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80,000 Deaths...

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  • 80,000 Deaths...

    If we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

  • #2
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    If we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?
    Considering one year the flu deaths were 64,000, I would say yes.

    Comment


    • #3
      Picking a number and saying, "Below this is success; over this is failure," is entirely arbitrary and makes the assumption that we could necessarily keep it below that number.
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • #4
        Success would have been the world sealing borders properly and fast enough such that there were never any cases outside of China.

        All the deaths, all the mass quarantines, all the lost jobs, all the bailouts, are a result of the failure to act fast enough to block the international spread of it.

        No, 80,000 deaths is not "success". We have 1 death here in NZ, and I consider that a failure... it should never have reached our country in the first place. In the US you have 100x the population of NZ, so 100 deaths for you I would consider a failure. So 80,000 deaths would be 800x a failure.

        However it appears to me that the US is taking totally inadequate actions to contain the spread so it wouldn't surprise me if a significant fraction of the total US population (e.g. a third) ends up getting the virus. That would be around a million deaths if that happened. That would be an epic failure on a scale rarely seen in history.
        Last edited by Starlight; 04-08-2020, 04:16 PM.
        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by seer View Post
          If we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?
          It would be another successful prediction.
          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
            Success would have been the world sealing borders properly and fast enough such that there were never any cases outside of China.
            Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Dimbulb View Post
              We have 1 death here in NZ, and I consider that a failure...
              So you're of the "No solution is too extreme if it prevents even a single death" mindset. China found that literally sealing people into their homes was an excellent means of preventing infected people from entering the population. I imagine that saved a lot of lives.
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                Success would have been the world sealing borders properly and fast enough such that there were never any cases outside of China.
                That's rayyyycisssst!!!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by seer View Post
                  If we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?
                  It is a success only in that we didn't it wasn't worse. But had the appropriate steps been taken early on, then the total number of cases need not gave been that high. Let alone deaths.
                  My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                  If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                  This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by seanD View Post
                    That's rayyyycisssst!!!
                    triggered.jpg

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by seer View Post
                      If we keep our numbers under 80,000 deaths given that we had some very high end estimates: 200,00 to 2,000,000 - would you consider that a success?
                      When the crisis is over and we've had a chance to analyze our response we'll know how successful our efforts have been.

                      I consider 80,000 difficult, but achievable, based on my analysis of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report / March 16.

                      Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                      In the UK, total deaths from the epidemic can be cut by 90 percent by choosing to suppress using all four and relaxing SD for up to 30 percent of the period.

                      [ATTACH=CONFIG]43666[/ATTACH]

                      Similar results are achievable in the US.
                      To scale from GB to the US, multiply the fatalities by four.

                      The 2.2 million figure for the US was a baseline, the number of deaths we'd expect in an animal population. It assumed no mitigation efforts would be made. It assumed the attack rate — the total number infected by the virus during the epidemic — would reach 81 percent. The death count is directly proportional to the attack rate.

                      It was reported that mitigation could cut the fatalities in half, to around a million, when herd immunity would be enough to keep the virus suppressed. To achieve this reduction, because herd immunity is at 58 percent, it would be necessary to more fully isolate older Americans who are proportionately more likely to become fatalities.

                      Without isolating them more fully than the general population, 58/81 of 2.2 million is 1.6 million deaths.

                      The better alternative being pursued in much of the country is suppression, which can reasonably reduce fatalities by 90 percent, 200,000 deaths, and with difficultly up to 96 percent, 80,000, as you've suggested.

                      This can be achieved and is being achieved elsewhere using a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions: home isolation of infected individuals, home quarantine of their family members, school closures, and social distancing. It's expected that case counts will begin to rise exponentially if these NPIs are relaxed, resulting in resumption of the previous estimate of around a million deaths if they are not reimposed.

                      Table 4, attached in the quoted post above, modeled relaxing and reimposing social distancing based on the number of new cases. As the number reaches a trigger value, social distancing would be reimposed. As the number falls to one quarter of that value, social distancing would be relaxed. This would entail an initial period of strong interventions to quickly suppress the epidemic. After initial suppression, interspersed periods of relaxation and reimposition of social distancing would be needed until a vaccine becomes available in 12 to 18 months.

                      The timing of relaxation and reimposition would be controlled by the virus itself.

                      But for purposes of understanding the scale, it should be noted that for every month social distancing was relaxed, three months of reimposition would be required to re-suppress the epidemic.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                        So you're of the "No solution is too extreme if it prevents even a single death" mindset.
                        No, I'm of the, "simply sealing the relevant borders with China right at the start would have prevented the need for deaths, quarantines, job losses, bail-outs" mindset.

                        If I recall correctly, in one of the pandemic scares about 10-15 years ago, Western countries were all ready to totally seal their borders instantly if a case was detected outside of the originating region. This time round at the start there was a "~shrug~ These sort of things tend to spread, y'know, even with weak attempts to seal borders, so why bother?" response. This laissez-faire response has proved a failure, and has necessitated increasingly escalated responses that have wrecked economies, jobs, businesses, and lives.
                        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by seanD View Post
                          That's rayyyycisssst!!!
                          You conservatives are so easily triggered by everything. It's sad.
                          "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                          "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                          "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                            China found that literally sealing people into their homes
                            This seems to be an over-hyped claim.

                            As far as I can tell from the varied reporting on it, what happened was a few sick people who returned from Wuhan to their home provinces got briefly sealed into their homes by overzealous and over-stupid local government officials acting on their own initiative, who quickly reversed their actions due to public outcry about it.

                            There does not appear to have ever been any official political policy in China to seal people into their homes, nor did happen in large amounts. Obviously physically sealing people in would not make much logical sense as a policy anyway, because they need food, and if they were to become seriously ill, medical assistance.
                            "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                            "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                            "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                              Success would have been the world sealing borders properly and fast enough such that there were never any cases outside of China.
                              Cases were spreading out of China weeks before the "unusual pneumonia" was identified as a novel infection.

                              Comment

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