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Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates
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Originally posted by Starlight View PostI note Cuba sent doctors to Italy to help.
Just something for you "no communist country ever did anything at all good in any way ever" guys to bear in mind.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostThat's a reasonable question, but it doesn't work, from what I know. Covid-19 isn't just flu-like symptoms, it's people coughing up blood on ventilators filling ICUs. Is that what we were seeing in the fall? And if it's increasing exponentially now, that can only mean it would have been increasing at least as quickly then. Total morbidity doesn't support that.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostThe numbers will increase exponentially until one of two things happens, an appreciable fraction of the 80 percent expected to be infected have been infected or suppression methods are successful in bringing R0 down below 1. That number will be reflected in a figure that's being widely reported, doubling time.
But yeah, ten doublings is a factor of a thousand.
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Originally posted by Dimbulb View PostI note Cuba sent doctors to Italy to help.
Just something for you "no communist country ever did anything at all good in any way ever" guys to bear in mind.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Sparko View Postthe more that recover, the more of a herd protection they will provide, causing the r0 to drop as the virus can't find others to infect.
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Originally posted by NorrinRadd View PostIf "suppression" means "shutdown" for several months, let alone the 18 months needed to achieve a vaccine, it's not possible.
The alternative is a million deaths with body counts rising horrifically in the teeth of a national election.
That won't happen.
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostA New York Times columnist blames this whole situation on Christians, because supposedly science and religion are antithetical.
https://www.breitbart.com/faith/2020...irus-pandemic/
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostThe ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by Sparko View Postthe more that recover, the more of a herd protection they will provide, causing the r0 to drop as the virus can't find others to infect.
If a vaccine is a year off, trying to push the infection rate down until that vaccine becomes available, putting all possible resources towards the development of that vaccine, boosting testing to identify infections early, continuing social distancing and other mitigation practices, and working to determine and share best practices for treatment seem the most viable paths to minimize deaths.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostI've finally taken the time to examine the ICL report more carefully. Based on that report, yes, suppression will involve "shutdown" for the first few months to break the back of the curve. While it can include breaks from social distancing from time to time, a considerable proportion of the time it takes to achieve a vaccine will be spent under restrictive NPIs.
The alternative is a million deaths with body counts rising horrifically in the teeth of a national election.
That won't happen.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostDon't be sure "that won't happen." We have an occupant of the White House that prizes loyalty and fluffing his feathers above anything else. He has publicly confessed to telling his VP not to call any governor that is not adequately appreciative. He can't even suppress his own ego to put his own population first. And the only thing he values above money is tearing down anything associated with Obama, and he is jockey to have control over the stimulus money just allocated by Congress. I suspect this is going to continue to be a mess and the deaths will indeed mount up.
My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.Last edited by Juvenal; 03-28-2020, 02:43 PM.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostAny directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.
My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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