Page 6 of 13 FirstFirst ... 45678 ... LastLast
Results 51 to 60 of 122

Thread: Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

  1. #51
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,662
    Amen (Given)
    374
    Amen (Received)
    948
    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    The original prediction seems to be based on the UK doing nothing much. Now that the UK closed down pubs, colleges, etc, R0 changes and everything has to be revised.
    But did he consider the reduction of death rate by use of chloroquine? Also, he partly contradicts the message conveyed by the UK taking COVID-19 off the HCID status.

    At the same time, we recognize that the mass media tries to portray Trump in negative ways.

  2. #52
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,273
    Amen (Given)
    172
    Amen (Received)
    585
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    But did he consider the reduction of death rate by use of chloroquine?
    I don't know about this specifically. In general, like I said, the doctors are getting better over time at educated guessing on how to treat the virus and not getting infected themselves, which means that actual fatality rate is changing over time, meaning the models need to be revised over time.

    The models aren't good for much except to frighten people and this has been a success. Meanwhile demi yawns.
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

  3. #53
    radical strawberry
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Humanist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,169
    Amen (Given)
    563
    Amen (Received)
    1207
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Dr. Deborah Birx on Thursday provided encouraging coronavirus numbers suggesting that some of the predictive models were incorrect.

    “There’s no model right now, no reality on the ground, where we can see that 60-70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next 10-12 weeks,” she said.

    Without specifically naming the Imperial College, Brix referred to models that predicted there could be 500,000 coronavirus deaths in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.

    The scientist of the model revised the estimate of deaths in the United Kingdom to be roughly 20,000 people or fewer.

    Birx said that the actual data coming in from other countries were different than some of the direst projections.

    She noted that in major countries, there was never an attack rate of over one in over 1,000 people.

    “The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...s-predictions/

    No doubt this positive report will be met with howls of "But look at these scary, scary numbers over here! We're all DOOMED!"
    So I'd imagine that by attack rate she means infection rate. The current US rate from Johns Hopkins is .00025, or one quarter of that one in a thousand figure she's using.

    The relevant portion of the parliamentary interview with Ferguson begins at 10:36:13.

    Ferguson's revised figures suggest that the infection rate may peak around 5 percent of the population or perhaps 10 percent at the outside. But it needs to be emphasized that Ferguson's revised estimates are based on the recently intensified NPIs in place in the UK. Without the NPIs, or if the NPIs are relaxed, suppression will end, and the previous mortality figures will once again apply.

    It should be noted that 5 percent infection rate compares to an original estimate of over 80 percent, a factor of 16. That's where the decrease in mortality is coming from. Applying that figure to the previous estimate under mitigation of about a million deaths in the USA would bring our number down to 62,500.

    So yeah, this is good news if we can achieve and maintain suppression until there's a vaccine.

  4. #54
    radical strawberry
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Humanist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,169
    Amen (Given)
    563
    Amen (Received)
    1207
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    One link (which I can only partially read on this side of the paywall) is https://www.wsj.com/articles/should-...er-11585239104
    I'm a subscriber, and I was probably reading it when you were composing that. It's an opinion piece that fails to note the need to maintain suppression. That's incredibly irresponsible, but likely of little import. Everybody's got relatives at risk here, and nobody with relatives at risk is going to be accepting medical advice from a banker.

  5. #55
    radical strawberry
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Humanist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,169
    Amen (Given)
    563
    Amen (Received)
    1207
    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    I'm a subscriber, and I was probably reading it when you were composing that. It's an opinion piece that fails to note the need to maintain suppression. That's incredibly irresponsible, but likely of little import. Everybody's got relatives at risk here, and nobody with relatives at risk is going to be accepting medical advice from a banker.
    Freeman's getting reamed in the comments. Or let me say that more emphatically, he's getting reamed in the comments section of the WSJ. That's friendly fire.

  6. #56
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,662
    Amen (Given)
    374
    Amen (Received)
    948
    There are others who note that the current coronavirus panic is improper.

    Here is a snippet from an interview with Yoram Lass, Former Health Ministry Chief of Israel

    Interviewer: So what did you mean?

    Yoram Lass "To say that in life we take risks, and I've got some examples: when we drive in the car we cause the deaths of about 350 people per year (in Israel). if we stopped all transportation in Israel, we would save their lives. We would save them."

    "Another example: many soldiers who are young and have their entire lives before them are killed so that the defense plans and policies can be implemented, and which are sometimes deluded. So because of the risk we should dismantle the IDF in order to save the soldiers' lives?"

    If we get back to our example, the medical price of what is happening now resembles price paid for the seasonal flu virus that we have every fall. In the State of Israel, 126 people die, in the US 40,000 people, in Italy 17,000 and that's the price we are prepared to pay to live normal lives."

    The economic damage is harder than the health damage

    "I call it the economic and social Yom Kippur. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have lost their livelihood and their support and many more will die from heart attacks and anxiety or depression as a result of this. So in life we take risks and pay the price."
    Link: https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-l...acy-1001322696

  7. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  8. #57
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,662
    Amen (Given)
    374
    Amen (Received)
    948
    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    I'm a subscriber, and I was probably reading it when you were composing that. It's an opinion piece that fails to note the need to maintain suppression. That's incredibly irresponsible, but likely of little import. Everybody's got relatives at risk here, and nobody with relatives at risk is going to be accepting medical advice from a banker.
    Note: I was just trying to add the missing link to Ferguson's statement. The search showed the WSJ article.

  9. #58
    radical strawberry
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Humanist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,169
    Amen (Given)
    563
    Amen (Received)
    1207
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Note: I was just trying to add the missing link to Ferguson's statement. The search showed the WSJ article.
    Ferguson's statement is an update to the o/p article.

  10. #59
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,662
    Amen (Given)
    374
    Amen (Received)
    948
    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    Ferguson's statement is an update to the o/p article.
    I'm glad you perceived that as roughly being the purpose of his tweet. I didn't want you to miss that point.

    I become suspicious for his lack of clarity of this before going before Parliament. After meeting with Parliament, he could have been coerced to give a new 'context' to his testimony.

  11. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  12. #60
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Southeastern U.S. of A.
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    59,338
    Amen (Given)
    1218
    Amen (Received)
    21625
    Quote Originally Posted by JimL View Post
    The EU donated all of it's aid from China, including medical equipment, masks, test kits, etc. to Italy.
    Source: Italy wonders where Europe’s solidarity is as coronavirus strains show


    Germany blocks exports of medical supplies to Rome and ECB president shakes market confidence

    As the number of patients requiring intensive care balloons and hospitals run out of intensive care beds, doctors were instructed to “aim to guarantee intensive treatment to patients with the greatest chance of therapeutic success”.

    With the grim task of selecting patients unlikely to survive, Italy’s health authorities have pleaded with the country’s friends and allies for emergency supplies. On Thursday, they finally arrived — from Shanghai. The China Eastern flight brought a medical team and 31 tonnes of supplies including ventilators.

    Beijing’s gesture has reinforced a perceived lack of support from Europe, compounded by a communications blunder by the European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde, who implied on Thursday it was no longer her job to keep Italy in the euro.

    When Italy asked for urgent medical supplies under a special European crisis mechanism no EU country responded. Fearful of its own shortages, Germany initially banned the export of medical masks and other protective gear. 3M, a producer, said the German restrictions had made it impossible to supply the Italian market. Berlin subsequently relaxed the export rules, but then Austria closed its borders to people arriving from Italy unless they could prove they were virus-free.

    The rebuffs are nourishing resentment that Italy has been abandoned by its European friends. It is a perception that has taken root over a decade, of a currency union that lacks collective solidarity and stifles growth as Italy confronted migrant flows from Africa and the Middle East. This, in turn, has fuelled the rise of Eurosceptic nationalists such as far-right firebrand Matteo Salvini.

    “It is back to the future, where Italy is left on its own,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome. “It was the case with the eurozone crisis, then the migrant crisis of 2015-16 and now the coronavirus crisis. It is the same old story and the political implications could be massive.”

    As Rome’s anger mounted this week, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, tried to reassure Italians the EU was on their side, promising flexibility over EU deficit rules and a €25bn investment fund for fighting the crisis across the bloc. But the warm words from Brussels were soon drowned out by a message from Frankfurt.

    Christine Lagarde’s comment that it was not the ECB’s job to “close the spreads” between 10-year Italian government bonds and German Bunds — a measure of the risk differential between the two sovereign debts — caused it to spike by 60 basis points, the biggest daily increase on record. The FTSE MIB, Milan’s blue-chip stock index, plummeted 17 per cent, its biggest daily drop, out-slumping other equity markets on a terrible day for investors around the world.

    “Italy needed help and it has been given a slap in the face,” said Matteo Salvini, leader of the nationalist League party who said he would look into seeking compensation from the central bank.

    He added: “The only help that has come from Europe has been to cause the collapse of the stock market and to make the spread go crazy. Yesterday Italy lost €68bn of savings.”


    Source

    © Copyright Original Source



    Source: Coronavirus: Italian doctor accuses EU states of ‘shameful abdication of responsibility’


    FRANCE AND GERMANY stopped giving medical assistance and supplies to Italy during the coronavirus outbreak last week - in what has been dubbed a shameful abdication of responsibility by a renowned Italian doctor and politician.

    Last week, Italy went into lockdown. Schools and universities are closed, football games are suspended, and restaurant visits are banned amid a rapid spread of the novel coronavirus in the country. Just grocery stores and pharmacies are allowed to stay open, and only essential travel is permitted. But despite the restrictive measures, the number of people infected and dying from coronavirus is rising. On Wednesday, Italy recorded 475 in one day – the biggest increase since the outbreak.

    When COVID-19 started spreading rapidly, the country appealed for help via the Emergency Response Coordination Centre, a special European crisis mechanism.

    However, no EU country responded.

    Fearful of its own shortages, Germany initially banned the export of medical masks and other protective gear.

    3M, a producer, said the German restrictions had made it impossible to supply the Italian market.

    France and Czech Republic which – together with Germany and Poland – are the main face mask manufacturers, also stopped exporting them.


    Source

    © Copyright Original Source



    Source: EU fails to persuade France, Germany to lift coronavirus health gear controls


    EU officials sought in vain on Friday to persuade France, Germany and other European countries to lift controls on the export of protective medical gear, which officials said could hurt the bloc’s collective effort to fight the coronavirus.

    Countries including Germany, France and the Czech Republic have announced bans on exports of protective gear to avoid shortages at home, measures that go against the spirit of free movement of goods within the EU.

    Such bans “risk undermining our collective approach to handle this crisis” EU crisis management commissioner Janez Lenarcic said at an emergency meeting in Brussels, where officials urged solidarity in the bloc to fight the outbreak.


    Source

    © Copyright Original Source




    The WSJ also reported "many people feel let down by the European Union… No other EU countries responded to an Italian plea for masks earlier in March, and German authorities temporarily impeded deliveries of medical supplies to Italy" and that the head of the European think tank Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) said "This is a shocking failure of European solidarity. The impression in Italy, Spain, and Serbia and so on is that the weaker links will be left alone." (note this is behind a paywall)


    Some of this has changed this week, for example Germany has allowed 14 Italians to be transferred to German hospitals, but it's hard to believe that Italians will forget how they were treated for several weeks during the worst part of the pandemic.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •