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Thread: Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

  1. #111
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    A little thought reveals R is the product of R0 and the susceptible ratio. The susceptible ratio is the complement of the population that's developed immunity. Herd immunity is achieved when R falls below 1. The immune population required to achieve an R of 1 is then:

    (R0 - 1) / R0

    To achieve an R of 1, for an R0 of 2.5, as estimated above, that's 1.5/2.5, or 60 percent. For comparison, the R0 for measles is estimated at 12 to 18, with associated herd immunity at 11/12 or 17/18 ... 91.7 to 94.4 percent.

    For an R0 of 2.4, as estimated in the March 16 ICL report, that's 1.4/2.4 or 58.3 percent.
    So I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  2. #112
    tWebber little_monkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.
    Hmmm...You wrote in Post#3:

    The media will keep milking the COVID-19 issue as long as they can use it against Trump.
    Now you're saying criticizing Trump should be off topic when you blatantly defended him!? You can't have your cake and eat it...

  3. #113
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    So I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
    My calculations show the US can get to 58.3 percent by infecting everyone under 45.

    2020-03-28_16-51-38.jpg

    I'm pretty sure that's not an option, but it would minimize the body count.

    Or we can choose long-term suppression, which is what we're going to do, independent of directives from DC.

  4. #114
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    i just don't know what to say.
    Qft.

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    My calculations show the US can get to 58.3 percent by infecting everyone under 45.

    2020-03-28_16-51-38.jpg

    I'm pretty sure that's not an option, but it would minimize the body count.

    Or we can choose long-term suppression, which is what we're going to do, independent of directives from DC.
    Cold...but true. Not sure I'd advocate for it. A classic moral conundrum. Meanwhile, anyone who is still wondering about the severity of things probably hasn't actually seen this graphic.

    Annotation 2020-03-28 172937.png

    It's one of the steepest infection curves out there.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  6. #116
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I just don't know what to say. You are taking this thread way off topic with your mumblings against Trump. I would ask that you and Carpe keep things on the topic of the thread.
    This is your thread, so if discussing Trump is off-topic, I will take those discussions elsewhere. However, I agree that it seems somewhat hypocritical to demand no statements criticizing Trump in a thread where you are defending him. On the other hand, you may have posted a defense only in response to our criticism, which would not be hypocritical. I have not gone back to review the sequence.

    Be that as it may, I will take the discussion elsewhere. As far as I am concerned, Trump's role is central to this issue, and will inevitably surface as I explore various issues related to this pandemic.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Cold...but true. Not sure I'd advocate for it. A classic moral conundrum. Meanwhile, anyone who is still wondering about the severity of things probably hasn't actually seen this graphic.

    Annotation 2020-03-28 172937.png

    It's one of the steepest infection curves out there.
    To see a steeper curve on an exponentially increasingly graph, wait until tomorrow. What's needed here is a log-scale, where decreases in slope indicate decreases in R.

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    So I read that as reinforcing that we need to slow the progress of this thing until we can get to herd immunity with a vaccine. If the only way to get there is for people to get sick...we are going to have a lot of deaths on our hands. Correct?
    I don't think everyone need get sick, so long as there is a vaccine. I think the purpose of containment is to help get us there, give us time to get the vaccine, before the hospitals are overwhelmed and many people unnecessarily die.

  9. #119
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    To see a steeper curve on an exponentially increasingly graph, wait until tomorrow. What's needed here is a log-scale, where decreases in slope indicate decreases in R.
    The problem with a logarithmic scale, for the lay person, is that it blunts the visual urgency provided by the numeric scale. The slope is significantly shallower, so the situation looks less critical.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  10. #120
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimL View Post
    I don't think everyone need get sick, so long as there is a vaccine. I think the purpose of containment is to help get us there, give us time to get the vaccine, before the hospitals are overwhelmed and many people unnecessarily die.
    You're basically agreeing with me...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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