The Numbers Dont Work

[Roy]

I'm not sure what you are looking at in Germany.
I was looking at https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/germany
This showed an average of 95 deaths per day from Mar 18 to April 7. This is well below any extreme concerns. This is out of a population of 83 million.
The deaths since Mar 18 represent 0.002 percent of the population.

This is below the death rate of the flu in the US which can be about 0.008 percent.

Did you just compare the annual rate in the US with the 20-day rate in Germany?

[Starlight]

Did you just compare the annual rate in the US with the 20-day rate in Germany?

Time flows differently there! Don't believe the MSM, their models of time are wrong. The numbers don't work.

[Charles]

[...]The last line of my post summarizes the excuses made here by those vigorously downplaying the reality of covid-19, and form a basis of the denialism here.

Talking about denial I guess many of you will find this one interesting: The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged

Despite these and other extreme steps, the United States will likely go down as the country that was supposedly best prepared to fight a pandemic but ended up catastrophically overmatched by the novel coronavirus, sustaining heavier casualties than any other nation.

[simplicio]

Talking about denial I guess many of you will find this one interesting: The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged

Yabut, it the WaPo and they only want to tear down Trump and abort more babies.

Now the administration wants to place the focus on the WHO. So while the WHO declared it a global health emergency in January, that was nothing to worry about.

If the WHO did move a week or two more quickly, would it have made a difference to any country? Would it have changed the US response? I think we had access to every bit of information the WHO had. Everyone focuses on the lies of China, but how many of those were outright falsehoods, designed to misinform? And did those falsehoods affect the world's response?

"Never let a crisis go to waste", the antiglobalists are not letting this plum opportunity go to waste.

[Mountain Man]

I know this is your wheel house but I can't help but think you missed something in my numbers. Incidence rate is unknown, yes, but irrelevant to my point. My US death number is not that far off from the CDC number. I'm ignoring the huge number of positive cases that are currently unresolved and focusing ONLY on the cases that are over, (cured or dead). CDC has 12,064 deaths, worldometers has 12,790. I don't see on the CDC site the number of cases that are resolved/patients who survived the disease. If you know that number from the CDC then let me know where to find it. IF the numbers are correct from worldometers, then my numbers stand. If they are not then please provide numbers that you feel are more accurate.

The problem with the death total in the US is that anybody who dies while infected is coded as a Wuhan virus death regardless of any other factors. This has inflated the mortality rate significantly.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543

[Esther]

I would like to thank MikeWhitney, Mountain Man and Demi for this post. I am not clever enough to understand all the numbers and how they either add or don't add up but it was good to read a different perspective other than the constant barrage of the raging coronavirus. This has not in any way made me complacent. It has just relieved me from from the overwhelming fear.

[Ronson]

The problem with the death total in the US is that anybody who dies while infected is coded as a Wuhan virus death regardless of any other factors. This has inflated the mortality rate significantly.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543

I think they're using the AIDS template. People actually died from various infections due to a weakened immune system, so they attributed it to AIDS if the virus was present.

But yeah, the numbers are also inflated because we know for absolutely certain that there have been many, many more infections than what are counted (because no one knows the actual numbers). Including those would drive the death rate way down.

As it stands with the numbers currently available, it appears (to me) that this coronavirus is slightly more contagious than a seasonal flu, and vastly more deadly. But if those unknown numbers were known and plugged in, it would make coronavirus vastly more contagious than a seasonal flu, and only slightly more deadly.

IMO

[oxmixmudd]

I would like to thank MikeWhitney, Mountain Man and Demi for this post. I am not clever enough to understand all the numbers and how they either add or don't add up but it was good to read a different perspective other than the constant barrage of the raging coronavirus. This has not in any way made me complacent. It has just relieved me from from the overwhelming fear.

They have done you a great disservice. They are clueless. You need to take the appropriate precautions. I am sorry about the fear, but misinformation that gives you a false sense of security is about as bad a thing as could be done to you. You dont need to live with overwhelming fear, seek help from a pastor, friend or professional on that. But most certainly dont change your actions based on what these people are saying. Again, they are about as misinformed on this as one can be.

[oxmixmudd]

I think they're using the AIDS template. People actually died from various infections due to a weakened immune system, so they attributed it to AIDS if the virus was present.

But yeah, the numbers are also inflated because we know for absolutely certain that there have been many, many more infections than what are counted (because no one knows the actual numbers). Including those would drive the death rate way down.

As it stands with the numbers currently available, it appears (to me) that this coronavirus is slightly more contagious than a seasonal flu, and vastly more deadly. But if those unknown numbers were known and plugged in, it would make coronavirus vastly more contagious than a seasonal flu, and only slightly more deadly.

IMO

In Iceland, a full testing program has shown the real number of infections is about 50% higher than found with symptom based testing. So if you look at the mortalities in places like germany and s korea, with aggressive but not full testing, and divide that by two, the you getcha best case. And that best case is still between .7 and 1.2%. 7 to 12 times the flu with hospital capacity only just barely able to handle what a typical flu season brings.

And given what we are seeing, it seems very unlikely the real mortality is that low.

These attempts to establish a number, no matter how clever the statistician, cant override the raw reality of what is actually happening where the spread of this virus is uncontrolled. Can a number like this account for the severity in the hospital cases, and the overflowing hospitals ICUs and morgues.

[Sparko]

Exponential growth cannot happen where people are isolated. There are not enough transmission paths to make this possible.

No one is truly isolated. People are still going out to get groceries for instance. It is enough to lower the rate of infection, but not enough to stop it.


I do think the press reporting the deaths from this every day makes it sound scarier than it is. There are over 7,400 deaths in the USA every day on a NORMAL day.

[Roy]

I do think the press reporting the deaths from this every day makes it sound scarier than it is. There are over 7,400 deaths in the USA every day on a NORMAL day.

I think you're undercounting - it should be about 15,000 per day (population/lifespan)

Covid-19 has increased that number of deaths by 10%.

[Mountain Man]

I think they're using the AIDS template. People actually died from various infections due to a weakened immune system, so they attributed it to AIDS if the virus was present.

But yeah, the numbers are also inflated because we know for absolutely certain that there have been many, many more infections than what are counted (because no one knows the actual numbers). Including those would drive the death rate way down.

As it stands with the numbers currently available, it appears (to me) that this coronavirus is slightly more contagious than a seasonal flu, and vastly more deadly. But if those unknown numbers were known and plugged in, it would make coronavirus vastly more contagious than a seasonal flu, and only slightly more deadly.

IMO

What would be interesting is a statistic tracking how many Wuhan victims had preexisting illnesses, and how many were afflicted only by the coronavirus.

[Esther]

They have done you a great disservice. They are clueless. You need to take the appropriate precautions. I am sorry about the fear, but misinformation that gives you a false sense of security is about as bad a thing as could be done to you. You dont need to live with overwhelming fear, seek help from a pastor, friend or professional on that. But most certainly dont change your actions based on what these people are saying. Again, they are about as misinformed on this as one can be.

Thank you oxmixmudd please note I did say it hasn't made me complacent. It has just helped with the overwhelming fear.

[mikewhitney]

Did you just compare the annual rate in the US with the 20-day rate in Germany?

Thanks, Roy. We have someone who has responded to the numbers and not just with hype. If this virus is truly effective for 3 months total and at the same rate, you could multiple the number by 3 -- it may get you to an equivalent annual rate.
Note that the number at March 18 was about 65. We are at about the end of flu season which may be similar to the end of this virus episode.

If we multiple the 21 day numbers by 3, then Germany has 0.006 percent of population projected annualized death rate with this which is a bit closer but below the US flu rate (the rate varies, I think my number was in the middle). I was just marking a theoretical finish line with the Germany-US comparison. But your contribution here is still worthwhile noting.

If you look at the California numbers, it is nonsense to have so much isolation. Nobody has really shown how this situation demands such isolation. Things should make more sense before the governors push such drastic measures. Then we see how the media has made blatant lies about individuals dying. The numbers don't work.

[mikewhitney]

No one is truly isolated. People are still going out to get groceries for instance. It is enough to lower the rate of infection, but not enough to stop it.


I do think the press reporting the deaths from this every day makes it sound scarier than it is. There are over 7,400 deaths in the USA every day on a NORMAL day.

The infections should not be high at the store since there is minimum pathways for spreading it. People are already told to keep their distance. People already are washing their hands more. We are never guaranteed the idea that the virus will disappear through this. The purpose ostensibly was to slow the spread so that hospitals could handle the load. But California is not overloading the hospitals, nor are many other places.