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Thread: Trump bump in the polls

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    tWebber
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    Trump bump in the polls

    Interesting analysis of the polls: The pandemic has led to a 'Trump bump' in the polls – but don't assume it will last

    The rise in Donald Trump’s approval ratings – it would be misleading to call it a surge – appears to have shocked his opponents. Critics in the Democratic party and the media have noisily condemned and ridiculed his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, as have some scientists and economists.
    George W Bush saw his ratings go through the roof after the 9/11 attacks. His father, George HW Bush, hit 90%+ approval after the first Gulf war and held a parade to celebrate. By these measures, Trump should actually be doing much better in the polls. In fact, when asked whether the country is headed in the right direction under Trump, Americans say no by 55-38%.
    The fact that Trump’s announcements have often been contradictory, ill-thought-through or plain false, and the fact he has reversed himself with alarming regularity – the latest U-turn being Sunday’s decision to extend social distancing measures until the end of April – does not seem to put off many viewers. What they think they see is a man in charge.

    Yet by casting himself as an all-powerful, all-seeing “wartime president” calling the shots in the biggest national health and economic emergency Americans have experienced, Trump is setting himself up for a fall.
    Trump’s gut instinct to dispute expert medical advice, without any evidence, plays into the anti-establishment, anti-science and Christian fundamentalist sentiments nurtured in Trump’s Republican base. So, too, do his xenophobic attempts to blame the virus on foreigners and foes, principally China’s communist leaders, immigrants and Europe.
    The “Trump bump”, like the so-called post-election “Boris bounce” in Britain, could soon be a bad joke – a grim memorial to incompetence at a time of existential need.
    While I mainly agree with what is said in the the quotes provided, I have a feeling the last one will not prove to be true. I think we are at a point where it is rather unlikely for very many people to change their minds with regard to Trump. As can be seen on tweb and elsewhere there is a certain resistency to facts and a great willingnes to find all sorts of explanations to blame everyone but the worlds most powerful man. I have a feeling he should have stopped by:

    Trump’s gut instinct to dispute expert medical advice, without any evidence, plays into the anti-establishment, anti-science and Christian fundamentalist sentiments nurtured in Trump’s Republican base. So, too, do his xenophobic attempts to blame the virus on foreigners and foes, principally China’s communist leaders, immigrants and Europe.
    I don't believe we will get past the point where there is a very huge audience for ideas like that. At least I don't believe the majority of the followers will change their minds. Many of them appear to be very much locked up in a "safe" universe in which their leader cannot fail.
    "That is the little thing, the small thing, which Trump demands of his followers: To call hot cold. To call black white. To call wrong right." Michael Gerson

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    tWebber
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    Trump got a bump, Cuomo has a surge as he becomes the voice of sense, competent leadership.

    If only his war on covid 19 was as vigorous as his war on the media!

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplicio View Post
    If only his war on covid 19 was as vigorous as his war on the media!
    It is easier to fool people in a war in which you are fighting with words than it is to fight a virus that does what it does even if you claim you have got it under control and use all the words you like.

    Initially Trump's war on covid 19 was of exactly the same form as his war on the media. He obviously lost and seems to be looking for and accepting other methods while still trying to fool the media and everyone else into thinking he did a great job.
    "That is the little thing, the small thing, which Trump demands of his followers: To call hot cold. To call black white. To call wrong right." Michael Gerson

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    tWebber seer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charles View Post
    Interesting analysis of the polls. The pandemic has led to a 'Trump bump' in the polls – but don't assume it will last...

    The only poll that matters is the one in November. It is hard to see how Biden could beat him, Biden is irrelevant right now, there will not be a Democrat convention, so no boost from that. And that irrelevancy will probably last through the summer. If things turn around in the fall (at least start to turn around) Trump will get the credit, if things are still bad people may not want to change leaders in the middle of the crisis. Never mind the fact that Biden has nothing new to bring to the table besides his senility.
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

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  5. Amen DesertBerean amen'd this post.
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    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seer View Post
    The only poll that matters is the one in November.
    Unless you don't like the outcome then you start screaming "NOT MY PRESIDENT!" and spend 3 years doing anything you can to overturn the election.

    I'm always still in trouble again

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  7. Amen Bill the Cat, RumTumTugger, DesertBerean amen'd this post.
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    Quote Originally Posted by seer View Post
    [...] If things turn around in the fall (at least start to turn around) Trump will get the credit, if things are still bad people may not want to change leaders in the middle of the crisis. [...]
    Sorry for cutting but I happen to find this part particularily interesting. Not easy to fail when you are given such friendly conditions, I would say. Whether he makes it or not, he is "the best". Where did I hear that before?
    "That is the little thing, the small thing, which Trump demands of his followers: To call hot cold. To call black white. To call wrong right." Michael Gerson

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    God, family, chicken! Bill the Cat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplicio View Post
    Trump got a bump, Cuomo has a surge as he becomes the voice of sense, competent leadership.

    If only his war on covid 19 was as vigorous as his war on the media!
    If only the media was as impartial as COVID-19...


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  10. Amen Cow Poke, RumTumTugger, DesertBerean amen'd this post.
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    Must...have...caffeine One Bad Pig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charles View Post
    Sorry for cutting but I happen to find this part particularily interesting. Not easy to fail when you are given such friendly conditions, I would say. Whether he makes it or not, he is "the best". Where did I hear that before?
    Friendly conditions?
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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seer View Post
    The only poll that matters is the one in November. It is hard to see how Biden could beat him, Biden is irrelevant right now, there will not be a Democrat convention, so no boost from that. And that irrelevancy will probably last through the summer. If things turn around in the fall (at least start to turn around) Trump will get the credit, if things are still bad people may not want to change leaders in the middle of the crisis. Never mind the fact that Biden has nothing new to bring to the table besides his senility.
    Biden won't be the nominee. Either he'll voluntarily concede, or he'll be declared mentally unfit and forced out of the race. Safe bet right now is that Cuomo will be drafted by the Democrats as the "reluctant" nominee. That's why he's doing so much grandstanding right now.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    If only the media was as impartial as COVID-19...
    It is, which is why you hate it so much. Persecution complex!

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