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Thread: Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

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    Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model
    DailyWire Mar 26
    Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
    By Amanda Prestigiacomo DailyWire.com


    Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

    Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

    However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

    Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

    Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

    “This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

    “He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.
    Note, as I understand it, some localities may still have common overloads of their hospitals.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020 at 01:06 PM.

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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.
    It doesn't have to. Italy has its own problem of a population of elderly people who smoke a lot. There can always be localities which will have problems during this season. Hopefully the excessive attention given to this time will help now and in the future.

    The media will keep milking the COVID-19 issue as long as they can use it against Trump.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020 at 01:23 PM.

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    I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.
    FWIU, for things like respirators and other supplies they were relying heavily on other member states in the EU if the need arose. When it did the other members said they couldn't spare any and left Italy to fend for themselves (one report even claimed that Germany forbade doctors from leaving the country to help).

    If any of this is true I cannot see Italy staying in the EU after the dust finally settles.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?
    Have you been checking for the rate of this virus in your part of the country?

    I have wondered if this virus had been widespread in America during this whole season. It may not have become a headline until after the Wuhan events.

    When was the last time you had bat for lunch? Haha. We may not have evidence that this came from bats--I have not looked into this nor do I plan to eat a bat stew.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model
    DailyWire Mar 26
    Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
    By Amanda Prestigiacomo DailyWire.com



    Note, as I understand it, some localities may still have common overloads of their hospitals.
    That is nuts. Almost baghdad Bobish. We can see what is happening daily. We are already at 23,621 dead and the number of cases and the number of deaths looks like a rocket headed straight up.

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    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-26-2020 at 01:43 PM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    That is nuts. Almost baghdad Bobish. We can see what is happening daily. We are already at 23,621 dead and the number of cases and the number of deaths looks like a rocket headed straight up.
    You have something saying that UK deaths exceeded 20,000?

    Maybe you misread the initial post.

    As I understand it, the panic in America is largely based on Feguson's projections for the UK.

    I'm not sure why people don't like good news.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020 at 01:47 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    that doesn't explain why Italy is so overwhelmed that they ran out of beds and respirators.
    They have bunches of OLD people and they ALL SMOKE.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?
    Yeah, I suspect that's what I had in the Fall, when the doc told me "this stuff (cold/flu/cough) is staying on in people for over a month, when it used to be just about a week".
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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