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The Numbers Dont Work

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  • #76
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Is there a reason to think that one month is long enough? Will it help at all? All the numbers are speculative.

    Nor has this process has not been tested.
    How *would* the process be tested?
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
      As I expected, you make assumptions with little grounds. No need to discuss things with you
      What assumptions have I made?
      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
        I'm living life as usual because I work an essential job and have no social life in the first place.
        That made me chuckle, so thanks for the light note on a depressing subject.

        But I am curious. Are you taking NO precautions in your essential job? Mask? Keeping as much distancing as circumstances permit? Elevated hand-washing? Care not to touch face? Avoiding normal interactions like shaking hands and hugging?
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • #79
          Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
          How *would* the process be tested?
          Well. It would be better if some states did not try this extreme isolation process or had individual counties make their own decision. We would start to have some comparisons.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            That made me chuckle, so thanks for the light note on a depressing subject.

            But I am curious. Are you taking NO precautions in your essential job? Mask? Keeping as much distancing as circumstances permit? Elevated hand-washing? Care not to touch face? Avoiding normal interactions like shaking hands and hugging?
            My workplace is instituting a number of precautions, including having shifted a large percentage to work from homel, spacing all workers at least ten feet apart, and banning all meetings. I'm also avoiding touching door handles and washing my hands more.
            "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              People are idiots. They wear gloves, touch things in the store, then touch their face with the glove. Then they go through lines, each person moving into the airspace occupied by the person in front of them. Then they touch their wallets with their gloves, and their money or credit card, then go outside, toss their gloves away and when they get home and change clothes they touch their wallets again.

              It slows down the spread but doesn't stop it. You would have to isolate every single person in the USA for a month with no contact with anyone to stop the spread.
              Right. We probsbly cant stop it. The goal is to slow it so it doesnt overwhelm the hospitals until we can get the testing and treatments to a place we can keep the spread at a manageable level.and minimize the mortality, and hopefully find a cure or vaccine.

              But if we gave broad cheap and fast testing it is possible we could effectively stop it.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                My workplace is instituting a number of precautions, including having shifted a large percentage to work from homel, spacing all workers at least ten feet apart, and banning all meetings. I'm also avoiding touching door handles and washing my hands more.
                Reasonable precautions. My son is an "essential worker" because he works in the local grocery store's meat room. He's covered in aprons, a mask, gloves, and they have a strict protocol. Anything going into the meat room has to be sanitized before it is unwrapped/opened. Hands have to be washed and fresh gloves put on before opening, cutting, and packaging any meat. One person is the designated person to refill store cases and it is done once and that person cannot go back into the meat room. When he comes home, he strips at the front door, puts his clothes in a plastic bucket, and heads right for the shower without touching anything. Clothes head for a hot wash immediately.

                Our new reality. But at least he's showering every day now!
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                  Right. We probsbly cant stop it. The goal is to slow it so it doesnt overwhelm the hospitals until we can get the testing and treatments to a place we can keep the spread at a manageable level.and minimize the mortality, and hopefully find a cure or vaccine.

                  But if we gave broad cheap and fast testing it is possible we could effectively stop it.
                  You are finally saying what I have been trying to say. We can start doing more of normal things in life, at least in most places. The hospitals are often not running near capacity right now -- which means we should have more people going to work and reopening places that were closed.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                    But if we gave broad cheap and fast testing it is possible we could effectively stop it.
                    What do you mean by "effectively stop it"? We can't even stop the common flu which according to the CDC kills tens of thousands of Americans every year.
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                      What do you mean by "effectively stop it"? We can't even stop the common flu which according to the CDC kills tens of thousands of Americans every year.
                      It will be interesting to see what the isolation that most countries are doing does to the common flu. I would anticipate the rates of most infectious diseases will be low for a while because everyone keeping separate will reduce their prevalence too.

                      The goal here in NZ for Covid is total eradication of it. With the borders sufficiently sealed it's just a matter of the stay-at-home order lasting a week or two more until there are no new cases. 1 death total here so far.
                      "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                      "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                      "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                        You are finally saying what I have been trying to say. We can start doing more of normal things in life, at least in most places. The hospitals are often not running near capacity right now -- which means we should have more people going to work and reopening places that were closed.
                        The numbers are pretty clear: the vast majority of locales that have not taken aggressive measures to implement safeguards, especially social distancing, are seeing exponential growth of new cases. We're even seeing it in places that ARE practicing social distancing. Lack of testing suggests that we don't even know the true extent of the actual level of infection. Hospitals in most cities are already straining under the current load. Many (most?) have opened auxiliary capacity in hotels, stadiums, and even churches. Ice rinks in larger metro areas are being re-tasked as morgues, as are refrigerator trucks. In 4 weeks we went from 13 detected cases and zero deaths to 7800 detected cases and 150 deaths. In the next four weeks (ending today) we went to 446,184 detected cases and 14,508 deaths, and we are close to 2,000 deaths per day. Right now, NYC is the major hub and accounts for about 1/4 of both detected cases and deaths, but the NYC cure is flattening while most of the rest of the counties in this country are not.

                        So tell me, if 13 cases can balloon to over 445,000 in 8 weeks WITH all of the efforts being made to distance and mitigate, on what basis do you even BEGIN to suggest that we go back to "business as usual" almost anywhere? What happens when people do NOT isolate and apply other mitigation approaches is clear. Right now, about 0.2% of the population is known to be infected, and we already have horrific images coming from hospitals. That means some 99.8% of the population is still vulnerable. If even a fraction of that becomes infected quickly...the results would be devastating.
                        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          The numbers are pretty clear: the vast majority of locales that have not taken aggressive measures to implement safeguards, especially social distancing, are seeing exponential growth of new cases. We're even seeing it in places that ARE practicing social distancing. Lack of testing suggests that we don't even know the true extent of the actual level of infection. Hospitals in most cities are already straining under the current load. Many (most?) have opened auxiliary capacity in hotels, stadiums, and even churches. Ice rinks in larger metro areas are being re-tasked as morgues, as are refrigerator trucks. In 4 weeks we went from 13 detected cases and zero deaths to 7800 detected cases and 150 deaths. In the next four weeks (ending today) we went to 446,184 detected cases and 14,508 deaths, and we are close to 2,000 deaths per day. Right now, NYC is the major hub and accounts for about 1/4 of both detected cases and deaths, but the NYC cure is flattening while most of the rest of the counties in this country are not.

                          So tell me, if 13 cases can balloon to over 445,000 in 8 weeks WITH all of the efforts being made to distance and mitigate, on what basis do you even BEGIN to suggest that we go back to "business as usual" almost anywhere? What happens when people do NOT isolate and apply other mitigation approaches is clear. Right now, about 0.2% of the population is known to be infected, and we already have horrific images coming from hospitals. That means some 99.8% of the population is still vulnerable. If even a fraction of that becomes infected quickly...the results would be devastating.
                          I know you are talking nonsense when you talk about detected cases. There are too many flaws in this. The numbers are meaningless first because the PCR test finds material that looks like COVID-19 but cannot confirm it is. Then doctors report that they report that they have patients with COVID-19 only based on symptoms, not hardly ever based on testing.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                            You are finally saying what I have been trying to say. We can start doing more of normal things in life, at least in most places. The hospitals are often not running near capacity right now -- which means we should have more people going to work and reopening places that were closed.
                            No, I'm not. But if you think I am , that would be part of the problem.
                            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                              I know you are talking nonsense when you talk about detected cases. There are too many flaws in this. The numbers are meaningless first because the PCR test finds material that looks like COVID-19 but cannot confirm it is. Then doctors report that they report that they have patients with COVID-19 only based on symptoms, not hardly ever based on testing.
                              Mike - our hospitals are brimming over with cases that align with what is currently blanketing the world and originated in Wuhan province. The "well, we can't know for sure" argument falls pretty flat when we are piling bodies in refrigerator trucks and discussing digging temporary graves in city parks to store the bodies until they can be properly buried. Yes, the tests are not perfect and not foolproof. We are weeks into this pandemic and the science has not yet caught up to the situation. So everyone is doing the best they can with what they have to work with. But suggesting that the lack of "exact numbers" is an argument for reversing the social isolation and other mitigation steps that have been shown in country after country and location after location to "flatten the curve" is, IMO, irresponsible and more than a little blind.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                                No, I'm not. But if you think I am , that would be part of the problem.
                                you had said
                                The goal is to slow it so it doesnt overwhelm the hospitals until we can get the testing and treatments to a place we can keep the spread at a manageable level.and minimize the mortality, and hopefully find a cure or vaccine.
                                That goal has been done to excessive levels. My point was that we can start opening up the economy again in many places. We can do it carefully so that social distancing is maintained.

                                We step up production of chloroquine for curing people of the sickness -- it seems mainly used for patients that were very ill and could have died. This is likely the cure that we need. We don't know that this would be a reocurring virus. So we get in speculation that maybe will be addressed in years to come. The idea of a vaccine is speculative too -- we wouldn't know for years if this vaccine actually kept people from getting sick.

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