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Thread: Everyone should stay home

  1. #1
    radical strawberry
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    Everyone should stay home

    Theists are welcome to post in this thread, to offer prayers in this thread, and to speak from their religious beliefs in this thread. It's time to reach out beyond our religious and political differences in the face of the covid 19 pandemic.

    Everyone should stay home

    We're looking at a minimum of hundreds of thousands dying just in the US.

    That's an order of magnitude away from the most likely scenarios. Americans should prepare for over a million deaths. I know how horrific that sounds. It was the number that came from my first back-of-the-envelope calculation and it still shocks me. And it's the number that others have arrived at as well, now in a formal report that is changing national policies.

    Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

    The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

    They predict an 81 percent infection rate in the US and GB over the course of the pandemic.

    Hundreds of thousands at minimum

    ... However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.


    There are 46 million Americans over 60.

    2.2 percent — that's from the best row — of 81 percent of 46 million is 800 thousand.
    9.3 percent — that's from the worst row — of 81 percent of 46 million is 3.5 million.

    The actual figure should be between those.

    ... health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over.

    Until there's a vaccine, everyone should stay home.

  2. #2
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Our local mayor has made a declaration for no more meetings of no more than 10 persons - our church will go to online-only.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  3. Amen Juvenal amen'd this post.
  4. #3
    tWebber Darth Executor's Avatar
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    I think summer will slow down transmissions and buy us some time... which makes it all the more important to follow the prescriptions NOW. Especially for places that haven't been hit hard (or at all).

    2^10 is 1024
    1.9^10 is about 600

    Even small reductions in transmission now will have a big effect on the final body count.
    "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

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  5. Amen JimboJSR, Chaotic Void amen'd this post.
  6. #4
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Moderated By: rogue06


    Please notice which section this was posted in. IOW, this is not a forum for theists

    ***If you wish to take issue with this notice DO NOT do so in this thread.***
    Contact the forum moderator or an administrator in Private Message or email instead. If you feel you must publicly complain or whine, please take it to the Padded Room unless told otherwise.


    I'm always still in trouble again

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    Moderated By: rogue06


    Please notice which section this was posted in. IOW, this is not a forum for theists

    ***If you wish to take issue with this notice DO NOT do so in this thread.***
    Contact the forum moderator or an administrator in Private Message or email instead. If you feel you must publicly complain or whine, please take it to the Padded Room unless told otherwise.

    Even when given explicit permission?

    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    Theists are welcome to post in this thread, to offer prayers in this thread, and to speak from their religious beliefs in this thread.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  8. #6
    Professor KingsGambit's Avatar
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    Here's the question nobody has been able to answer for me:

    Epidemiologists have been suggesting that 18 months of world quarantine may be necessary to contain the disease. However, the mass homelessness that would result from high percentages of the population being unable to work would also be a public health disaster (as homelessness has many noted effects on health). Nobody seems to be taking that into account.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

  9. Amen Cerebrum123, NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  10. #7
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Even when given explicit permission?



    Then it doesn't belong here. Moving.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

  11. #8
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsGambit View Post
    Here's the question nobody has been able to answer for me:

    Epidemiologists have been suggesting that 18 months of world quarantine may be necessary to contain the disease. However, the mass homelessness that would result from high percentages of the population being unable to work would also be a public health disaster (as homelessness has many noted effects on health). Nobody seems to be taking that into account.
    Right. The solution from the governments concerning the Wuhan virus would likely be more detrimental than the direct effects of the virus.

    Taking Hubei Province death rate and developing the death rate on the population, the application of the numbers to Americans would be that 12,700 thousand deaths would occur as a result of the Coronavirus. This compares to the annual flu 12 to 61 thousand flu deaths that we normally see in America. (I had edited the wrong numbers and reversed the statistical estimates -- sorry for those who read the earlier version of this post)
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-19-2020 at 12:20 PM.

  12. #9
    Professor Cerebrum123's Avatar
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    Don't leave much anyway, but this stinks. I hope they figure out something soon.

  13. #10
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsGambit View Post
    Here's the question nobody has been able to answer for me:

    Epidemiologists have been suggesting that 18 months of world quarantine may be necessary to contain the disease. However, the mass homelessness that would result from high percentages of the population being unable to work would also be a public health disaster (as homelessness has many noted effects on health). Nobody seems to be taking that into account.
    why so long? If the disease runs its course in 2 weeks, I would think a month would be enough for all current cases to run their course and either the person recover or die (hopefully after all medical options exhausted). Then the disease would be extinct.

    That would be with a perfect quarantine of course. And you would have to find a place to house the current homeless so they don't just spread it further.

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