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Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

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  • Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model
    DailyWire Mar 26
    Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
    By Amanda Prestigiacomo DailyWire.com


    Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

    Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

    However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

    Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

    Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

    “This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

    “He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.
    Note, as I understand it, some localities may still have common overloads of their hospitals.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020, 03:06 PM.

  • #2
    that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.
      It doesn't have to. Italy has its own problem of a population of elderly people who smoke a lot. There can always be localities which will have problems during this season. Hopefully the excessive attention given to this time will help now and in the future.

      The media will keep milking the COVID-19 issue as long as they can use it against Trump.
      Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020, 03:23 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.
          FWIU, for things like respirators and other supplies they were relying heavily on other member states in the EU if the need arose. When it did the other members said they couldn't spare any and left Italy to fend for themselves (one report even claimed that Germany forbade doctors from leaving the country to help).

          If any of this is true I cannot see Italy staying in the EU after the dust finally settles.

          I'm always still in trouble again

          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
          "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Sparko View Post
            I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?
            Have you been checking for the rate of this virus in your part of the country?

            I have wondered if this virus had been widespread in America during this whole season. It may not have become a headline until after the Wuhan events.

            When was the last time you had bat for lunch? Haha. We may not have evidence that this came from bats--I have not looked into this nor do I plan to eat a bat stew.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
              https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model
              DailyWire Mar 26
              Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
              By Amanda Prestigiacomo DailyWire.com



              Note, as I understand it, some localities may still have common overloads of their hospitals.
              That is nuts. Almost baghdad Bobish. We can see what is happening daily. We are already at 23,621 dead and the number of cases and the number of deaths looks like a rocket headed straight up.

              Global_03262020.jpg
              Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-26-2020, 03:43 PM.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                That is nuts. Almost baghdad Bobish. We can see what is happening daily. We are already at 23,621 dead and the number of cases and the number of deaths looks like a rocket headed straight up.
                You have something saying that UK deaths exceeded 20,000?

                Maybe you misread the initial post.

                As I understand it, the panic in America is largely based on Feguson's projections for the UK.

                I'm not sure why people don't like good news.
                Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020, 03:47 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.
                  They have bunches of OLD people and they ALL SMOKE.
                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                    I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?
                    Yeah, I suspect that's what I had in the Fall, when the doc told me "this stuff (cold/flu/cough) is staying on in people for over a month, when it used to be just about a week".
                    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                      Yeah, I suspect that's what I had in the Fall, when the doc told me "this stuff (cold/flu/cough) is staying on in people for over a month, when it used to be just about a week".
                      A couple years ago, my dad had a cough that lasted for 3 months or so. This can happen any time. Again, I wonder how much this virus would have been found 4 or 5 months ago in the States. We just were not looking for it.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                        A couple years ago, my dad had a cough that lasted for 3 months or so. This can happen any time. Again, I wonder how much this virus would have been found 4 or 5 months ago in the States. We just were not looking for it.
                        guys - there is a reason this is called the NOVEL coronavirus. It is new. It is not a flu virus. AFAIK, They are a completely different kind of virus. This virus evolved from a kind of virus that lives in bats or pangolins, and it evolved in China. The DNA has been sequenced and the mutations required to be transmissible in Humans identified. We know what it came from. And there is no evidence it has been floating around the world for months and months before this happened in China. If it had, given it's mortality and it's genome, we'd have noticed and we would know.

                        https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0317175442.htm
                        Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-26-2020, 04:38 PM.
                        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                          Have you been checking for the rate of this virus in your part of the country?

                          I have wondered if this virus had been widespread in America during this whole season. It may not have become a headline until after the Wuhan events.

                          When was the last time you had bat for lunch? Haha. We may not have evidence that this came from bats--I have not looked into this nor do I plan to eat a bat stew.
                          Considering the measures China took to suppress this, I wouldn't be surprised if it was "in the wild" long before the rest of the world knew the Chinese coronavirus was even a thing.
                          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                          Than a fool in the eyes of God


                          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                            Considering the measures China took to suppress this, I wouldn't be surprised if it was "in the wild" long before the rest of the world knew the Chinese coronavirus was even a thing.
                            There you go again - off with the paranoid conspiracy Thing. Again, we know its origin both genetically and geographically.

                            https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0317175442.htm
                            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                              I'm not sure why people don't like good news.
                              I've been wondering that myself. Anytime something positive is posted concerning the Wuhan flu, folks like oxmixmudd and carpe run in yelling, "But look how scary these projections are!!!!" It's like the liberal pundit who suggested that conservatives and Republicans were more likely to get sick because our optimism would make us less cautious.
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                              Comment

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