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Modeling coronavirus spread, or why are there different numbers of expected deaths?

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  • #16
    Fauci and others are mirroring my predictions of the natural bell curve of the course of the virus I predicted a month ago, and not repeating his bogus conflicting predictions of 'being in control,' the bogus 15 and 45 predictions, and the odd incometant prediction of the possible 100,000 to 240,000 fatalities.

    The problem is that his making the bogus claim like the government measures are the cause of the present bell curve we are now observing, like the false claims of China. Yes, we can decrease the fatalities and number of cases, but the virus does what the virus does, and the over all bell curve of the coronavirus course is a natural curve, just like in China, and previous virus pandemics..

    The late inconsistent response by China and the USA guaranteed a high infection and fatality rate.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-05-2020, 10:09 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
      I predict the total fatalities in the USA to be between 15,000 and at most 30,000. following the natural course of the coronavirus. The total will depend on the success of intervention strategies.
      Current count 11,000 and the daily counts are still rising, so expect a minimum of 22,000 and a likelihood of > 32,000.

      Every one of the last 25 days has been in the top three for US coronavirus fatalities. There is no sign of a peak.
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      • #18
        Er, no, NYC is seeing early signs of peak. And y'all literally don't have incidence.

        And all the existing stats are coming in lower than initial models - no surprise since morphology is not understood.
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        • #19
          Originally posted by Roy View Post
          Current count 11,000 and the daily counts are still rising, so expect a minimum of 22,000 and a likelihood of > 32,000.

          Every one of the last 25 days has been in the top three for US coronavirus fatalities. There is no sign of a peak.
          My original prediction was for a peak in April or early May centering the likely hood on May 1. My prediction still stands.

          My original prediction on fatalities neglected an interesting factor that the Orient may have a "herd immunity" for coronaviruses, because they are more endemic to the Orient. It is well known that there is a history of similar coronaviruses in the animal populations, particularly bats having over 200 varieties of coronaviruses, and it is known in the past that humans and animals including domestic animals have been infected by coronaviruses with similar respiratory symptoms. This potential of "herd immunity is not present in the West. One problem is in the comments of medical professionals in the West is they do not seem to be aware that transmission of coronavirus from humans to animals and back again is common in China.

          I have to wait and see as far as statistics of fatalities and cases in China are confirmed, but I believe that the proportional number of cases and fatalities to population is lower in China and confirmed as lower in the rest of the Orient possibly due to 'herd immunity.' A similar historical pandemic, but more extreme for 'herd immunity' is the Native American pandemic when exposed to European viruses. The Europeans had a 'herd immunity' toward these viruses, and the Native Americans had none. Because of this my prediction may be low, and may be over 30,000, and possibly be between 30,000 to 50,000.

          I do not believe the evidence is in concerning the 'second wave' other than local population with low immunity where the virus has not previously occurred.

          The number of cases will drop before fatalities in the natural bell curve, because those dieing have had the virus infection a week to three weeks earlier.

          Given the very large number of people infected have little or no symptoms, and the very vary late response in some countries, and lack of testing to the pandemic in Western countries, and lack of leadership and open skepticism of many Western leaders to the pandemic like Trump, Republican governors particularly in the South, and Great Britain the Prime Minister who is now gravely ill, has assured a tough road in the West, but nonetheless the virus will follow a natural bell curve, because the virus does what the virus does.
          Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-08-2020, 08:43 AM.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
            the virus will follow a natural bell curve, because the virus does what the virus does.
            Whether there's a single bell-shaped curve or not depends entirely on our actions. Viruses aren't magic, and their spread can definitely be shaped factors we can control.
            "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
              Whether there's a single bell-shaped curve or not depends entirely on our actions. Viruses aren't magic, and their spread can definitely be shaped factors we can control.
              Yes and no. I believe the claims of those that claim the virus was defeated and ended by the Chinese, and will be defeated by the Trump administration are John Wayne political shinanigans. The influence of human efforts has some validity when the government is proactive and aggressive as demonstrated by some countries as I previously posted, but in other countries it is following the natural bell shaped curve of the natural relatively uninterrupted bell shaped course of previous pandemics. The measures being implemented may have some impact as reducing the fatalities and number of cases, but as far as the course of the virus my prediction it stands, and the governments are making outrageous claims as 'being in control' and defeating the virus.

              There is no vaccine at present and it will most likely be late, and the natural course of the virus will be the natural course of the virus as in the 2008-9 and 1918-1920 pandemics.

              As I said before, we need to consider the 'herd immunity' as a factor in the difference between the Orient and the West.

              There is no just only one simple bell cure the data here: demonstrates different bell curves for different countries depending on when the coronavirus was introduced, and how the government was able or willing to respond. There may be more infections in the Southern Hemisphere, and in isolated regions and countries. If your out of the traffic pattern like some counties in North Carolina there are no cases.
              Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-08-2020, 01:28 PM.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                but in other countries it is following the natural bell shaped curve of the natural relatively uninterrupted bell shaped course of previous pandemics. The measures being implemented may have some impact as reducing the fatalities and number of cases
                You've just contradicted yourself. If the measures taken by various authorities are having an effect - and they are - then you don't get a bell shaped curve. You get a curve with a more complicated shape, with the shape determined by when the measures were put in place, the degree of public compliance, etc.

                We've done things that have altered the infectivity of the virus. You admit that yourself. And then you blather about the "natural curve" as if none of those things have happened.


                Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                As I said before, we need to consider the 'herd immunity' as a factor in the difference between the Orient and the West.
                No, we don't. Not without knowing:
                1) whether humans have had enough exposure to those other coronaviruses to generate antibodies.
                2) whether the immune response persists long after the infection.
                3) whether those antibodies cross react with SARS-CoV-2

                We need to consider it in terms of it being a hypothesis worth testing. But we certainly have no evidence it's relevant to anything.
                "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                  You've just contradicted yourself. If the measures taken by various authorities are having an effect - and they are - then you don't get a bell shaped curve. You get a curve with a more complicated shape, with the shape determined by when the measures were put in place, the degree of public compliance, etc.

                  We've done things that have altered the infectivity of the virus. You admit that yourself. And then you blather about the "natural curve" as if none of those things have happened.

                  the curves we see in China and the Western countries are natural virus bell curves.


                  No, we don't. Not without knowing:
                  1) whether humans have had enough exposure to those other coronaviruses to generate antibodies.
                  2) whether the immune response persists long after the infection.
                  3) whether those antibodies cross react with SARS-CoV-2

                  We need to consider it in terms of it being a hypothesis worth testing. But we certainly have no evidence it's relevant to anything.
                  I believe we do have evidence of a history of coronavirus infections in China among humans and animals overtime. and I said needs to considered as a possibility.

                  I made my predictions based on the known natural relationship to the host population and it holds.

                  As a side not I believe all the medical stooges in the Trump administration actually know this, but lie as mouth pieces fro Trump, and have made outrageous predictions and statements concerning the coronavirus. If you watch their eyes it is a dead giveaway.
                  Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-08-2020, 02:33 PM.
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    the curves we see in China and the Western countries are natural virus bell curves.
                    They are not the curves you get from an infection with no preventive measures being taken. If you want to define that as "natural", go ahead, but it's not how most people use the term.

                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    I believe we do have evidence of a history of coronavirus infections in China among humans and animals overtime. and I said needs to considered as a possibility.
                    We have those here, too. Coronaviruses are endemic throughout the globe, a number regularly circulate in humans, and zoonotic transfers have occurred in multiple geographic locations.

                    But sure, go with anecdote if you want to.
                    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                      They are not the curves you get from an infection with no preventive measures being taken. If you want to define that as "natural", go ahead, but it's not how most people use the term.
                      I believe they are considering the nature of the coronavirus. We may disagree ok, but my predictions stands as made close to month ago. The preventive measures only decreased the fatalities and number of cases, but even that claim is hypothetical. South Korea, Japan, and Germany did impact the natural urve by proactive and aggressive measures and China and the USA did not and the curves are decidedly different. I believe the comparison with previous pandemics is valid. We did not have an effective vaccine then and will not have one now unitl maybe at the time the natural bell curve is well in decline.

                      We have those here, too. Coronaviruses are endemic throughout the globe, a number regularly circulate in humans, and zoonotic transfers have occurred in multiple geographic locations.

                      But sure, go with anecdote if you want to.
                      Actually no. Yes coronavirus are world wide, but those endemic in China are not the same as those in the West. In China there is a long history of coronavirus infections in humans and animals with similar symptoms. We do not have this in the West.
                      Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-08-2020, 04:50 PM.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                        You've just contradicted yourself. If the measures taken by various authorities are having an effect - and they are - then you don't get a bell shaped curve. You get a curve with a more complicated shape, with the shape determined by when the measures were put in place, the degree of public compliance, etc.
                        I did not contradict myself. I never, and I mean never said the measures had no effect. I said the measures implemented by South Korea, Japan and Germany, I seriously question the degree of the effectiveness of the measures in China and the USA implemented well after the corona virus had spread in the population. I acknowledged the reduction in the fatality and case rate, but I dot agree with the claims of the governments and authorities that they are the cause of 'defeating and ending the virus.
                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                          Actually no. Yes coronavirus are world wide, but those endemic in China are not the same as those in the West. In China there is a long history of coronavirus infections in humans and animals with similar symptoms. We do not have this in the West.
                          Netherlands: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2918871/
                          Global, cold-like symptoms: https://www.hindawi.com/journals/criid/2018/6796839/
                          Global, cold-like symptoms: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3194943/
                          Hong Kong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_HKU1
                          SARS: China
                          MERS: Middle East
                          SARS 2: China

                          That's it - the entire list. 3 in China, at least 2 from elsewhere (and probably more) - not exactly a major difference. In terms of strains in animals, there's plenty of those in the west, including major livestock pests, so you're simply wrong there. As for your claim of "long history", that's possible, but you've presented no evidence it was.
                          "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                            Netherlands: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2918871/
                            Global, cold-like symptoms: https://www.hindawi.com/journals/criid/2018/6796839/
                            Global, cold-like symptoms: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3194943/
                            Hong Kong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_HKU1
                            SARS: China
                            MERS: Middle East
                            SARS 2: China

                            That's it - the entire list. 3 in China, at least 2 from elsewhere (and probably more) - not exactly a major difference. In terms of strains in animals, there's plenty of those in the west, including major livestock pests, so you're simply wrong there. As for your claim of "long history", that's possible, but you've presented no evidence it was.
                            Will respond more but it is a fact that the long history of the habit that Chinese have of eating the particular animals that harbor the viruses like this variety of the coronavirus and SARS. The Western countries did not have this habit.
                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                              Will respond more but it is a fact that the long history of the habit that Chinese have of eating the particular animals that harbor the viruses like this variety of the coronavirus and SARS. The Western countries did not have this habit.
                              And, as i said, there are also viruses like this one in cows and pork. Plus we don't know where this virus came from yet, in terms of its animal host. So good luck finding anything to support your contention.
                              "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                                And, as i said, there are also viruses like this one in cows and pork. Plus we don't know where this virus came from yet, in terms of its animal host. So good luck finding anything to support your contention.
                                The cows and pigs in China with similar, but not the same virus. I believe genetic testing traced the probable origins as not cows and pigs. I believe there is sufficient evidence that viruses are regional in their character though yes all virus are similar throughout the history of humanity, and regional 'herd immunity' has also existed throughout the known history of humanity, and when other regions were exposed without the herd immunity pandemics resulted. Yes, colds and flu viruses are pretty much endemic world wide, and when they seasonal appear they quickly spread worldwide. Humanity has a degree of herd immunity for flus supported by vaccines unless a particularly virulent variety shows up.

                                I believe you are in part over stating my posts and conclusion. I only said 'herd immunity' was in part 'possibly' responsible for the lower fatality and cases in the Orient. I consider it very likely, but I stick with it being possible.

                                I made my predictions when the Keystone Cops and clowns were all over the place with political agendas. They are slowly coming around to what I predicted.
                                Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-09-2020, 11:49 AM.
                                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                                Frank

                                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                                Comment

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