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Trump gets Seoul population wrong by 28 million

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Starlight View Post
    The US seems to be doing a relatively poor job of containing the spread of it and of quarantining affected areas. It appears to be present in all states now. It seems to be relatively easily transmitted by carriers who don't realise they have it. The number of people who have it grows exponentially (or something vaguely close to that). Why wouldn't it be plausible that it spreads to pretty much all areas of all states? 5 million cases would seem to be low-balling the estimates to me. 50 million cases in the US wouldn't surprise me.
    China also did a lousy job, and actually did little or nothing for more than a month like the USA. Of course, thry underreported the infection rate and fatalities, but even with that their bell curve of virus cases and deaths in a high population nation did not approach these outrageous estimate even if you double the cases and fatalities, and is tapering off naturally.

    Look at the basic math the increase in the number of cases and fatalities is not increasing exponentially. In countries like Italy the rates are tapering off in a natural bell curve path.

    I believe that Fauci's outrageous estimates and Trump's further exaggeration are game plan to do the victory dance for the election in June or July when the coronavirus passes naturally and claim victory like China did, using the unfortunate tragedy for political gain.

    Read and follow this site carefully for the most reliable information: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • #32
      China appears to have made a political choice to cease internal testing so has all but ceased reporting new cases. It's dangerous to use their inaccurate data to make projections about the US.
      "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
      "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
      "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
        China appears to have made a political choice to cease internal testing so has all but ceased reporting new cases. It's dangerous to use their inaccurate data to make projections about the US.
        Welcome aboard. Someone of us have been warning about the folly of including statistics from China for exactly this as well as a myriad of other reasons for about a month now.

        I'm always still in trouble again

        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          Welcome aboard. Someone of us have been warning about the folly of including statistics from China for exactly this as well as a myriad of other reasons for about a month now.
          I agree that it would be a folly to accept Chinas figures and information concerning the coronavirus, but even if you triple the numbers from China you will not come up with anything to compare to the ridiculous figures proposed by Fauci.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
            I agree that it would be a folly to accept Chinas figures and information concerning the coronavirus, but even if you triple the numbers from China you will not come up with anything to compare to the ridiculous figures proposed by Fauci.
            I noticed that nearly all the reports of fatalities seem to focus on Wuhan. While that was the epicenter of the virus, it is merely one city in one of 23 Provinces.

            I'm always still in trouble again

            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              I noticed that nearly all the reports of fatalities seem to focus on Wuhan. While that was the epicenter of the virus, it is merely one city in one of 23 Provinces.
              That is why I proposed the potential of comparing the highest figure of trip;ing the numbers for ALL of China. It is reasonably well known that the virus has spead in China, but not even close to any possible figures proposed by Fauci.

              You would still need 5,000,000 to 10,000,000 plus cases to meet Fauci's estimates.
              Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-01-2020, 07:37 PM.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                Welcome aboard. Someone of us have been warning about the folly of including statistics from China for exactly this as well as a myriad of other reasons for about a month now.
                Even though I trash Fauci and Trump with good reason, April and likely May will be likely be very tragic in terms of the coronavirus. It must be realized that this is a related virus like other pandemic viruses like the 1918-1920 Flu and the 2008 pandemic, and it will also pass naturally and no government can do a victory dance for winning the battle.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                  China also did a lousy job, and actually did little or nothing for more than a month like the USA. Of course, thry underreported the infection rate and fatalities, but even with that their bell curve of virus cases and deaths in a high population nation did not approach these outrageous estimate even if you double the cases and fatalities, and is tapering off naturally.

                  Look at the basic math the increase in the number of cases and fatalities is not increasing exponentially. In countries like Italy the rates are tapering off in a natural bell curve path.

                  I believe that Fauci's outrageous estimates and Trump's further exaggeration are game plan to do the victory dance for the election in June or July when the coronavirus passes naturally and claim victory like China did, using the unfortunate tragedy for political gain.

                  Read and follow this site carefully for the most reliable information: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
                  Did China do a lousy job? Given that nothing was known about the virus when they had to make decisions at the beginning. China started aggressive contact tracing and I think testing slightly, the same strategies as Singapore and Taiwan.

                  Even in the US, even health care professionals disagreed on effective strategies such as social distancing. Once the model of early detection broke down (because of insufficient testing capabilities) there was no conventional wisdom. The major epidemics of SARS, etc. of recent memory did not hit the US like Asian countries and cities. We expected to be able to contain it while dealing with it. Our stockpile of federal emergency personal protection was depleted on 2009 and never replenished over the decade.

                  We got our first case on 20 Jan, on 23 Jan China locked down a province of ten million people. We were surprised by the authoritarian nature of the quarantine, and expected our public health response to be more effective. By the last week in January, enough was known about the novel virus to recognize it potential, everything since is quibbling over details. We in the US were still fixated on wet markets and bats (might want to visit large animal markets and the small animal market barns in the US for some sobering images, we are not much different, other than the wild animals- it is illegal to sell wild animals here. Those barns are difficult to keep clean).

                  Comment

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