'The first New York patient was in...January?'

[demi-conservative]

Prepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/s...e-genomes.html

[Sparko]

Prepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:

I can't see the article because it is behind a paywall, but from your quote I think they are saying that it was circulating in Europe in January-February and came to NY from there instead of from California/Washington.

The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.

[demi-conservative]

I can't see the article because it is behind a paywall, but from your quote I think they are saying that it was circulating in Europe in January-February and came to NY from there instead of from California/Washington.

The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.

Look at the first sentence in the quote.

"Dr. Heguy estimated that the virus began circulating in the New York area a couple of months ago."

Early February, if not earlier.

[demi-conservative]

ABC has the same story

A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-c...ry?id=70062642

From the video, Fauci also agrees it is "probably correct" that the earliest case was "far earlier than people thought", in mid-Feburary.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ABC News' chief anchor George Stephanopoulos on Thursday that the new research is "probably correct" about how and when COVID-19 presented in New York.

Narrative shifting!

[Sparko]

ABC has the same story



From the video, Fauci also agrees it is "probably correct" that the earliest case was "far earlier than people thought", in mid-Feburary.



Narrative shifting!

ok. So what?

[demi-conservative]

ok. So what?

Why do you ask me? You only trust Fauci and that lot of ''''''''''experts''''''''.

Wait for them to tell you what this does to their models.

[Mountain Man]

ok. So what?

It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.

[demi-conservative]

It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.

Doubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.

[Sparko]

It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.

forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.

[Sparko]

Doubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.

Maybe, but then you are having that mortality compressed into ONE MONTH rather than 6 which increases the number dying.

[demi-conservative]

It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.

This is why they are revising the US death forecasts downwards. If the first spread in the US started even 2 weeks earlier everything is much less serious.

[Mountain Man]

forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.

Dr. Birx established what she described as a very liberal standard for determining cornavirus deaths. Basically, if someone had the China flu when they died, then that is stated as the cause of death regardless of any other factors. This has undoubtedly inflated the case fatality rate dramatically. What we really need is a breakdown of those who had just COVID-19, and those who had preexisting health issues. It's entirely possible that the virus is not fatal on its own except in very rare circumstances, in which case, we can identify those who are most vulnerable and take the necessary steps to protect them and allow the rest of us to go back to work.

[demi-conservative]

Maybe, but then you are having that mortality compressed into ONE MONTH rather than 6 which increases the number dying.

forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.

Let's try this analogy. Compare a candle that you burn from both ends to the same candle that you burn from one end. One burns faster, but the same amount of wax is burnt when all is said and done.

Fatality rate is about number of deaths/number of cases. Faster spread increases both the numerator and denominator and doesn't necessarily mean a higher fatality rate.

[demi-conservative]

The other thing: if the initial case was 2-4 weeks earlier, everything else constant the peak is 2-4 weeks earlier, which means the peak might already be close to over or over.

[demi-conservative]

forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing.

And how much of this is because testing is increasing?