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Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
    The estimates for covid-19 are 80 percent, or around 250 million infected, and an IFR around 1 percent.

    That's 2.5 million.

    The ICL study examined a number of NPIs separately and in tandem and estimated that number could be cut in half.
    Do you have a source for this? I'd love to look at it.

    Thanks!

    ETA: While looking for that, I came across an interesting article about the UK, where they were attempting to get to "excess deaths," which is deaths that would not have occurred without the Covid-19 virus. This factors in people with underlying conditions who would have been expected to survive those conditions for the next year without the virus. If their estimates prove to be correct, and this trend extends around the world, the numbers are a bit scary.
    Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-27-2020, 07:47 AM.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
      But did he consider the reduction of death rate by use of chloroquine? Also, he partly contradicts the message conveyed by the UK taking COVID-19 off the HCID status.

      At the same time, we recognize that the mass media tries to portray Trump in negative ways.
      Trump portrays Trump in negative ways. The media just reports on what he is doing and its consequences
      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
        Trump portrays Trump in negative ways. The media just reports on what he is doing and its consequences
        The MSM also continues to shamelessly lie about things like Trump dismantling our response to infectious diseases established under the Obamessiah during Ebola (it was designed as a temporary agency and in any case was not disbanded but rather rolled into FEMA's bioterrorism unit since the response would be the same), Trump cut the CDC's budget, and that Trump called the Chicom coronavirus a "hoax" (he called the left's often false criticisms a "hoax") in order to feed the TDS crowd with their daily fix of Orange Man Ban.


        These are still regularly disseminated by the MSM.

        I'm always still in trouble again

        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          The MSM also continues to shamelessly lie about things like Trump dismantling our response to infectious diseases established under the Obamessiah during Ebola (it was designed as a temporary agency and in any case was not disbanded but rather rolled into FEMA's bioterrorism unit since the response would be the same), Trump cut the CDC's budget, and that Trump called the Chicom coronavirus a "hoax" (he called the left's often false criticisms a "hoax") in order to feed the TDS crowd with their daily fix of Orange Man Ban.


          These are still regularly disseminated by the MSM.
          This claim has been made over and over again. I have yet to see a single source corroborating it.
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
            You're just letting your hatred stop up your brain.
            This is not helpful, Jim.

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
              This claim has been made over and over again. I have yet to see a single source corroborating it.
              There are numerous threads here where these claims are repeatedly made and responded to citing various fact checkers (with histories of not liking Trump much) calling them B.S.

              I'm always still in trouble again

              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                These are still regularly disseminated by the MSM.
                This isn't helpful, either.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  There are numerous threads here where these claims are repeatedly made and responded to citing various fact checkers (with histories of not liking Trump much) calling them B.S.
                  I have yet to see a single one. Just a repetition of the claim...over and over. I have not found any corroboration online.


                  ETA: I just found this article, which suggests that there are elements of truth on both sides. It is backed up by a couple other articles I found. The office was apparently disbanded. It's functions were subsumed under another agency. It also lost focus because rather than being led by someone at a director level, it was handed off to "worker bees." You see this in commercial companies often. A project that has its own director and chain of command is disbanded and subsumed in another organization. Almost always it is because that project is no longer seen as "key" and its resources are being stripped, as well as its voice at the director level. The best that can be said here, AFAICT, is that Trump is not alone in doing this. Three previous presidents also downgraded this team shortly after taking office, and most of them ultimately paid for that decision. Trump is paying for it now.
                  Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-27-2020, 09:33 AM.
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                    This isn't helpful, either.
                    And yet incontrovertibly true.

                    I'm always still in trouble again

                    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                      No doubt this positive report will be met with howls of "But look at these scary, scary numbers over here! We're all DOOMED!"
                      Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      I came across an interesting article about the UK, where they were attempting to get to "excess deaths," which is deaths that would not have occurred without the Covid-19 virus. This factors in people with underlying conditions who would have been expected to survive those conditions for the next year without the virus. If their estimates prove to be correct, and this trend extends around the world, the numbers are a bit scary.
                      Boy are you guys predictable.
                      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                      Than a fool in the eyes of God


                      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        I have yet to see a single one. Just a repetition of the claim...over and over. I have not found any corroboration online.
                        Both my TV and internet are acting up so I'm experiencing long pauses every dozen seconds or so, so this wrt to Trump calling the coronavirus a hoax will have to do -- and this just covers the past week.

                        Just yesterday on MSNBC Live, the host, and NBC News Senior Business correspondent, Stephanie Ruhle was pushing the hoax myth (which has been debunked by such bastions of right wing thought as Snopes and the Washington Post among others) saying that "a few weeks ago the president was calling this a hoax" in reference to the Chicom coronavirus.

                        Likewise, a week ago Lawrence O’Donnell the host of that network's The Last Word continued to push this story "and now [the President] falsely claims he always knew it would be a pandemic even when he said it was a hoax."

                        A couple days ago AOC was on CNN with Jake Tapper he allowed her to repeated claim that Trump called the Chicom coronavirus a hoax, never once challenging her and quickly changing the subject when she finally paused.

                        He took heat for his and rationalized his failure in a tweet:


                        Over on ABC's The View, which the New York Times called the "most important political talk show in America" and last week Whoopi Goldberg informed viewers that China never blamed the U.S. military for giving them the Chicom coronavirus) co-host Sunny Hostin has repeatedly pushed the discredited allegation that Trump said that the virus was a hoax including this week.


                        [*Preparing for carpe's trademark hand waving dismissal in 3... 2... 1...*]
                        Last edited by rogue06; 03-27-2020, 10:05 AM.

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          Both my TV and internet are acting up so I'm experiencing long pauses every dozen seconds or so, so this wrt to Trump calling the coronavirus a hoax will have to do -- and this just covers the past week.

                          Just yesterday on MSNBC Live, the host, and NBC News Senior Business correspondent, Stephanie Ruhle was pushing the hoax myth (which has been debunked by such bastions of right wing thought as Snopes and the Washington Post among others) saying that "a few weeks ago the president was calling this a hoax" in reference to the Chicom coronavirus.

                          Likewise, a week ago Lawrence O’Donnell the host of that network's The Last Word continued to push this story "and now [the President] falsely claims he always knew it would be a pandemic even when he said it was a hoax."

                          A day or so before AOC was on CNN with Jake Tapper he allowed her to repeated claim that Trump called the Chicom coronavirus a hoax, never once challeging her and quickly changing the subject when she finally paused.

                          He took heat for his and rationalized his failure in a tweet:

                          [ATTACH=CONFIG]43615[/ATTACH]

                          Over on ABC's The View, which the New York Times called the "most important political talk show in America" and last week Whoopi Goldberg informed viewers that China never blamed the U.S. military for giving them the Chicom coronavirus) co-host Sunny Hostin has repeatedly pushed the discredited allegation that Trump said that the virus was a hoax including this week.


                          [*Preparing for carpe's trademark hand waving dismissal in 3... 2... 1...*]
                          I have no clue what this has to do with my question. However, I added to my original post and you apparently posted as I was adding it. I recommend you back to my original post.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Great. This is going to used by science skeptics to play down the value of science. I was just reading an article that said if this coronavirus model is wrong, how do we know the climate models are right?

                            On the other hand, it does show that if scientist want to be viewed as reliable, they better getting it right.
                            "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

                            "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                              Both my TV and internet are acting up so I'm experiencing long pauses every dozen seconds or so, so this wrt to Trump calling the coronavirus a hoax will have to do -- and this just covers the past week.

                              Just yesterday on MSNBC Live, the host, and NBC News Senior Business correspondent, Stephanie Ruhle was pushing the hoax myth (which has been debunked by such bastions of right wing thought as Snopes and the Washington Post among others) saying that "a few weeks ago the president was calling this a hoax" in reference to the Chicom coronavirus.

                              Likewise, a week ago Lawrence O’Donnell the host of that network's The Last Word continued to push this story "and now [the President] falsely claims he always knew it would be a pandemic even when he said it was a hoax."

                              A couple days ago AOC was on CNN with Jake Tapper he allowed her to repeated claim that Trump called the Chicom coronavirus a hoax, never once challenging her and quickly changing the subject when she finally paused.

                              He took heat for his and rationalized his failure in a tweet:

                              [ATTACH=CONFIG]43615[/ATTACH]

                              Over on ABC's The View, which the New York Times called the "most important political talk show in America" and last week Whoopi Goldberg informed viewers that China never blamed the U.S. military for giving them the Chicom coronavirus) co-host Sunny Hostin has repeatedly pushed the discredited allegation that Trump said that the virus was a hoax including this week.


                              [*Preparing for carpe's trademark hand waving dismissal in 3... 2... 1...*]
                              It makes you wonder, if President Trump is really as bad as liberals say he is, then why do to they have to keep telling lies in an attempt to make him look bad?
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post
                                Great. This is going to used by science skeptics to play down the value of science. I was just reading an article that said if this coronavirus model is wrong, how do we know the climate models are right?

                                On the other hand, it does show that if scientist want to be viewed as reliable, they better getting it right.
                                A New York Times columnist blames this whole situation on Christians, because supposedly science and religion are antithetical.

                                https://www.breitbart.com/faith/2020...irus-pandemic/
                                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                                Comment

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