Shoot the virus?

[seanD]

A rise in crime in St. Louis (it's pretty much looting, let's get real). This is nothing, this will become a nationwide epidemic.

[Sparko]

According to the Wikipedia timeline, 24 days.6 days before the Chinese whistle-blower and Taiwan authorities suspected, 4 more before Hong Kong authorities suspected, 16 more before it was officially confirmed by China. 26 in total, but it really depends on what you take as the boundary points. It was widely suspected as transmissible between humans well before the official announcement.

In China, it was known, or strongly suspected, to be infections on Dec 30th. It was officially announced to be infectious on 20th Jan, but there were suspicions and warnings much earlier.

No I was talking how long did it take us to figure out how contagious it was once it got here? We figured it out in a couple of days if not instantly.

The idea that China didn't know it was contagious for two months is ridiculous. They would have known within the first few cases. they LIED. It wasn't a case of not knowing.

[Watermelon]

This is not going to end well.

It never does for the bad guys.

[Roy]

No I was talking how long did it take us to figure out how contagious it was once it got here? We figured it out in a couple of days if not instantly.

Sparko, the first confirmed case in the US was announced on 21st Jan - the day after Chinese authorities confirmed it was contagious. Not much figuring out required for that.

The idea that China didn't know it was contagious for two months is ridiculous.

What two month period would that be, Sparko? Are you adopting the lilpix month counting technique whereby 24 days becomes two months?

[Sparko]

Sparko, the first confirmed case in the US was announced on 21st Jan - the day after Chinese authorities confirmed it was contagious. Not much figuring out required for that.
What two month period would that be, Sparko? Are you adopting the lilpix month counting technique whereby 24 days becomes two months?

The first cases in China were in December (at least that's their claim, it was probably in November). That's two months. They knew it was contagious before Jan 20th.

[simplicio]

The first cases in China were in December (at least that's their claim, it was probably in November). That's two months. They knew it was contagious before Jan 20th.

In March, posters in the US, on Tweb, were talking about wet markets, the location of the outbreak was an animal market. The man who had it on 1 Dec did not spread it to his family. Those facts suggest animals play a role.

Yes, they knew it was contagious, but they did not know how it was contagious, the transmission dynamics. An early report (in Dec) had it incorrectly as SARS, so whether it was easily transmittable between humans is only apparent in hindsight. At that time there were about a hundred cases. It was not apparent that it had pandemic potential, previous zoonotic corona virus did not have the pandemic potential.

That is one of the problems with zoonotic diseases, determining the role animals play in the disease transmission, .

The virus was whole new species, a new disease. It was identified by a new technology, next generation sequencing, before it was isolated.That is a first. I do not know enough about the technology to understand how or if this affected the acceptance of the results.

The number of early cases in China is estimated retrospectively. Which is precisely what we have in the US (Houston had the vast majority of its cases in ICU last week), only handle on the epidemic is through hindsight.

[Sparko]

In March, posters in the US, on Tweb, were talking about wet markets, the location of the outbreak was an animal market. The man who had it on 1 Dec did not spread it to his family. Those facts suggest animals play a role.

Yes, they knew it was contagious, but they did not know how it was contagious, the transmission dynamics. An early report (in Dec) had it incorrectly as SARS, so whether it was easily transmittable between humans is only apparent in hindsight. At that time there were about a hundred cases. It was not apparent that it had pandemic potential, previous zoonotic corona virus did not have the pandemic potential.

That is one of the problems with zoonotic diseases, determining the role animals play in the disease transmission, .

The virus was whole new species, a new disease. It was identified by a new technology, next generation sequencing, before it was isolated.That is a first. I do not know enough about the technology to understand how or if this affected the acceptance of the results.

The number of early cases in China is estimated retrospectively. Which is precisely what we have in the US (Houston had the vast majority of its cases in ICU last week), only handle on the epidemic is through hindsight.

It would have been obvious in Wuhan by the sheer number of people who were sick within a week. A hundred cases all transmitted from a bat? lol.

The Chinese LIED. Why are you trying so hard to defend them? It is obvious they lied. They even disappeared anyone who tried to warn the world. Then they actually fought to keep air travel out of China open. It's pretty obvious they knew what was going on. The only question is did they lie to save face, or to take advantage of the situation to infect the world, knowing it would crash the economy as people panicked. I am leaning toward saving face, but once they saw the effect they took full advantage of it. They tried to blame the USA, they continued to lie about the numbers infected. And I heard they have been buying up stock at a discount once the market dropped.

[simplicio]

It would have been obvious in Wuhan by the sheer number of people who were sick within a week. A hundred cases all transmitted from a bat? lol.

The Chinese LIED. Why are you trying so hard to defend them? It is obvious they lied. They even disappeared anyone who tried to warn the world. Then they actually fought to keep air travel out of China open. It's pretty obvious they knew what was going on. The only question is did they lie to save face, or to take advantage of the situation to infect the world, knowing it would crash the economy as people panicked. I am leaning toward saving face, but once they saw the effect they took full advantage of it. They tried to blame the USA, they continued to lie about the numbers infected. And I heard they have been buying up stock at a discount once the market dropped.

I am not defending them, nor do receive money from them (as Pixie and Rogue trollishly claimed). But the Chinese had to face a new virus and make all the same decisions we had to make except without any previous outbreaks of the disease to study. It is not obvious that they knew what was going on until the third week of January, when the numbers started to climb. Many health professionals still suspected animals in the transmission of the disease at the second week of January.

The Chinese went through SARS and were criticized by many for their secrecy. This time around the Chinese were less secretive than before, but note the Trump administration attempt to channel information (the attempt failed because we are a more open system.

Many are making a big deal of the Chinese lies. But did it make any difference in how the pandemic was handled? The WHO declared a global emergency, and that made no difference. When it was declared a pandemic, politicians were encouraging people to go out. When I raised the question on how precious was human life compared to economic policies it was called trolling.

How forthright has the US been? When the US makes the same mistakes and misinformation that the Chinese did, the posters who condemn China make excuses for the US misteps.

This is a real time case study on how people, including scientists, adapt to changing information.

[Sparko]

I am not defending them, nor do receive money from them (as Pixie and Rogue trollishly claimed). But the Chinese had to face a new virus and make all the same decisions we had to make except without any previous outbreaks of the disease to study. It is not obvious that they knew what was going on until the third week of January, when the numbers started to climb. Many health professionals still suspected animals in the transmission of the disease at the second week of January.

The Chinese went through SARS and were criticized by many for their secrecy. This time around the Chinese were less secretive than before, but note the Trump administration attempt to channel information (the attempt failed because we are a more open system.

Many are making a big deal of the Chinese lies. But did it make any difference in how the pandemic was handled? The WHO declared a global emergency, and that made no difference. When it was declared a pandemic, politicians were encouraging people to go out. When I raised the question on how precious was human life compared to economic policies it was called trolling.

How forthright has the US been? When the US makes the same mistakes and misinformation that the Chinese did, the posters who condemn China make excuses for the US misteps.

This is a real time case study on how people, including scientists, adapt to changing information.

I love how you ignore facts and just make up your own. You are so precious.

[simplicio]

I love how you ignore facts and just make up your own. You are so precious.

So which facts am I making up and which facts am I ignoring?

More to the point: Did the Chinese lies make any difference in the US response?

Remember, the WHO declared the epidemic a global emergency on 30 January. Given the responses of the US and other countries, I think the Chinese lies are irrelevant and the argument is offered to shift blame.

[Sparko]

So which facts am I making up and which facts am I ignoring?

More to the point: Did the Chinese lies make any difference in the US response?

Yes.

[Roy]

What two month period would that be, Sparko? Are you adopting the lilpix month counting technique whereby 24 days becomes two months?

The first cases in China were in December (at least that's their claim, it was probably in November). That's two months. They knew it was contagious before Jan 20th.

So you are adopting the lilpix method of counting months.

From some unspecified date in December until 20th January is not two months.

Also, I said they knew it was contagious on Dec 30th. So I'll aska again, Sparko:

The idea that China didn't know it was contagious for two months is ridiculous.

What two month period would that be, Sparko? Be specific.

[Sparko]

So you are adopting the lilpix method of counting months.

From some unspecified date in December until 20th January is not two months.

Also, I said they knew it was contagious on Dec 30th. So I'll aska again, Sparko:
What two month period would that be, Sparko? Be specific.

December is one month. January is two months. I am sorry your argument is so weak that you need to resort to nitpicking again. sigh.

Also as I said, it has been reported that China most likely knew about this since November.

[Roy]

December is one month. January is two months. I am sorry your argument is so weak that you need to resort to nitpicking again. sigh.

If your argument is so weak that you need to pretend that Jan 1st to Jan 20th is a whole month, you should scrap it and start again.

Though I won't be too hard on you since I know you are trying to get others in your cohort to stop downplaying the problem.

Also as I said, it has been reported that China most likely knew about this since November.

It's also been reported that China knew about this in October and MM for one said they should have said something in September. But the credible reports, as opposed to the lunatic fringe, indicate that the first identified case was mid-November, and they could not have known how infectious it was until December. That's also consistent with the rate of spread seen in other countries and states where the numbers available are not being suppressed.

[simplicio]

If your argument is so weak that you need to pretend that Jan 1st to Jan 20th is a whole month, you should scrap it and start again.

Though I won't be too hard on you since I know you are trying to get others in your cohort to stop downplaying the problem.

It's also been reported that China knew about this in October and MM for one said they should have said something in September. But the credible reports, as opposed to the lunatic fringe, indicate that the first identified case was mid-November, and they could not have known how infectious it was until December. That's also consistent with the rate of spread seen in other countries and states where the numbers available are not being suppressed.

The social media leaks which got the Chinese posters in trouble, even arrested, suggest that they did not know exactly what they were dealing with., other than it was a new communicable disease. And those reports came at the end of Dec and early January.

On 26 December an elderly couple went to a clinic and an unusual form of pneumonia was found from a CT scan. Not all patients with cough and pneumonia get a scan. I think most all the cases were still connected to the market by New Years Eve. So any expectations of knowing about the contagious nature of the disease is out to lunch. American doctors would likely have been in the exact same boat as Chinese doctors. In fact they were and still are.