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The Numbers Dont Work

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  • #91
    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Mike - our hospitals are brimming over with cases that align with what is currently blanketing the world and originated in Wuhan province. The "well, we can't know for sure" argument falls pretty flat when we are piling bodies in refrigerator trucks and discussing digging temporary graves in city parks to store the bodies until they can be properly buried. Yes, the tests are not perfect and not foolproof. We are weeks into this pandemic and the science has not yet caught up to the situation. So everyone is doing the best they can with what they have to work with. But suggesting that the lack of "exact numbers" is an argument for reversing the social isolation and other mitigation steps that have been shown in country after country and location after location to "flatten the curve" is, IMO, irresponsible and more than a little blind.
    I'm sorry. You came in late. You missed that the reason for alternative methods of handling corpses is not due to the numbers of deaths but is related to the precautions if the corpses might lend to spread of the disease.

    You sound too much in a panic. Take some deep breaths. Go out for a walk.

    You don't make sense on your comment about the exact numbers. Any of those numbers are nonsensical, having no scientific value -- not even carefully determined.

    The hospitals in many or most places are not filled up. So everything you are telling me so far is just hype. You are irresponsible in your disregard of facts -- and this will hurt more people than you can imagine.

    You can listen some to the latest projectveritas.com reports on some related aspects. Or, are you just listening to stuff that increases your irrational fears?
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-08-2020, 05:09 PM.

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      Reasonable precautions. My son is an "essential worker" because he works in the local grocery store's meat room. He's covered in aprons, a mask, gloves, and they have a strict protocol. Anything going into the meat room has to be sanitized before it is unwrapped/opened. Hands have to be washed and fresh gloves put on before opening, cutting, and packaging any meat. One person is the designated person to refill store cases and it is done once and that person cannot go back into the meat room. When he comes home, he strips at the front door, puts his clothes in a plastic bucket, and heads right for the shower without touching anything. Clothes head for a hot wash immediately.

      Our new reality. But at least he's showering every day now!
      Also, it is unclear to me what was supposed to be humorous about my initial post.
      "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
        I'm sorry. You came in late. You missed that the reason for alternative methods of handling corpses is not due to the numbers of deaths but is related to the precautions if the corpses might lend to spread of the disease.
        While I am sure that is part of the reason, it is also true that the deaths are overwhelming funeral homes, especially in densely populated areas.

        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
        You sound too much in a panic. Take some deep breaths. Go out for a walk.

        You don't make sense on your comment about the exact numbers. Any of those numbers are nonsensical, having no scientific value -- not even carefully determined.

        The hospitals in many or most places are not filled up. So everything you are telling me so far is just hype. You are irresponsible in your disregard of facts -- and this will hurt more people than you can imagine.
        And I find you irresponsible for not paying attention to what has happened in pretty much every place that has NOT put strong mitigation efforts in place. Encouraging people to go back to the norm in the face of everything both the medical experts and the basic numbers are telling us is the height of irresponsibility, IMO.

        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
        You can listen some to the latest projectveritas.com reports on some related aspects. Or, are you just listening to stuff that increases your irrational fears?
        OK - that explains pretty much everything. If you are getting your information from a source KNOWN to intentionally edit/skew information to paint a desired message, there is little/nothing I or anyone can say that will convince. I think I'll continue to use the CDC, WHO, local medical experts (including friends at the local hospital), and resources that are actively working to help our nation survive, and leave the conspiracy theories to you and "Project Veritas," which is one of the most ironically named organizations I've ever encountered, second only to "ZeroChaos."

        I'll leave this to you.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
          Also, it is unclear to me what was supposed to be humorous about my initial post.
          I thought you were engaging in a bit of a bon mot with your "no social life" comment. My apologies if I misinterpreted that.
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            While I am sure that is part of the reason, it is also true that the deaths are overwhelming funeral homes, especially in densely populated areas.



            And I find you irresponsible for not paying attention to what has happened in pretty much every place that has NOT put strong mitigation efforts in place. Encouraging people to go back to the norm in the face of everything both the medical experts and the basic numbers are telling us is the height of irresponsibility, IMO.



            OK - that explains pretty much everything. If you are getting your information from a source KNOWN to intentionally edit/skew information to paint a desired message, there is little/nothing I or anyone can say that will convince. I think I'll continue to use the CDC, WHO, local medical experts (including friends at the local hospital), and resources that are actively working to help our nation survive, and leave the conspiracy theories to you and "Project Veritas," which is one of the most ironically named organizations I've ever encountered, second only to "ZeroChaos."

            I'll leave this to you.
            You have proven that you only want to hear about fear and isolation. You won't hear the broadfacts. The reason that there is ProjectVeritas is because the mainstream media fails to do any research or investigation these days. I'm sorry for that you have narrow vision to see the world through.

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
              you had said


              That goal has been done to excessive levels. My point was that we can start opening up the economy again in many places. We can do it carefully so that social distancing is maintained.

              We step up production of chloroquine for curing people of the sickness -- it seems mainly used for patients that were very ill and could have died. This is likely the cure that we need. We don't know that this would be a reocurring virus. So we get in speculation that maybe will be addressed in years to come. The idea of a vaccine is speculative too -- we wouldn't know for years if this vaccine actually kept people from getting sick.
              We can't 'open things up' until we have a means of keeping exponential growth and uncontrolled spread from recurring. That will be a while from now.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • #97
                The conspiracy types might be onto something, Covid 19 was predicted and designed back in the 1965 film sound of music. It never made sense until now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMBh-eo3tvE

                Hollywood is behind it.

                Comment


                • #98
                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  from
                  https://www.indexmundi.com/blog/inde...day-in-the-us/

                  According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, approximately 7,452 people die every day in the United States. In other words, a person dies in the US approximately every 12 seconds. You can see a live clock keeping track of how many people have died today at https://www.indexmundi.com/clocks/in.../united-states. You can compare the number of deaths in the US to the number of deaths in other countries at https://www.indexmundi.com/clocks/indicator/deaths.
                  Interesting. I s'pose that's good news and bad news - good news in that the US population is increasing so fast that it's outstripping the death rate; bad news in that it means covid-19 has increased the death rate by 25%.
                  Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                  MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                  MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                  seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                    We can't 'open things up' until we have a means of keeping exponential growth and uncontrolled spread from recurring. That will be a while from now.
                    Fortunately, while the "number/day" continues to increase for each measured category (infections, deaths, recoveries, active cases), the percentages are dropping for all except "active cases." Yesterday, the day-to-day increase in active cases was 60% of the day-to-day increases in new cases worldwide, but that percentage is actually dropping, which is not great. I have not tracked this for U.S. numbers.

                    ETA: Unfortunately, the death count may be artificially low, especially in NYC. Apparently, 25 people per day are found dead at home in NYC. Yesterday, 256 people were found and the number has been above 100 per day for the last two weeks. In that period 2,192 people were found dead at home. In the same period last yes, 453 people were found, a 384% increase. Clearly the virus is involved, but exact counts may never be possible because it is doubtful that NYC will use precious test kits to test the dead.
                    Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-09-2020, 07:27 AM.
                    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                      We can't 'open things up' until we have a means of keeping exponential growth and uncontrolled spread from recurring. That will be a while from now.


                      No one has explained how the virus can be so dominant in California but not be causing enough people to get sick or die.

                      We don't have to address the problems of testing -- and why one should think how tests for a mass scale could be available so quickly for the COVID-19 strain. Have people examined the type of testing available and the accuracy is? -- considering similar issues that might cause false positives? Are people considering that there could be a different virus or disease in New York?

                      I don't have to go into conspiracy world to have important questions. We already have seen instances of how the media lies (in that other thread) concerning Trumpa and the viral news.

                      The numbers still don't work.

                      Comment


                      • I should throw in some observations that will really make the leftists reject what I am saying.

                        Rush Limbaugh just has observed that the 2million number was wrong and the London College changes the numbers and still are considered the ultimate source for projections. "We shut down a 2 trillion dollar economy because of it."


                        He noted the numbers for California were totally against the theories and projections.

                        Fauci has lowered the expected numbers in the US to 60,000 -- which is just a severe flu season level of deaths.

                        The answer, per Rush, is the change in predictions will be justified based on the social distancing. (This is a bad excuse since the London College should have had that in their original numbers, as part of an alternative estimate.)

                        The numbers just don't work and never have in California.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                          The answer, per Rush, is the change in predictions will be justified based on the social distancing.
                          And the magic rock in my pocket continues to keep the tigers at bay...
                          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                          Than a fool in the eyes of God


                          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                            I should throw in some observations that will really make the leftists reject what I am saying.

                            Rush Limbaugh just has observed that the 2million number was wrong and the London College changes the numbers and still are considered the ultimate source for projections. "We shut down a 2 trillion dollar economy because of it."


                            He noted the numbers for California were totally against the theories and projections.

                            Fauci has lowered the expected numbers in the US to 60,000 -- which is just a severe flu season level of deaths.

                            The answer, per Rush, is the change in predictions will be justified based on the social distancing. (This is a bad excuse since the London College should have had that in their original numbers, as part of an alternative estimate.)

                            The numbers just don't work and never have in California.
                            ...which we achieved by nationwide social distancing and other mitigation efforts. What is happening here is pretty straightforward:

                            Science: If we don't do something, we will have as many as 2 million deaths
                            Response: We do a lot - social distancing, shutting down communal collection areas, etc.
                            Result: Number of projected deaths is adjusted downwards radically
                            From the right: See... it wasn't so bad after all - no worse than a bad flu season... magic rocks and tigers.
                            Response from the rest of us:
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • The answer, per Rush, is the change in predictions will be justified based on the social distancing. (This is a bad excuse since the London College should have had that in their original numbers, as part of an alternative estimate.)
                              Reminder that the possibility of flu-like fatality rates were anticipated by Fauci and others, but as demi has pointed out so many times the point of the yuge scary numbers is to frighten people.
                              Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                                I should throw in some observations that will really make the leftists reject what I am saying.

                                Rush Limbaugh just has observed that the 2million number was wrong and the London College changes the numbers and still are considered the ultimate source for projections. "We shut down a 2 trillion dollar economy because of it."


                                He noted the numbers for California were totally against the theories and projections.

                                Fauci has lowered the expected numbers in the US to 60,000 -- which is just a severe flu season level of deaths.
                                But not because of a flu level response. Do you not understand that those numercial projections have been lowered only because of the observed effect of the shelter in place actions across the country on the growth in the number of infections? And that removing those restrictions will only result in a return to the previous expected mortality?
                                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                                Comment

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