If we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?
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80,000 Deaths...
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80,000 Deaths...
Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3sTags: None
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Picking a number and saying, "Below this is success; over this is failure," is entirely arbitrary and makes the assumption that we could necessarily keep it below that number.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Success would have been the world sealing borders properly and fast enough such that there were never any cases outside of China.
All the deaths, all the mass quarantines, all the lost jobs, all the bailouts, are a result of the failure to act fast enough to block the international spread of it.
No, 80,000 deaths is not "success". We have 1 death here in NZ, and I consider that a failure... it should never have reached our country in the first place. In the US you have 100x the population of NZ, so 100 deaths for you I would consider a failure. So 80,000 deaths would be 800x a failure.
However it appears to me that the US is taking totally inadequate actions to contain the spread so it wouldn't surprise me if a significant fraction of the total US population (e.g. a third) ends up getting the virus. That would be around a million deaths if that happened. That would be an epic failure on a scale rarely seen in history.Last edited by Starlight; 04-08-2020, 04:16 PM."I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by Dimbulb View PostWe have 1 death here in NZ, and I consider that a failure...Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by seer View PostIf we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by seer View PostIf we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?
I consider 80,000 difficult, but achievable, based on my analysis of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report / March 16.
Originally posted by Juvenal View PostIn the UK, total deaths from the epidemic can be cut by 90 percent by choosing to suppress using all four and relaxing SD for up to 30 percent of the period.
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Similar results are achievable in the US.
The 2.2 million figure for the US was a baseline, the number of deaths we'd expect in an animal population. It assumed no mitigation efforts would be made. It assumed the attack rate — the total number infected by the virus during the epidemic — would reach 81 percent. The death count is directly proportional to the attack rate.
It was reported that mitigation could cut the fatalities in half, to around a million, when herd immunity would be enough to keep the virus suppressed. To achieve this reduction, because herd immunity is at 58 percent, it would be necessary to more fully isolate older Americans who are proportionately more likely to become fatalities.
Without isolating them more fully than the general population, 58/81 of 2.2 million is 1.6 million deaths.
The better alternative being pursued in much of the country is suppression, which can reasonably reduce fatalities by 90 percent, 200,000 deaths, and with difficultly up to 96 percent, 80,000, as you've suggested.
This can be achieved and is being achieved elsewhere using a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions: home isolation of infected individuals, home quarantine of their family members, school closures, and social distancing. It's expected that case counts will begin to rise exponentially if these NPIs are relaxed, resulting in resumption of the previous estimate of around a million deaths if they are not reimposed.
Table 4, attached in the quoted post above, modeled relaxing and reimposing social distancing based on the number of new cases. As the number reaches a trigger value, social distancing would be reimposed. As the number falls to one quarter of that value, social distancing would be relaxed. This would entail an initial period of strong interventions to quickly suppress the epidemic. After initial suppression, interspersed periods of relaxation and reimposition of social distancing would be needed until a vaccine becomes available in 12 to 18 months.
The timing of relaxation and reimposition would be controlled by the virus itself.
But for purposes of understanding the scale, it should be noted that for every month social distancing was relaxed, three months of reimposition would be required to re-suppress the epidemic.
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostSo you're of the "No solution is too extreme if it prevents even a single death" mindset.
If I recall correctly, in one of the pandemic scares about 10-15 years ago, Western countries were all ready to totally seal their borders instantly if a case was detected outside of the originating region. This time round at the start there was a "~shrug~ These sort of things tend to spread, y'know, even with weak attempts to seal borders, so why bother?" response. This laissez-faire response has proved a failure, and has necessitated increasingly escalated responses that have wrecked economies, jobs, businesses, and lives."I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by seanD View PostThat's rayyyycisssst!!!"I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
Comment
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostChina found that literally sealing people into their homes
As far as I can tell from the varied reporting on it, what happened was a few sick people who returned from Wuhan to their home provinces got briefly sealed into their homes by overzealous and over-stupid local government officials acting on their own initiative, who quickly reversed their actions due to public outcry about it.
There does not appear to have ever been any official political policy in China to seal people into their homes, nor did happen in large amounts. Obviously physically sealing people in would not make much logical sense as a policy anyway, because they need food, and if they were to become seriously ill, medical assistance."I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
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