only brings R down to 1, meaning the number of new infections levels off at some constant figure, so that 58 percent attack rate would still grow over time. But once it's exceeded, even by the tiniest fraction, the back of the curve is broken, and the number of new infections would decline.

    By skewing that 58 percent toward younger people, it was estimated we could cut the number of deaths in half, to just over a million. Currently, assuming we maintain all NPIs currently in effect, it's projected we can cut that figure to 60,000.

    But until there's a vaccine, those million lives still hang in the balance.

    Everyone should stay home.

    Everyone who can.

  9. #118
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    So looking over my earlier posts for errors there were some minor things, and then I ran across this one.

    It's a doozy.

    With best practices, we can easily reduce that attack rate of 80 percent to under 5 percent, around 135,000 deaths. We're currently on track to keep it under 3 percent, or 80,000 deaths. Any road, by fighting this infection, we're dodging that 80 percent and saving two million lives here in the U.S.

    The 81 percent was an estimate of how high the attack rate would climb if no mitigation was undertaken. With any mitigation at all, we could bend that number back toward herd immunity. At the time I posted this, I was just beginning my close reading of IC-L 9, posted elsewhere, and hadn't even derived the formula for herd immunity.

    R(HI) = 1 - 1/R(0), or 58 percent if R(0) was 2.4.

    Of course, herd immunity only brings R down to 1, meaning the number of new infections levels off at some constant figure, so that 58 percent attack rate would still grow over time. But once it's exceeded, even by the tiniest fraction, the back of the curve is broken, and the number of new infections would decline.

    By skewing that 58 percent toward younger people, it was estimated we could cut the number of deaths in half, to just over a million. Currently, assuming we maintain all NPIs currently in effect, it's projected we can cut that figure to 60,000.

    But until there's a vaccine, those million lives still hang in the balance.

    Everyone should stay home.

    Everyone who can.
    Ah. You fall into the fallacy that a vaccine that is not yet created and tested will be needed to save the world. Why do you think this disease will be so persistent? Or what studies have been done to show this coronavirus has features to make it extra persistent? The numbers just aren't showing such widespread death. Thousands would have been dead in California while sitting in their homes with this disease. The epidemic-level deaths have been localized to a few location -- which may have extenuating circumstances.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-19-2020 at 11:06 AM.

  10. #119
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Ah. You fall into the fallacy that a vaccine that is not yet created and tested will be needed to save the world. Why do you think this disease will be so persistent? Or what studies have been done to show this coronavirus has features to make it extra persistent? The numbers just aren't showing such widespread death. Thousands would have been dead in California while sitting in their homes with this disease. The epidemic-level deaths have been localized to a few location -- which may have extenuating circumstances.
    Last week, I spoke to my friend Afia in Dakar.

    We're not saving the world.

  11. #120
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    Last week, I spoke to my friend Afia in Dakar.

    We're not saving the world.
    What did Afia say? You kind of cut your post short.

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