The numbers on the epidemic do not work. There are too few people dying (at least in most states) for this to be designated as an epidemic across the country.
I just don't see justification of the fear and quarantines. Am I missing some critical concept that artificially keeps the deaths down?
First it helps to note the obvious. The number of cases is nonsense – it has not methodology to get a representative sampling. The only tiny bit of help is that when the number of positives increases, the death rate decreases. I fear that the media will still hype on the number of positive test results. This merely means that more people were tested. The true benefit we may find is that there are enough positive cases to show that the majority of people are not affected -- that we can go back to normal.
There are general problems with the number of positive tests:
1. based on a PCR test which just says this person seems to have COVID-19 but could positive for non-COVID-19 people
2. based on a PCR test which is inaccurate on positive and negative results
3. is being geared toward people who are hospitalized rather than the broader community
4. is often supplemented by the number of untested patients suspected of having COVID-19
The quarantine
1. has gone on for 2 or 3 weeks and should have led to infected people being in the hospital by now
2. has been applied in all the States when only a few have had possible outbreak – New York and New Jersey. Is is the two states that drive the fears for all the other states? Someone mentioned that the main national new stations are in New York and always see the whole world suffering when it suffers.
California and and many states (and counties in some worse states) have had super low casualties ascribed to
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID.../nCOV2019.aspx
The up-to-date numbers are on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c..._United_States
A look at three states show low percentages on across the population. New York (and New Jersey) may have something worse going on -- beyond COVID-19
-+ Louisiana 4.66 Million – 582 deaths attributed to COVID-19
0.012 percent of population – deaths attributed to COVID-19
+- New York 8.623 Million – 4578 deaths attributed to COVID-19
0.053 percent of population – deaths attributed to COVID-19
+- California – 39.56 – 319 deaths attributed to COVID-19
0.0008 percent of population
The numbers in all states, except possibly New York and New Jersey, seem to indicate that we should go back to normal life -- or maybe just keep some basic precautions
Californians may have been exposed early on and have hardly had any susceptibility to severe cases. California has a good number of foreign visitors and would have seen the effects early on.
I just don't see justification of the fear and quarantines. Am I missing some critical concept that artificially keeps the deaths down?
First it helps to note the obvious. The number of cases is nonsense – it has not methodology to get a representative sampling. The only tiny bit of help is that when the number of positives increases, the death rate decreases. I fear that the media will still hype on the number of positive test results. This merely means that more people were tested. The true benefit we may find is that there are enough positive cases to show that the majority of people are not affected -- that we can go back to normal.
There are general problems with the number of positive tests:
1. based on a PCR test which just says this person seems to have COVID-19 but could positive for non-COVID-19 people
2. based on a PCR test which is inaccurate on positive and negative results
3. is being geared toward people who are hospitalized rather than the broader community
4. is often supplemented by the number of untested patients suspected of having COVID-19
The quarantine
1. has gone on for 2 or 3 weeks and should have led to infected people being in the hospital by now
2. has been applied in all the States when only a few have had possible outbreak – New York and New Jersey. Is is the two states that drive the fears for all the other states? Someone mentioned that the main national new stations are in New York and always see the whole world suffering when it suffers.
California and and many states (and counties in some worse states) have had super low casualties ascribed to
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID.../nCOV2019.aspx
The up-to-date numbers are on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c..._United_States
A look at three states show low percentages on across the population. New York (and New Jersey) may have something worse going on -- beyond COVID-19
-+ Louisiana 4.66 Million – 582 deaths attributed to COVID-19
0.012 percent of population – deaths attributed to COVID-19
+- New York 8.623 Million – 4578 deaths attributed to COVID-19
0.053 percent of population – deaths attributed to COVID-19
+- California – 39.56 – 319 deaths attributed to COVID-19
0.0008 percent of population
The numbers in all states, except possibly New York and New Jersey, seem to indicate that we should go back to normal life -- or maybe just keep some basic precautions
Californians may have been exposed early on and have hardly had any susceptibility to severe cases. California has a good number of foreign visitors and would have seen the effects early on.
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