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Thread: Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

  1. #31
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    How do you know it didn't? Since the Chinese coronavirus presents with flu like symptoms then it's probable that any related deaths could have been attributed to the common flu since doctors wouldn't have known to test for anything else.
    That's a reasonable question, but it doesn't work, from what I know. Covid-19 isn't just flu-like symptoms, it's people coughing up blood on ventilators filling ICUs. Is that what we were seeing in the fall? And if it's increasing exponentially now, that can only mean it would have been increasing at least as quickly then. Total morbidity doesn't support that.

  2. #32
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Fair enough.
    I'm freaking, myself, with a niece who's already in quarantine and a brother with chronic respiratory issues. I'm beyond terrified I'm going to lose him to this.

    Running the numbers has been horrifying. I'd really like my estimates to be wrong.

  3. #33
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    IF they did, no. The problem is this virus is a natural mutation that made its way to humans through closer proximity to the carrier. And yes, it may have been a cultural affinity for those animals meat that allowed that to happen. But then again, the Europeans wiped out most native americans when they came here bringing syphilis which the Indians had no natural immunity to.

    What you have is a government that wanted to contain it themselves and they didn't. A mistake - yes. Unexpected, no. Irresponsible - sure.

    Do I think they were bad wrong to handle it like they did - yes. Typical authoritarian deal. Very bad.

    Does any of that mean it's been floating around the US for months before we learned of it in China?

    NO!

    You're just letting your hatred stop up your brain.
    While there were a whole slew of contagious diseases brought to the New World it looks like syphilis was present in the Western Hemisphere before the Europeans arrived and was likely taken back to Europe by early explorers.

    I'm always still in trouble again

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  4. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  5. #34
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zara View Post
    One sobering number I found recently is that the number of deaths has increased by between 13-14% per day for the past week. If that trend continues then 1 million people will have passed in one month, 36 million in two and 1.6 billion in three (although the peak will likely have passed by then) to the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/
    The numbers will increase exponentially until one of two things happens, an appreciable fraction of the 80 percent expected to be infected have been infected or suppression methods are successful in bringing R0 down below 1. That number will be reflected in a figure that's being widely reported, doubling time.

    But yeah, ten doublings is a factor of a thousand.

  6. #35
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zara View Post
    One sobering number I found recently is that the number of deaths has increased by between 13-14% per day for the past week. If that trend continues then 1 million people will have passed in one month, 36 million in two and 1.6 billion in three (although the peak will likely have passed by then) to the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/
    With a mortality rate that seems to be somewhere between 1% and 1.5%, strongly skewed to the most elderly, we are extremely unlikely to get to 1.6B deaths even if every human being in the world contracted it. I also think we're unlikely to get to 1M deaths in the U.S. Although this is not the flu, it seems to have infection characteristics that are similar. An average of 34M get the flu each year, and an average of 34K die - hence the 0.1% mortality. There are no "corona-shots" akin to the flu shots, so that is a negative. But we also do not heavily engage social distancing for the flu, which is a positive. Will these two factors balance each other out? Is one more or less determinate than the other? We don't know. Best guess based on the available data - we see deaths in the low 100Ks. That assumes infection rates comparable to the flu and impacts of social distancing having a greater impact than the lack of a vaccine. But a lot of that depends on timing. If we overwhelm our healthcare resources, and if we continue to lack adequate PPE resources, we could share Italy's experience.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

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  7. Amen shunyadragon amen'd this post.
  8. #36
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    An average of 34M get the flu each year, and an average of 34K die - hence the 0.1% mortality.
    The estimates for covid-19 are 80 percent, or around 250 million infected, and an IFR around 1 percent.

    That's 2.5 million.

    The ICL study examined a number of NPIs separately and in tandem and estimated that number could be cut in half.

  9. #37
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    I'm freaking, myself, with a niece who's already in quarantine and a brother with chronic respiratory issues. I'm beyond terrified I'm going to lose him to this.

    Running the numbers has been horrifying. I'd really like my estimates to be wrong.
    Yeah, a city worker in town was confirmed to have COVID.
    Our Church Nursery worker's husband works with that man.
    I had the unpleasant job of notifying the parents of children who had contact with her 2 weeks ago, but for whatever reason that was a very LOW ATTENDANCE nursery day - only 3 kids from 2 families.
    Everybody took it well, as it's extremely unlikely the timeline allows for infection, but I let them know out of an abundance of caution.

    The scary part is that one of the children is the grandchild of the man who is dying of a variant of ALS.

    Again, HIGHLY unlikely we have a problem, but...
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  10. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    FWIU, for things like respirators and other supplies they were relying heavily on other member states in the EU if the need arose. When it did the other members said they couldn't spare any and left Italy to fend for themselves (one report even claimed that Germany forbade doctors from leaving the country to help).

    If any of this is true I cannot see Italy staying in the EU after the dust finally settles.
    The EU donated all of it's aid from China, including medical equipment, masks, test kits, etc. to Italy.

  11. #39
    tWebber Darth Executor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    There you go again - off with the paranoid conspiracy Thing. Again, we know its origin both genetically and geographically.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0317175442.htm
    Yes but neither of those things tell us WHEN it made its way into the human population which is the issue in question.
    "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

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  12. Amen Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  13. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    The estimates for covid-19 are 80 percent, or around 250 million infected, and an IFR around 1 percent.

    That's 2.5 million.

    The ICL study examined a number of NPIs separately and in tandem and estimated that number could be cut in half.
    The UK estimate, when applied to the US, would mean 104,000 deaths (in a population of 330Million). But even the original report said no more than 20,000 in the UK. So your estimate of 2.5 million looks rather high. But if you are into super scary numbers, live by your estimate. The higher end of deaths by flu in the states is 61,000 in a year. So if we stay below this 104,000 in the US (or 20k in the UK), we are have the equivalent of a doubly-bad flu season, not millions in the US. (I have not carefully checked my calculations but they should give a better sense of the worst-case magnitude.)

    Yes. Take a few precautions. Maybe people over 70 should reduce contact with people. And certainly, if possible, reduce the consumption of bat stew.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020 at 08:19 PM.

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