So here's something I don't understand. If you take the total deaths worldwide and divide it into the total infection worldwide, you get a (somewhat naive) mortality rate. If you do that on the historical data, the mortality rate has been climbing relentlessly since February 14. On that day we had 1,526 deaths and 66,895 total infections for a mortality of 2.28%. It climbs almost without drop until today. With 30,249 deaths and 652,079 infections worldwide, the mortality rate stands at 4.64%. Yet all indications are that the true mortality is between 1 and 1.5%. What gives?
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Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates
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The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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The funny thing that will happen is that after societies have been financially devastated, there are people who will say the broad quarantines and social separation actually saved us. There will be nothing to prove that and nothing to counter that. Remember that vitamin-C IVs and Chloroquine will continue to help cure those who have gotten the worst effects. People under 50 will not normally be affected by this.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostAny directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.
My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostThe funny thing that will happen is that after societies have been financially devastated, there are people who will say the broad quarantines and social separation actually saved us. There will be nothing to prove that and nothing to counter that. Remember that vitamin-C IVs and Chloroquine will continue to help cure those who have gotten the worst effects. People under 50 will not normally be affected by this.
And your last statement is accurate, if somewhat misleading. People under 50 have demonstrated morality rates of 0.2 to 0.4%, which is 2-4 times the flu average. But the flu average is for ALL age groups, so the flu mortality for that age group is likewise presumably lower (though I cannot find the numbers). Odds are the same 10-15 multiplier applies. So MOST people under age 50 won't die, but then again "most" people over 80 won't die either. But "won't be affected" is too broad a term. People infected range from asymptomatic to critical. And remember that "mild" in the phrase "80% will be mild" typically means "will not require hospitalization." That doesn't mean they won't be sick and drawing on healthcare resources. I've never had a flu that required hospitalization - but I have been plenty sick and had to get medicine and go to the doctor's. Now imagine heading for the pharmacy and finding that there is as much NyQuil and Tylenol on the shelves as there currently is toilet paper and flour.
It is to avoid this scenario that some of us are emphasizing prevention, prevention, prevention - isolation, isolation, isolation. We can survive the economic situation as a community if those who have share with those who do not.Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-28-2020, 03:39 PM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostI was curious, because herd immunity for measles is known to fail when immunity drops to the low 90%. Turns out that 60% is expected to be the threshold for Covid-19. While that can differ by community/locality, if generalized it means close to 200 million infections in the U.S. which translates to approximately 1M dead. Worldwide the numbers would be 4.5B infected and 45M dead.
(R0 - 1) / R0
To achieve an R of 1, for an R0 of 2.5, as estimated above, that's 1.5/2.5, or 60 percent. For comparison, the R0 for measles is estimated at 12 to 18, with associated herd immunity at 11/12 or 17/18 ... 91.7 to 94.4 percent.
For an R0 of 2.4, as estimated in the March 16 ICL report, that's 1.4/2.4 or 58.3 percent.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostA little thought reveals R is the product of R0 and the susceptible ratio. The susceptible ratio is the complement of the population that's developed immunity. Herd immunity is achieved when R falls below 1. The immune population required to achieve an R of 1 is then:
(R0 - 1) / R0
To achieve an R of 1, for an R0 of 2.5, as estimated above, that's 1.5/2.5, or 60 percent. For comparison, the R0 for measles is estimated at 12 to 18, with associated herd immunity at 11/12 or 17/18 ... 91.7 to 94.4 percent.
For an R0 of 2.4, as estimated in the March 16 ICL report, that's 1.4/2.4 or 58.3 percent.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.
The media will keep milking the COVID-19 issue as long as they can use it against Trump.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostSo I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
2020-03-28_16-51-38.jpg
I'm pretty sure that's not an option, but it would minimize the body count.
Or we can choose long-term suppression, which is what we're going to do, independent of directives from DC.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostMy calculations show the US can get to 58.3 percent by infecting everyone under 45.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]43670[/ATTACH]
I'm pretty sure that's not an option, but it would minimize the body count.
Or we can choose long-term suppression, which is what we're going to do, independent of directives from DC.
Annotation 2020-03-28 172937.png
It's one of the steepest infection curves out there.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.
Be that as it may, I will take the discussion elsewhere. As far as I am concerned, Trump's role is central to this issue, and will inevitably surface as I explore various issues related to this pandemic.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostCold...but true. Not sure I'd advocate for it. A classic moral conundrum. Meanwhile, anyone who is still wondering about the severity of things probably hasn't actually seen this graphic.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]43671[/ATTACH]
It's one of the steepest infection curves out there.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostSo I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostTo see a steeper curve on an exponentially increasingly graph, wait until tomorrow. What's needed here is a log-scale, where decreases in slope indicate decreases in R.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by JimL View PostI don't think everyone need get sick, so long as there is a vaccine. I think the purpose of containment is to help get us there, give us time to get the vaccine, before the hospitals are overwhelmed and many people unnecessarily die.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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