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Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

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  • So here's something I don't understand. If you take the total deaths worldwide and divide it into the total infection worldwide, you get a (somewhat naive) mortality rate. If you do that on the historical data, the mortality rate has been climbing relentlessly since February 14. On that day we had 1,526 deaths and 66,895 total infections for a mortality of 2.28%. It climbs almost without drop until today. With 30,249 deaths and 652,079 infections worldwide, the mortality rate stands at 4.64%. Yet all indications are that the true mortality is between 1 and 1.5%. What gives?
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • The funny thing that will happen is that after societies have been financially devastated, there are people who will say the broad quarantines and social separation actually saved us. There will be nothing to prove that and nothing to counter that. Remember that vitamin-C IVs and Chloroquine will continue to help cure those who have gotten the worst effects. People under 50 will not normally be affected by this.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
        Any directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.

        My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.
        I just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          The funny thing that will happen is that after societies have been financially devastated, there are people who will say the broad quarantines and social separation actually saved us. There will be nothing to prove that and nothing to counter that. Remember that vitamin-C IVs and Chloroquine will continue to help cure those who have gotten the worst effects. People under 50 will not normally be affected by this.
          Ummm...not exactly. Here is the CDC information on recommended treatments. We are still in the very early stages of nailing down treatments. Proof of the impact of social separation can be (to some degree) arrived at statistically by looking at the data and comparing isolating groups to non-isolating groups. It's not easy, because there are numerous variables that have to be factored into those studies. However, with this virus worldwide and infections heading for the millions, the body of data should be there.

          And your last statement is accurate, if somewhat misleading. People under 50 have demonstrated morality rates of 0.2 to 0.4%, which is 2-4 times the flu average. But the flu average is for ALL age groups, so the flu mortality for that age group is likewise presumably lower (though I cannot find the numbers). Odds are the same 10-15 multiplier applies. So MOST people under age 50 won't die, but then again "most" people over 80 won't die either. But "won't be affected" is too broad a term. People infected range from asymptomatic to critical. And remember that "mild" in the phrase "80% will be mild" typically means "will not require hospitalization." That doesn't mean they won't be sick and drawing on healthcare resources. I've never had a flu that required hospitalization - but I have been plenty sick and had to get medicine and go to the doctor's. Now imagine heading for the pharmacy and finding that there is as much NyQuil and Tylenol on the shelves as there currently is toilet paper and flour.

          It is to avoid this scenario that some of us are emphasizing prevention, prevention, prevention - isolation, isolation, isolation. We can survive the economic situation as a community if those who have share with those who do not.
          Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-28-2020, 03:39 PM.
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            I was curious, because herd immunity for measles is known to fail when immunity drops to the low 90%. Turns out that 60% is expected to be the threshold for Covid-19. While that can differ by community/locality, if generalized it means close to 200 million infections in the U.S. which translates to approximately 1M dead. Worldwide the numbers would be 4.5B infected and 45M dead.
            A little thought reveals R is the product of R0 and the susceptible ratio. The susceptible ratio is the complement of the population that's developed immunity. Herd immunity is achieved when R falls below 1. The immune population required to achieve an R of 1 is then:
            (R0 - 1) / R0

            To achieve an R of 1, for an R0 of 2.5, as estimated above, that's 1.5/2.5, or 60 percent. For comparison, the R0 for measles is estimated at 12 to 18, with associated herd immunity at 11/12 or 17/18 ... 91.7 to 94.4 percent.

            For an R0 of 2.4, as estimated in the March 16 ICL report, that's 1.4/2.4 or 58.3 percent.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
              A little thought reveals R is the product of R0 and the susceptible ratio. The susceptible ratio is the complement of the population that's developed immunity. Herd immunity is achieved when R falls below 1. The immune population required to achieve an R of 1 is then:
              (R0 - 1) / R0

              To achieve an R of 1, for an R0 of 2.5, as estimated above, that's 1.5/2.5, or 60 percent. For comparison, the R0 for measles is estimated at 12 to 18, with associated herd immunity at 11/12 or 17/18 ... 91.7 to 94.4 percent.

              For an R0 of 2.4, as estimated in the March 16 ICL report, that's 1.4/2.4 or 58.3 percent.
              So I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                I just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.
                Hmmm...You wrote in Post#3:

                The media will keep milking the COVID-19 issue as long as they can use it against Trump.
                Now you're saying criticizing Trump should be off topic when you blatantly defended him!? You can't have your cake and eat it...

                Comment


                • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                  So I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
                  My calculations show the US can get to 58.3 percent by infecting everyone under 45.

                  2020-03-28_16-51-38.jpg

                  I'm pretty sure that's not an option, but it would minimize the body count.

                  Or we can choose long-term suppression, which is what we're going to do, independent of directives from DC.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                    i just don't know what to say.
                    Qft.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                      My calculations show the US can get to 58.3 percent by infecting everyone under 45.

                      [ATTACH=CONFIG]43670[/ATTACH]

                      I'm pretty sure that's not an option, but it would minimize the body count.

                      Or we can choose long-term suppression, which is what we're going to do, independent of directives from DC.
                      Cold...but true. Not sure I'd advocate for it. A classic moral conundrum. Meanwhile, anyone who is still wondering about the severity of things probably hasn't actually seen this graphic.

                      Annotation 2020-03-28 172937.png

                      It's one of the steepest infection curves out there.
                      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                        I just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.
                        This is your thread, so if discussing Trump is off-topic, I will take those discussions elsewhere. However, I agree that it seems somewhat hypocritical to demand no statements criticizing Trump in a thread where you are defending him. On the other hand, you may have posted a defense only in response to our criticism, which would not be hypocritical. I have not gone back to review the sequence.

                        Be that as it may, I will take the discussion elsewhere. As far as I am concerned, Trump's role is central to this issue, and will inevitably surface as I explore various issues related to this pandemic.
                        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          Cold...but true. Not sure I'd advocate for it. A classic moral conundrum. Meanwhile, anyone who is still wondering about the severity of things probably hasn't actually seen this graphic.

                          [ATTACH=CONFIG]43671[/ATTACH]

                          It's one of the steepest infection curves out there.
                          To see a steeper curve on an exponentially increasingly graph, wait until tomorrow. What's needed here is a log-scale, where decreases in slope indicate decreases in R.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                            So I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
                            I don't think everyone need get sick, so long as there is a vaccine. I think the purpose of containment is to help get us there, give us time to get the vaccine, before the hospitals are overwhelmed and many people unnecessarily die.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                              To see a steeper curve on an exponentially increasingly graph, wait until tomorrow. What's needed here is a log-scale, where decreases in slope indicate decreases in R.
                              The problem with a logarithmic scale, for the lay person, is that it blunts the visual urgency provided by the numeric scale. The slope is significantly shallower, so the situation looks less critical.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                                I don't think everyone need get sick, so long as there is a vaccine. I think the purpose of containment is to help get us there, give us time to get the vaccine, before the hospitals are overwhelmed and many people unnecessarily die.
                                You're basically agreeing with me...
                                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                                Comment

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