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Thread: 80,000 Deaths...

  1. #21
    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    seanD was mocking the dumb reaction of liberals who insist that any mention of China's culpability is racist and xenophobic.
    There does seem to have been deliberate attempts by some on the American right to stoke racism and xenophobia and patriotism with regard to this virus. Presumably the idea of such propaganda was to present the situation as US vs China and have everyone rally around the dear leader (Trump) and focus on an enemy to hate (conservatives seem to need that).

    You and Rogue seem to be the main culprits in that regard in this forum.

  2. #22
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Thank you for providing a textbook example of what we're talking about.
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  3. Amen RumTumTugger amen'd this post.
  4. #23
    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    There does seem to have been deliberate attempts by some on the American right to stoke racism and xenophobia and patriotism with regard to this virus. Presumably the idea of such propaganda was to present the situation as US vs China and have everyone rally around the dear leader (Trump) and focus on an enemy to hate (conservatives seem to need that).

    You and Rogue seem to be the main culprits in that regard in this forum.
    In your world, China didnít destroy lab samples, arrest doctors attempting to sound the alarm, lie about human to human spread, lie about death rates, lie about infection rates, and spent well over a month lying to everyone about this virus. Too bad your world isnít realty and all these things actually happened. Is China at least paying you to cover for their lies?
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
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  5. #24
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    There does seem to have been deliberate attempts by some on the American right to stoke racism and xenophobia and patriotism with regard to this virus. Presumably the idea of such propaganda was to present the situation as US vs China and have everyone rally around the dear leader (Trump) and focus on an enemy to hate (conservatives seem to need that).

    You and Rogue seem to be the main culprits in that regard in this forum.
    Kiwis and Dems are deliberately using this COVID-19 virus to promote hatred to the President and toward Republicans. Leftists seem to need an enemy to hate.

  6. Amen RumTumTugger amen'd this post.
  7. #25
    tWebber Roy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror, elsewhere
    Poor wording, I should had said China had to have known, for months, and just repeated this lie and got the WHO and the rest of the world to buy into their lies.
    No, you should have said China had to have known for days or maybe weeks. Not months.
    November, December, January. How many months is that?
    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    In your world, China didnít destroy lab samples, arrest doctors attempting to sound the alarm, lie about human to human spread, lie about death rates, lie about infection rates, and spent well over a month lying to everyone about this virus.
    So you've finally realised that your claim that China knew for months was claptrap. A pity you don't have the integrity to admit you were wrong.
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  8. Amen oxmixmudd amen'd this post.
  9. #26
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    When the crisis is over and we've had a chance to analyze our response we'll know how successful our efforts have been.

    I consider 80,000 difficult, but achievable, based on my analysis of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report / March 16.



    To scale from GB to the US, multiply the fatalities by four.

    The 2.2 million figure for the US was a baseline, the number of deaths we'd expect in an animal population. It assumed no mitigation efforts would be made. It assumed the attack rate ó the total number infected by the virus during the epidemic ó would reach 81 percent. The death count is directly proportional to the attack rate.

    It was reported that mitigation could cut the fatalities in half, to around a million, when herd immunity would be enough to keep the virus suppressed. To achieve this reduction, because herd immunity is at 58 percent, it would be necessary to more fully isolate older Americans who are proportionately more likely to become fatalities.

    Without isolating them more fully than the general population, 58/81 of 2.2 million is 1.6 million deaths.

    The better alternative being pursued in much of the country is suppression, which can reasonably reduce fatalities by 90 percent, 200,000 deaths, and with difficultly up to 96 percent, 80,000, as you've suggested.

    This can be achieved and is being achieved elsewhere using a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions: home isolation of infected individuals, home quarantine of their family members, school closures, and social distancing. It's expected that case counts will begin to rise exponentially if these NPIs are relaxed, resulting in resumption of the previous estimate of around a million deaths if they are not reimposed.

    Table 4, attached in the quoted post above, modeled relaxing and reimposing social distancing based on the number of new cases. As the number reaches a trigger value, social distancing would be reimposed. As the number falls to one quarter of that value, social distancing would be relaxed. This would entail an initial period of strong interventions to quickly suppress the epidemic. After initial suppression, interspersed periods of relaxation and reimposition of social distancing would be needed until a vaccine becomes available in 12 to 18 months.

    The timing of relaxation and reimposition would be controlled by the virus itself.

    But for purposes of understanding the scale, it should be noted that for every month social distancing was relaxed, three months of reimposition would be required to re-suppress the epidemic.
    Their new estimate is 60,000 deaths if people keep isolating.


    As of Wednesday, the model predicted the virus will kill 60,000 people in the United States over the next four months. That's about 33,000 fewer deaths than the model estimated last Thursday.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html

  10. #27
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Their new estimate is 60,000 deaths if people keep isolating.


    As of Wednesday, the model predicted the virus will kill 60,000 people in the United States over the next four months. That's about 33,000 fewer deaths than the model estimated last Thursday.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html
    This is good. But I think those models assume we continue to self isolate for quite some time.
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  11. #28
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    This is good. But I think those models assume we continue to self isolate for quite some time.
    maybe, but they also are not taking into account any effective treatments that might be found either. There are a lot of missing data in these models.

  12. #29
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Their new estimate is 60,000 deaths if people keep isolating.


    As of Wednesday, the model predicted the virus will kill 60,000 people in the United States over the next four months. That's about 33,000 fewer deaths than the model estimated last Thursday.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html
    The models from the beginning have always been way too high, but I guess the "experts" were operating with a "plan for the worst, hope for the best" mentality.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  13. Amen RumTumTugger amen'd this post.
  14. #30
    tWebber Thoughtful Monk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Success would have been the world sealing borders properly and fast enough such that there were never any cases outside of China.

    All the deaths, all the mass quarantines, all the lost jobs, all the bailouts, are a result of the failure to act fast enough to block the international spread of it.

    No, 80,000 deaths is not "success". We have 1 death here in NZ, and I consider that a failure... it should never have reached our country in the first place. In the US you have 100x the population of NZ, so 100 deaths for you I would consider a failure. So 80,000 deaths would be 800x a failure.

    However it appears to me that the US is taking totally inadequate actions to contain the spread so it wouldn't surprise me if a significant fraction of the total US population (e.g. a third) ends up getting the virus. That would be around a million deaths if that happened. That would be an epic failure on a scale rarely seen in history.
    My gauge of success or failure is the number of deaths per 1 million population. Right now the US is at 45.4 which is significantly less than Spain 326.1; Italy 292.4; Belgium 220.9; and France 162.3. Of course, the US is still heading towards peak so I'm sure that number is going to move up. I guess we can't call success or failure until this is over.

    By the way, I used the chart on RealClearPolitics for my numbers.
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