Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

[Juvenal]

Ferguson's statement is an update to the o/p article.

I'm glad you perceived that as roughly being the purpose of his tweet. I didn't want you to miss that point.

Ferguson can't update the ... oh never mind

You can read Ferguson's statement in the o/p article. It's been updated.

[Juvenal]

If "suppression" means "shutdown" for several months, let alone the 18 months needed to achieve a vaccine, it's not possible.

It doesn't mean shutdown.

[Sparko]

I note Cuba sent doctors to Italy to help.

Just something for you "no communist country ever did anything at all good in any way ever" guys to bear in mind.

Are they sending teachers to teach them how to read?

[Sparko]

That's a reasonable question, but it doesn't work, from what I know. Covid-19 isn't just flu-like symptoms, it's people coughing up blood on ventilators filling ICUs. Is that what we were seeing in the fall? And if it's increasing exponentially now, that can only mean it would have been increasing at least as quickly then. Total morbidity doesn't support that.

that makes sense.

[Sparko]

The numbers will increase exponentially until one of two things happens, an appreciable fraction of the 80 percent expected to be infected have been infected or suppression methods are successful in bringing R0 down below 1. That number will be reflected in a figure that's being widely reported, doubling time.

But yeah, ten doublings is a factor of a thousand.

the more that recover, the more of a herd protection they will provide, causing the r0 to drop as the virus can't find others to infect.

[Mountain Man]

I note Cuba sent doctors to Italy to help.

Just something for you "no communist country ever did anything at all good in any way ever" guys to bear in mind.

Oh, good, that will completely offset the decades of evil perpetrated by the Cuban government.

[Sparko]

Oh, good, that will completely offset the decades of evil perpetrated by the Cuban government.

The doctors will probably defect, unless Cuba has their family held hostage.

[Juvenal]

the more that recover, the more of a herd protection they will provide, causing the r0 to drop as the virus can't find others to infect.

I should have been using R, not R0, which is the initial value. But yes, the goal is to reduce R, and herd immunity will eventually play a role. But it's not projected to play a significant role if we choose a long-term suppression strategy. Under suppression, not enough people will be infected.

[Juvenal]

If "suppression" means "shutdown" for several months, let alone the 18 months needed to achieve a vaccine, it's not possible.

I've finally taken the time to examine the ICL report more carefully. Based on that report, yes, suppression will involve "shutdown" for the first few months to break the back of the curve. While it can include breaks from social distancing from time to time, a considerable proportion of the time it takes to achieve a vaccine will be spent under restrictive NPIs.

The alternative is a million deaths with body counts rising horrifically in the teeth of a national election.

That won't happen.

[whag]

A New York Times columnist blames this whole situation on Christians, because supposedly science and religion are antithetical.

https://www.breitbart.com/faith/2020...irus-pandemic/

No, not science and religion. Science and the wing of evangelical Christianity that Trump chose to associate with. The Paula White/Jerry Falwell crowd that thinks evolution and climate change are hoaxes.

[carpedm9587]

http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...eport-March-16

Thanks

[carpedm9587]

the more that recover, the more of a herd protection they will provide, causing the r0 to drop as the virus can't find others to infect.

I was curious, because herd immunity for measles is known to fail when immunity drops to the low 90%. Turns out that 60% is expected to be the threshold for Covid-19. While that can differ by community/locality, if generalized it means close to 200 million infections in the U.S. which translates to approximately 1M dead. Worldwide the numbers would be 4.5B infected and 45M dead.

If a vaccine is a year off, trying to push the infection rate down until that vaccine becomes available, putting all possible resources towards the development of that vaccine, boosting testing to identify infections early, continuing social distancing and other mitigation practices, and working to determine and share best practices for treatment seem the most viable paths to minimize deaths.

[carpedm9587]

I've finally taken the time to examine the ICL report more carefully. Based on that report, yes, suppression will involve "shutdown" for the first few months to break the back of the curve. While it can include breaks from social distancing from time to time, a considerable proportion of the time it takes to achieve a vaccine will be spent under restrictive NPIs.

The alternative is a million deaths with body counts rising horrifically in the teeth of a national election.

That won't happen.

Don't be sure "that won't happen." We have an occupant of the White House that prizes loyalty and fluffing his feathers above anything else. He has publicly confessed to telling his VP not to call any governor that is not adequately appreciative. He can't even suppress his own ego to put his own population first. And the only thing he values above money is tearing down anything associated with Obama, and he is jockey to have control over the stimulus money just allocated by Congress. I suspect this is going to continue to be a mess and the deaths will indeed mount up.

[Juvenal]

Don't be sure "that won't happen." We have an occupant of the White House that prizes loyalty and fluffing his feathers above anything else. He has publicly confessed to telling his VP not to call any governor that is not adequately appreciative. He can't even suppress his own ego to put his own population first. And the only thing he values above money is tearing down anything associated with Obama, and he is jockey to have control over the stimulus money just allocated by Congress. I suspect this is going to continue to be a mess and the deaths will indeed mount up.

Any directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.

My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.

[carpedm9587]

Any directives from the current administration to end social distancing will be quickly forgotten when the body counts start rising. State governors can ignore them entirely. There's some concern over the public policy of kissing the president's fundament or kissing their citizens good-bye, but that's not a real worry so long as Pence isn't listening to him, either.

My greatest source of solace is the knowledge that when it proves necessary, President Pence will do the right thing.

OK - that (i.e., President Pence) made me laugh. However, the problem is this: Trump has a cult-like following known as his "base." They are rabidly devoted to him to the point of ignoring information right in front of their faces to uphold the line from their oracle. We see it here already, with people downplaying social distancing needs. I do not put it past them to ignore social distancing and other mitigation efforts, even in the face of rising deaths, if it means upholding the part line from the oval office. Look at the responses to Trump's comment yesterday about not reaching out to any governor that is not appreciative enough. We've already seen one "well done." But if you look at the infection curve in the U.S., it is steeper than almost any other statistic related to this pandemic. ANd if you look at exactly HOW this virus kills, anyone advocating leaving U.S. citizens out of the equation because they don't like the public statements of their state leadership...is not a leader to be admired. ANd yet...they follow him to the end. He's not just the leader of their party - he has taken on cult status.