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Thread: Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

  1. #101
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    the more that recover, the more of a herd protection they will provide, causing the r0 to drop as the virus can't find others to infect.
    I was curious, because herd immunity for measles is known to fail when immunity drops to the low 90%. Turns out that 60% is expected to be the threshold for Covid-19. While that can differ by community/locality, if generalized it means close to 200 million infections in the U.S. which translates to approximately 1M dead. Worldwide the numbers would be 4.5B infected and 45M dead.

    If a vaccine is a year off, trying to push the infection rate down until that vaccine becomes available, putting all possible resources towards the development of that vaccine, boosting testing to identify infections early, continuing social distancing and other mitigation practices, and working to determine and share best practices for treatment seem the most viable paths to minimize deaths.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    I've finally taken the time to examine the ICL report more carefully. Based on that report, yes, suppression will involve "shutdown" for the first few months to break the back of the curve. While it can include breaks from social distancing from time to time, a considerable proportion of the time it takes to achieve a vaccine will be spent under restrictive NPIs.

    The alternative is a million deaths with body counts rising horrifically in the teeth of a national election.

    That won't happen.
    Don't be sure "that won't happen." We have an occupant of the White House that prizes loyalty and fluffing his feathers above anything else. He has publicly confessed to telling his VP not to call any governor that is not adequately appreciative. He can't even suppress his own ego to put his own population first. And the only thing he values above money is tearing down anything associated with Obama, and he is jockey to have control over the stimulus money just allocated by Congress. I suspect this is going to continue to be a mess and the deaths will indeed mount up.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  4. #104
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Don't be sure "that won't happen." We have an occupant of the White House that prizes loyalty and fluffing his feathers above anything else. He has publicly confessed to telling his VP not to call any governor that is not adequately appreciative. He can't even suppress his own ego to put his own population first. And the only thing he values above money is tearing down anything associated with Obama, and he is jockey to have control over the stimulus money just allocated by Congress. I suspect this is going to continue to be a mess and the deaths will indeed mount up.
    Any directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.

    My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.
    Last edited by Juvenal; 03-28-2020 at 12:43 PM.

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    Any directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.

    My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.
    OK - that (i.e., President Pence) made me laugh. However, the problem is this: Trump has a cult-like following known as his "base." They are rabidly devoted to him to the point of ignoring information right in front of their faces to uphold the line from their oracle. We see it here already, with people downplaying social distancing needs. I do not put it past them to ignore social distancing and other mitigation efforts, even in the face of rising deaths, if it means upholding the part line from the oval office. Look at the responses to Trump's comment yesterday about not reaching out to any governor that is not appreciative enough. We've already seen one "well done." But if you look at the infection curve in the U.S., it is steeper than almost any other statistic related to this pandemic. ANd if you look at exactly HOW this virus kills, anyone advocating leaving U.S. citizens out of the equation because they don't like the public statements of their state leadership...is not a leader to be admired. ANd yet...they follow him to the end. He's not just the leader of their party - he has taken on cult status.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    So here's something I don't understand. If you take the total deaths worldwide and divide it into the total infection worldwide, you get a (somewhat naive) mortality rate. If you do that on the historical data, the mortality rate has been climbing relentlessly since February 14. On that day we had 1,526 deaths and 66,895 total infections for a mortality of 2.28%. It climbs almost without drop until today. With 30,249 deaths and 652,079 infections worldwide, the mortality rate stands at 4.64%. Yet all indications are that the true mortality is between 1 and 1.5%. What gives?
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber
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    The funny thing that will happen is that after societies have been financially devastated, there are people who will say the broad quarantines and social separation actually saved us. There will be nothing to prove that and nothing to counter that. Remember that vitamin-C IVs and Chloroquine will continue to help cure those who have gotten the worst effects. People under 50 will not normally be affected by this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    Any directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.

    My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.
    I just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.

  9. #109
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    The funny thing that will happen is that after societies have been financially devastated, there are people who will say the broad quarantines and social separation actually saved us. There will be nothing to prove that and nothing to counter that. Remember that vitamin-C IVs and Chloroquine will continue to help cure those who have gotten the worst effects. People under 50 will not normally be affected by this.
    Ummm...not exactly. Here is the CDC information on recommended treatments. We are still in the very early stages of nailing down treatments. Proof of the impact of social separation can be (to some degree) arrived at statistically by looking at the data and comparing isolating groups to non-isolating groups. It's not easy, because there are numerous variables that have to be factored into those studies. However, with this virus worldwide and infections heading for the millions, the body of data should be there.

    And your last statement is accurate, if somewhat misleading. People under 50 have demonstrated morality rates of 0.2 to 0.4%, which is 2-4 times the flu average. But the flu average is for ALL age groups, so the flu mortality for that age group is likewise presumably lower (though I cannot find the numbers). Odds are the same 10-15 multiplier applies. So MOST people under age 50 won't die, but then again "most" people over 80 won't die either. But "won't be affected" is too broad a term. People infected range from asymptomatic to critical. And remember that "mild" in the phrase "80% will be mild" typically means "will not require hospitalization." That doesn't mean they won't be sick and drawing on healthcare resources. I've never had a flu that required hospitalization - but I have been plenty sick and had to get medicine and go to the doctor's. Now imagine heading for the pharmacy and finding that there is as much NyQuil and Tylenol on the shelves as there currently is toilet paper and flour.

    It is to avoid this scenario that some of us are emphasizing prevention, prevention, prevention - isolation, isolation, isolation. We can survive the economic situation as a community if those who have share with those who do not.
    Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-28-2020 at 01:39 PM.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  10. #110
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    I was curious, because herd immunity for measles is known to fail when immunity drops to the low 90%. Turns out that 60% is expected to be the threshold for Covid-19. While that can differ by community/locality, if generalized it means close to 200 million infections in the U.S. which translates to approximately 1M dead. Worldwide the numbers would be 4.5B infected and 45M dead.
    A little thought reveals R is the product of R0 and the susceptible ratio. The susceptible ratio is the complement of the population that's developed immunity. Herd immunity is achieved when R falls below 1. The immune population required to achieve an R of 1 is then:

    (R0 - 1) / R0

    To achieve an R of 1, for an R0 of 2.5, as estimated above, that's 1.5/2.5, or 60 percent. For comparison, the R0 for measles is estimated at 12 to 18, with associated herd immunity at 11/12 or 17/18 ... 91.7 to 94.4 percent.

    For an R0 of 2.4, as estimated in the March 16 ICL report, that's 1.4/2.4 or 58.3 percent.

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