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Thread: The Numbers Dont Work

  1. #121
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Part of assessing alternative viewpoints is to sort the serious and plausible from the frothing at the mouth crazy. You seem to embrace the latter fervently.
    Great. What we need then is to have your research or investigation to bring the scientific debate to the surface in a sane way? Is it worth it to use some of your time toward research to make sure that we have the best of the debate brought forward?

    Science does not rely on what the new media says. Good science depends on the contributions of insight and investigation from people dedicated to the truth.

    I know how fun we have when picking on people or hating their views. This era deserves some serious study. I want information and exposure to more details of the discussion.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-09-2020 at 03:57 PM.

  2. #122
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Hospital in Oklahoma City is temporarily shutting down due to a lack of patients.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...k-of-patients/

    Other hospitals across the US are reporting fewer patients overall because people who would normally go to the hospital are staying home.

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/ellieb...ctors-n2566557

    I've heard other anecdotes of hospitals instituting mass layoffs because there's not enough to keep them busy. EMT crews are twiddling their thumbs because nobody is calling 911.

    Yet the mainstream media is telling us that our hospitals are overwhelmed, and that doctors and nurses are being overworked?
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  3. #123
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Achieving herd immunity requires a large percentage of the population to get the disease. Herd immunity to influenza requires ~33% of the population to get it. This it thought to be 3x more contagious than influenza, which would require around 80% of the population to get it to achieve herd immunity.

    If 33%-80% of the US population of ~330 million, gets the disease, that's ~100m to ~264m cases. And that's about 1 to 4 million deaths depending on what numbers you use for death rate from Covid.

    So trying to achieve herd immunity seems an insane and callous strategy that would kill millions.
    I actually agree with Starlight here. The point of the isolation is to

    1. spread out the infection so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed all at once.
    2. keep as few people from being infected until we have a vaccine or effective therapy.

    Just letting people get infected all at once and people dying like flies just to get "herd immunity" is a callous and dangerous method of dealing with the virus. I think Knut M. Wittkowski has a very appropriate first name. Don't be a Knut.

  4. #124
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    I actually agree with Starlight here. The point of the isolation is to

    1. spread out the infection so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed all at once.
    2. keep as few people from being infected until we have a vaccine or effective therapy.

    Just letting people get infected all at once and people dying like flies just to get "herd immunity" is a callous and dangerous method of dealing with the virus. I think Knut M. Wittkowski has a very appropriate first name. Don't be a Knut.
    This will go forever if hospitals are shutting down. We already have chloroquine. This is not a crazy wild disease -- otherwise it would have killed more people in states other than New York and New Jersey. I don't understand how people maintain the irrational view that Starlight promotes.

    Sparko, I have that thread that invites people to investigate alternative experts on issues here. Why do you simply mock people based on their names? We could be doing things that are a little more useful than sitting on our butts while depending on spoonfed information. Do we not have minds that could investigate details better, rather than wasting time?

    Chloroquine is the effective therapy. The virus can be controlled. The calculations should have adapted to the new circumstances. There are competing calculations that should be considered -- people who have noted that the estimates never properly show that a million people could die in the US.

    Starlight said
    Part of assessing alternative viewpoints is to sort the serious and plausible from the frothing at the mouth crazy.
    So I was suggesting he use his research abilities to look at various perspectives on an issue and return back what he finds. We'll see if he takes up that task.

    I listen to people have researched into the matter. There may be some things I relay that has not gotten enough research. The original post here is just addressing plain logic. People have not responded with balanced research -- with hard numbers -- but just with slogans.

    Blessings to you all.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-10-2020 at 08:34 AM.

  5. #125
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    This will go forever if hospitals are shutting down. We already have chloroquine. This is not a crazy wild disease -- otherwise it would have killed more people in states other than New York and New Jersey. I don't understand how people maintain the irrational view that Starlight promotes.

    Sparko, I have that thread that invites people to investigate alternative experts on issues here. Why do you simply mock people based on their names? We could be doing things that are a little more useful than sitting on our butts while depending on spoonfed information. Do we not have minds that could investigate details better, rather than wasting time?
    er, what? Where have I mocked anyone based on their names? Are you confusing me with someone else? I occasionally will call Charles "Chuck, Chuckypoo" or JimL "Jimberly" or some such, but that's about it.

    Oh wait, you meant "Knut" - I just thought it was a bit humorous. He isn't a member here. Any doctor that advocates letting everyone catch a disease just to get it all over with faster, is a nut. A dangerous one. He is too dispassionate and just looking at numbers, not people's lives. He is willing to sacrifice a percentage of people just to protect others based on percentages. That is a complete utilitarian move.





    Chloroquine is the effective therapy. The virus can be controlled. The calculations should have adapted to the new circumstances. There are competing calculations that should be considered -- people who have noted that the estimates never properly show that a million people could die in the US.
    maybe. We don't have enough info yet on how effective it is. Is it 100%? 10%. I wouldn't want to risk my life on it, would you?

    Are you willing to go out into the world living as normal and trust that if you catch it that HCQ will cure you? I am not. I would want to take it if I did catch it, and hope it worked, but I am not willing to trust it to save me to the point I will risk catching the disease in the first place.
    Last edited by Sparko; 04-10-2020 at 08:58 AM.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    er, what? Where have I mocked anyone based on their names? Are you confusing me with someone else? I occasionally will call Charles "Chuck, Chuckypoo" or JimL "Jimberly" or some such, but that's about it.

    Oh wait, you meant "Knut" - I just thought it was a bit humorous. He isn't a member here. Any doctor that advocates letting everyone catch a disease just to get it all over with faster, is a nut. A dangerous one. He is too dispassionate and just looking at numbers, not people's lives. He is willing to sacrifice a percentage of people just to protect others based on percentages. That is a complete utilitarian move.


    maybe. We don't have enough info yet on how effective it is. Is it 100%? 10%. I wouldn't want to risk my life on it, would you?

    Are you willing to go out into the world living as normal and trust that if you catch it that HCQ will cure you? I am not. I would want to take it if I did catch it, and hope it worked, but I am not willing to trust it to save me to the point I will risk catching the disease in the first place.
    I'm willing to go back into the world with that assurance. We are already living like zombies. It would be decent to return to the living. I have shown that the numbers don't work -- that the virus has not been as viral as the best memes. We are risking lives -- probably more from quarantine than the virus itself could do.

    We are going to start having shortages on many supplies of goods as this continues. We are going to have hardships unimaginably worse than the virus if this quarantine stuff goes on. We will learn how the economy worked synergistically to get necessary products to us.

    There is no vaccine. We cannot set our hope on something that does not exist. We have to emerge from our holes.

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  8. #127
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I'm willing to go back into the world with that assurance. We are already living like zombies. It would be decent to return to the living. I have shown that the numbers don't work -- that the virus has not been as viral as the best memes. We are risking lives -- probably more from quarantine than the virus itself could do.

    We are going to start having shortages on many supplies of goods as this continues. We are going to have hardships unimaginably worse than the virus if this quarantine stuff goes on. We will learn how the economy worked synergistically to get necessary products to us.

    There is no vaccine. We cannot set our hope on something that does not exist. We have to emerge from our holes.
    Most people are not willing to risk their lives on an unproven therapy if they are at a high risk of being one of the ones to whom the virus would be deadly.

  9. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Most people are not willing to risk their lives on an unproven therapy if they are at a high risk of being one of the ones to whom the virus would be deadly.
    Even if the medicine works for 90% of the really sick people, that reduces the death rate a whole lot. We then have numbers that are below flu deaths.

    I have just seen stuff in passing that say the results are very good.

    Can you check into the different perspectives on this and report back?

    We will be losing more lives with the collapse of the economy. We are gambling that the closing the economy will give us a better outcome that carefully proceeding in a functional society.

    We already can open up more of the economy in most of the states.

  10. #129
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Even if the medicine works for 90% of the really sick people, that reduces the death rate a whole lot. We then have numbers that are below flu deaths.
    Except we don't know this.
    I have just seen stuff in passing that say the results are very good.
    So? You have been listening to news stories. That isn't proof.

    Can you check into the different perspectives on this and report back?
    You want me to do YOUR homework? Get real.



    We will be losing more lives with the collapse of the economy. We are gambling that the closing the economy will give us a better outcome that carefully proceeding in a functional society.
    Could be.

    We already can open up more of the economy in most of the states.
    You first.
    Last edited by Sparko; 04-10-2020 at 10:34 AM.

  11. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Except we don't know this.
    So? You have been listening to news stories. That isn't proof.

    You want me to do YOUR homework? Get real.


    Could be.


    You first.
    Lovely answer "you want me to do your homework." This issue has already been addressed, at least in part. There are people here who don't care what I say. Plus there are many issues of concern. The study you do can be helpful to many people. Is that good enough reason to study up on this yourself?

    And I cannot open up the economy alone -- that is illogical.

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