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Thread: 'The first New York patient was in...January?'

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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    'The first New York patient was in...January?'

    Prepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:

    Dr. Heguy estimated that the virus began circulating in the New York area a couple of months ago.

    And researchers at Mount Sinai started sequencing the genomes of patients coming through their hospital. They found that the earliest cases identified in New York were not linked to later ones.

    “Two weeks later, we start seeing viruses related to each other,” said Ana Silvia Gonzalez-Reiche, a member of the Mount Sinai team.

    Dr. Gonzalez-Reiche and her colleagues found that these viruses were practically identical to viruses found around Europe. They cannot say on what particular flight a particular virus arrived in New York. But they write that the viruses reveal “a period of untracked global transmission between late January to mid-February.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/s...e-genomes.html
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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Prepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:



    I can't see the article because it is behind a paywall, but from your quote I think they are saying that it was circulating in Europe in January-February and came to NY from there instead of from California/Washington.

    The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.

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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    I can't see the article because it is behind a paywall, but from your quote I think they are saying that it was circulating in Europe in January-February and came to NY from there instead of from California/Washington.

    The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.
    Look at the first sentence in the quote.

    "Dr. Heguy estimated that the virus began circulating in the New York area a couple of months ago."

    Early February, if not earlier.
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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    ABC has the same story

    A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-c...ry?id=70062642
    From the video, Fauci also agrees it is "probably correct" that the earliest case was "far earlier than people thought", in mid-Feburary.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ABC News' chief anchor George Stephanopoulos on Thursday that the new research is "probably correct" about how and when COVID-19 presented in New York.
    Narrative shifting!
    Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020 at 01:06 PM.
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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    ABC has the same story



    From the video, Fauci also agrees it is "probably correct" that the earliest case was "far earlier than people thought", in mid-Feburary.



    Narrative shifting!
    ok. So what?

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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    ok. So what?
    Why do you ask me? You only trust Fauci and that lot of ''''''''''experts''''''''.

    Wait for them to tell you what this does to their models.
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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    ok. So what?
    It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
    Doubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.
    Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020 at 01:22 PM.
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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
    forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.

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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Doubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.
    Maybe, but then you are having that mortality compressed into ONE MONTH rather than 6 which increases the number dying.

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