Prepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:
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'The first New York patient was in...January?'
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostPrepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:
The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostI can't see the article because it is behind a paywall, but from your quote I think they are saying that it was circulating in Europe in January-February and came to NY from there instead of from California/Washington.
The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.
"Dr. Heguy estimated that the virus began circulating in the New York area a couple of months ago."
Early February, if not earlier.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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ABC has the same story
A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-c...ry?id=70062642
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ABC News' chief anchor George Stephanopoulos on Thursday that the new research is "probably correct" about how and when COVID-19 presented in New York.Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020, 03:06 PM.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by Sparko View Postok. So what?Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostIt means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020, 03:22 PM.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostIt means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostDoubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostIt means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by Sparko View Postforget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostMaybe, but then you are having that mortality compressed into ONE MONTH rather than 6 which increases the number dying.Originally posted by Sparko View Postforget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.
Fatality rate is about number of deaths/number of cases. Faster spread increases both the numerator and denominator and doesn't necessarily mean a higher fatality rate.Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020, 03:37 PM.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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