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Thread: 'The first New York patient was in...January?'

  1. #51
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Except that contact tracing is not extensive enough in places you panic about like Italy, full testing is not available, and R0 is useless apart from context - R0 changes over time, so which part of the curve are you measuring R0 at?

    You're grasping at straws. You know well that contact tracing is not extensive enough almost anywhere to derive R0, and that there has not been enough testing capability to do 'full testing over the incubation period'. Certainly not in places like Italy, and you're panicking about the mortality in Italy.
    The virus is the virus. It behaves in certain ways. So you don't need to contract trace every case to derive R0. You just need to analyze a sufficiently large sample.

    Here is a link to analysis of the spread abort the Diamond Princess which derived an R0 of 2.28.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  2. #52
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimL View Post
    Well.
    Leave well enough alone.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  3. #53
    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    I think you missed the point -- let's say that diabetes caused a heart attack in a patient who also had Covid-19. Would you think it was proper to list the death as "due to Covid-19"?
    It was just announced we've had our 2nd covid-positive death in NZ. It was a woman in her 90s with serious pre-existing medical conditions.

    So she 'doesn't count'?

  4. #54
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    It was just announced we've had our 2nd covid-positive death in NZ. It was a woman in her 90s with serious pre-existing medical conditions.

    So she 'doesn't count'?
    Apparently the thinking is, anyone who has some underlying illness, or is just old, they were going to die anyway, as if they know that, so let's not count them. Anything to defend Trumps messaging to them that it's a hoax!

  5. #55
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    The virus is the virus. It behaves in certain ways. So you don't need to contract trace every case to derive R0. You just need to analyze a sufficiently large sample.

    Here is a link to analysis of the spread abort the Diamond Princess which derived an R0 of 2.28.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725
    Parrot, that's useless because you don't know how many cases there were, how many have recovered and are negative to the RNA test.
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

  6. #56
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Parrot, that's useless because you don't know how many cases there were, how many have recovered and are negative to the RNA test.
    Actually that is the best data available to check models. We can assume every person did not have it before boarding. and each person was tested at least once. We also know how many became acutely ill, and how many died.

  7. #57
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Parrot, that's useless because you don't know how many cases there were, how many have recovered and are negative to the RNA test.
    So much for science, reason, and objectivity. You do realize you've simply now been reduced to name calling out of anger and what looks every bit like hate, though I'm sure you,ll deny that is the right word for it. In fact, if there were not rules against it here, I can only imagine how many 'colorful metaphors' would be lacing these last few replies.

    Do you suppose that perhaps your current attitude when faced with simple facts and objective science might be an indicator that perhaps you are not approaching this issue in an objective and rational manner?

    That paper is a study of the diamond princes, a confined and isolated space with a fixed number of interactions. And as I have pointed out, full test studies have shown asymptomatic cases run about 50%. which constrains the size of the potential set of missed cases.

    Your response here, if you are thinking rationally, would be to look for actual science that sheds additional light on what the set of asymptomatic cases actually are, or better yet, to let the actual science and research influence your thought on this, as I am the doing with the paper Sparko posted which appears to be actual science that showed an r0 of 5.7. That would be an objective, reasoned response. One that adds or could add meaningful information to the debate.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-10-2020 at 04:06 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  8. #58
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    To elaborate, hospitals being overloaded does not mean that a virus is more deadly. Two virus with the same fatality rate but different R0 will have a different loads on hospitals. One curve can peak in one month and overload hospitals, while another can peak in 4 months with the same fatality rate.


    Working doctors to exhaustion is primarily a matter of how fast the virus spreads and not how deadly it is. Get that into your head somehow.
    And then you have hospitals like this one in Oklahoma City that are temporarily shutting down most of its services due to a lack of patients. I guess all those exhausted doctors will be getting a much needed break.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...k-of-patients/
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
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    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  9. #59
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplicio View Post
    Actually that is the best data available to check models. We can assume every person did not have it before boarding. and each person was tested at least once. We also know how many became acutely ill, and how many died.
    It is useless because without serology you don't know the total number of cases. The first patient was found sick 11 days after the cruise began, and how many patients got it and recovered within that period are unknown.

    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    So much for science, reason, and objectivity. You do realize you've simply now been reduced to name calling out of anger and what looks every bit like hate, though I'm sure you,ll deny that is the right word for it. In fact, if there were not rules against it here, I can only imagine how many 'colorful metaphors' would be lacing these last few replies.
    Stop crying and parroting R0 values. There have been no full test studies with serology, so R0 has not been measured accurately, and neither has fatality rate.
    Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-10-2020 at 06:12 AM.
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

  10. #60
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    It was just announced we've had our 2nd covid-positive death in NZ. It was a woman in her 90s with serious pre-existing medical conditions.

    So she 'doesn't count'?
    What an incredibly moronic misguided conclusion.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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