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COVID Cases Should Be Coming To An End

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  • COVID Cases Should Be Coming To An End

    COVID cases should be coming to an end.

    This is my thought ...

    People have mostly been in quarantine for two weeks. No new people should be catching COVID because of this quarantine. The people that already been exposed and are susceptible to it should already be in the hospitals and facing death. There is no reason that people would now suddenly become ill to it in their own houses. Any increase in numbers should only happen where a variety of people are meeting in close proximity in recent weeks. Is this what the projected hospitalizations are anticipating? Or how is this increase of hospitalizations supposed to happen?

  • #2
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
    COVID cases should be coming to an end.

    This is my thought ...

    People have mostly been in quarantine for two weeks. No new people should be catching COVID because of this quarantine.
    Only one person is needed to seed an exponential spread. Think of it like the flu, how many old people are you willing to trade off for normal life?
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
      Only one person is needed to seed an exponential spread. Think of it like the flu, how many old people are you willing to trade off for normal life?
      Again I note that social distancing is being practiced. This stops any exponential spread. So my original questions still remain.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
        Again I note that social distancing is being practiced. This stops any exponential spread. So my original questions still remain.
        What happens after the cases seem to 'end'? Return to normal life? After you return, like demi said, it takes one person to start an exponential spread.
        Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

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        • #5
          Anyway, the ''''''quarantine''''''' in the US has been half-hearted. Spread is slowed down but nowhere close to over.
          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
            COVID cases should be coming to an end.

            This is my thought ...

            People have mostly been in quarantine for two weeks. No new people should be catching COVID because of this quarantine. The people that already been exposed and are susceptible to it should already be in the hospitals and facing death. There is no reason that people would now suddenly become ill to it in their own houses. Any increase in numbers should only happen where a variety of people are meeting in close proximity in recent weeks. Is this what the projected hospitalizations are anticipating? Or how is this increase of hospitalizations supposed to happen?
            The situation is very convenient politically and governmentally. Government "officials" can use it to further enforce draconian control, something it loves to do and does naturally, and politics can use it for its benefit (insane spending sprees, insane policies that couldn't be passed otherwise, etc.), something it loves to do and does naturally. Maybe this all will end soon, but does people being inconvenienced outweigh those political benefits?

            I don't know.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by seanD View Post
              The situation is very convenient politically and governmentally. Government "officials" can use it to further enforce draconian control, something it loves to do and does naturally, and politics can use it for its benefit (insane spending sprees, insane policies that couldn't be passed otherwise, etc.), something it loves to do and does naturally. Maybe this all will end soon, but does people being inconvenienced outweigh those political benefits?

              I don't know.
              You don't know about what?

              People are dying and will die because of the virus. There is nothing convenient about that fact. Or are you just a whag?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                Spread is slowed down but nowhere close to over.
                Well, maybe it could be 2 more weeks, if you assume like demi that actual cases are 10-100 times the reported.

                Quarantine slows the spread, which means it takes longer for the population to gain immunity. 'Flattening the curve' means extending the period of crisis.
                Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-02-2020, 03:00 PM.
                Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                  Anyway, the ''''''quarantine''''''' in the US has been half-hearted. Spread is slowed down but nowhere close to over.
                  The main method of spreading has stopped. The hospitalizations due to COVID then must be coming to and end. There is no basis for hospitalization rates to increase after this much self-quarantine actions by the people.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                    People have mostly been in quarantine for two weeks. No new people should be catching COVID because of this quarantine.
                    Well, I'm afraid it doesn't work that way because "quarantine", in this case, does not mean 100% lockdown. I can still visit the grocery store without restriction, for example. There are also potentially thousands of people walking around with the China flu who don't know it because they have no or mild symptoms. Also, people aren't very good at protecting themselves. Saw a woman at the store yesterday wearing a loose fitting mask that didn't cover her nose (and this wasn't the first person I've seen doing this). Saw another guy with an ordinary scarf wrapped around his face. No doubt they went home thinking they had taken good precautions against getting sick. I wonder if they even bothered to wash their hands?
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                      The main method of spreading has stopped.
                      People are still going outside to work, buy groceries, young people still partying, etc.
                      Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                        People are still going outside to work, buy groceries, young people still partying, etc.
                        So do the statistics show that these people are getting super sick or are passing it on to people are getting hospitalized?

                        We are doing all this without evidence. The Ferguson calculations have been private so far. No other groups have had the program code to doublecheck what his code calculates.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                          So do the statistics show that these people are getting super sick or are passing it on to people are getting hospitalized?
                          Who knows, demi hasn't heard that the US is doing a lot of contact tracing.

                          Are people like you getting cabin fever after two weeks and going to break quarantine?
                          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                            So do the statistics show that these people are getting super sick or are passing it on to people are getting hospitalized?

                            We are doing all this without evidence. The Ferguson calculations have been private so far. No other groups have had the program code to doublecheck what his code calculates.
                            There is a plethora of models now on this, Mike. I do not know what the ferguson model is, but there are many studies which are not behind the paywall of a journal, many of them are working papers, posting the results as they come in, which is the ultimate in transparency.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                              People are still going outside to work, buy groceries, young people still partying, etc.
                              That's the thing too. Life can sort of continue to go on this way (albeit serious economic consequences in the near future, which will give government even more justification to clamp down on civil liberties) giving government incentive to keep this ongoing indefinitely. I highly doubt things will ever get back to "normal" anytime soon.

                              Comment

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