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Thread: Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

  1. #21
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Good grief you're ignorant, and dead set against the Chinese government being held accountable.

    China lied, and people died. That's a fact. It's also a fact that this pandemic originated in China. It's called the Wuhan coronavirus. Period. China discovered evidence of this pneumonia-like illness in December and ordered its scientists to destroy samples. China dragged its feet when it came to informing the public. It kept information about human-to-human transmission buried. It kept medical crews in the dark and strong-armed doctors who were trying to do the right thing. But somehow, it's not China's fault. I cannot eye-roll hard enough. And remember, the World Health Organization pretty much spread Chinese misinformation in January...

    The World Health Organization (WHO) is now haunted by a tweet it sent earlier this year when it cited Chinese health officials who claimed there had been no human transmissions of the novel coronavirus within the country yet.

    The Jan. 14 tweet came less than two months before WHO declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic.

    "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China," the organization had said.

    It also relied on information from Chinese health authorities who have been accused of obscuring facts and figures during the course of the outbreak.

    The Chinese government reportedly knew the disease was spreading before the tweet was sent, according to the South China Morning Post.

    And yet, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continues to praise China for its transparency over this fiasco, according to the Daily Caller. It all makes sense when you find out that China had backed Tedros' 2017 bid to be WHO director-general. Talk about quid pro quo, huh?

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattve...virus-n2565648

    Would it really kill you to admit that the Chinese government bears the lion's share of the blame for this?
    IF they did, no. The problem is this virus is a natural mutation that made its way to humans through closer proximity to the carrier. And yes, it may have been a cultural affinity for those animals meat that allowed that to happen. But then again, the Europeans wiped out most native americans when they came here bringing syphilis which the Indians had no natural immunity to.

    What you have is a government that wanted to contain it themselves and they didn't. A mistake - yes. Unexpected, no. Irresponsible - sure.

    Do I think they were bad wrong to handle it like they did - yes. Typical authoritarian deal. Very bad.

    Does any of that mean it's been floating around the US for months before we learned of it in China?

    NO!

    You're just letting your hatred stop up your brain.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-26-2020 at 03:12 PM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  2. #22
    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    FWIU, for things like respirators and other supplies they were relying heavily on other member states in the EU if the need arose. When it did the other members said they couldn't spare any and left Italy to fend for themselves (one report even claimed that Germany forbade doctors from leaving the country to help).
    I note Cuba sent doctors to Italy to help.

    Just something for you "no communist country ever did anything at all good in any way ever" guys to bear in mind.

  3. #23
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    The original prediction was a bad unprofessional decision, and can unreasonably cause panic. The original spread and nature of the virus in China did not reflect such a prediction.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  4. #24
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    What you have is a government that wanted to contain it themselves and they didn't. A mistake - yes. Unexpected, no. Irresponsible - sure.

    Do I think they were bad wrong to handle it like they did - yes. Typical authoritarian deal. Very bad.

    Does any of that mean it's been floating around the US for months before we learned of it in China?

    NO!

    You're just letting your hatred stop up your brain.
    Good grief, what a white wash! China did not make mere "mistakes", they deliberately suppressed information, they "silenced" (in many cases permanently) anybody who criticized the Chinese government or tried to blow the whistle, they lied about the severity of the illness and risk of transmission. They knew about it before they admitted to it in late December. The question is, how long before?

    I don't know why you're so married to this narrative that China played it straight despite all evidence to the contrary.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  5. Amen RumTumTugger, Darth Executor, NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  6. #25
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?
    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Yeah, I suspect that's what I had in the Fall, when the doc told me "this stuff (cold/flu/cough) is staying on in people for over a month, when it used to be just about a week".
    If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.

    On the other hand, our resident crank might be onto something really positive here. That ICL report is the one I've been relying on for my projections. If the R0 is much higher than previously reported, then a much higher proportion of the population may already be infected, implying a much earlier and smaller peak.

    Consider ten doublings, a reasonable estimate if it's been doubling every two to three days for a month:

    (3/2.5)^10 = 6.191736422 times as many would already have been infected

    For two months:

    (3/2.5)^20 = 38.337599924 times as many would already have been infected

    But without testing, there's no good way to know. The official figures reported on the John Hopkins dashboard are currently at 83,507, or 0.025 percent, a quarter of a tenth of a percent.

    Meanwhile, Reuters is saying 2.6 percent of respondents to a recent poll claim to have been diagnosed with covid-19.

    I'm going with the best numbers I can find. It's frustrating to know those numbers may be off as much as two orders of magnitude.

  7. #26
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.

    On the other hand, our resident crank might be onto something really positive here. That ICL report is the one I've been relying on for my projections. If the R0 is much higher than previously reported, then a much higher proportion of the population may already be infected, implying a much earlier and smaller peak.

    Consider ten doublings, a reasonable estimate if it's been doubling every two to three days for a month:

    (3/2.5)^10 = 6.191736422 times as many would already have been infected

    For two months:

    (3/2.5)^20 = 38.337599924 times as many would already have been infected

    But without testing, there's no good way to know. The official figures reported on the John Hopkins dashboard are currently at 83,507, or 0.025 percent, a quarter of a tenth of a percent.

    Meanwhile, Reuters is saying 2.6 percent of respondents to a recent poll claim to have been diagnosed with covid-19.

    I'm going with the best numbers I can find. It's frustrating to know those numbers may be off as much as two orders of magnitude.
    One sobering number I found recently is that the number of deaths has increased by between 13-14% per day for the past week. If that trend continues then 1 million people will have passed in one month, 36 million in two and 1.6 billion in three (although the peak will likely have passed by then) to the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/

  8. #27
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.
    How do you know it didn't? Since the Chinese coronavirus presents with flu like symptoms then it's probable that any related deaths could have been attributed to the common flu since doctors wouldn't have known to test for anything else.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  9. Amen DesertBerean, NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  10. #28
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    How do you know it didn't? Since the Chinese coronavirus presents with flu like symptoms then it's probable that any related deaths could have been attributed to the common flu since doctors wouldn't have known to test for anything else.
    Magic, it must be magic. Is that the answer? Dark magic, I assume. It must be, is that what's infecting your dull little brain?

  11. #29
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zero View Post
    Magic, it must be magic. Is that the answer? Dark magic, I assume. It must be, is that what's infecting your dull little brain?
    Sorry, I don't speak nonsense, so I have no idea what you're trying to say.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  12. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  13. #30
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.
    Fair enough.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  14. Amen DesertBerean amen'd this post.

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