'The first New York patient was in...January?'

[Cow Poke]

Dr. Birx established what she described as a very liberal standard for determining cornavirus deaths. Basically, if someone had the China flu when they died, then that is stated as the cause of death regardless of any other factors. This has undoubtedly inflated the case fatality rate dramatically. What we really need is a breakdown of those who had just COVID-19, and those who had preexisting health issues. It's entirely possible that the virus is not fatal on its own except in very rare circumstances, in which case, we can identify those who are most vulnerable and take the necessary steps to protect them and allow the rest of us to go back to work.

Yes, I heard a doctor on TV explaining that a patient who dies "with" Covid, regardless of the actual cause of death (heart attack, stroke, whatever) is counted as a Covid death. She made a very clear distinction between dying "with" and dying "from" Covid, but seemed proud of the fact that the form for recording the death includes a check box for Covid, and that trumped any other cause of death.

I was yelling at the TV --- NO, it's like somebody dying "with" diabetes, but died FROM a major heart attack - you don't list diabetes as the "cause of death".

[demi-conservative]

If the first case hit the US 1 month earlier, then the peak is likely over. This changes everything, this is why they are suddenly changing fatality forecast.

Yes, I heard a doctor on TV explaining that a patient who dies "with" Covid, regardless of the actual cause of death (heart attack, stroke, whatever) is counted as a Covid death. She made a very clear distinction between dying "with" and dying "from" Covid, but seemed proud of the fact that the form for recording the death includes a check box for Covid, and that trumped any other cause of death.

I was yelling at the TV --- NO, it's like somebody dying "with" diabetes, but died FROM a major heart attack - you don't list diabetes as the "cause of death".

Trust the experts, Cow Poke!

[Starlight]

I was yelling at the TV --- NO, it's like somebody dying "with" diabetes, but died FROM a major heart attack - you don't list diabetes as the "cause of death".

Diabetes causes heart attacks.

So if diabetes caused a heart attack which caused death, it's true that both diabetes and the heart attack were a cause of death. You can have multiple causes of an event.

This was why measuring the deaths caused by the hurricane on Puerto Rico a while back was so difficult. The hurricane didn't directly kill many people, but it killed a lot of people indirectly. So it caused their deaths but didn't actively kill them.

[Starlight]

The other thing: if the initial case was 2-4 weeks earlier, everything else constant the peak is 2-4 weeks earlier, which means the peak might already be close to over or over.

It doesn't work anything remotely like that.

When the first case was, is largely irrelevant to anything at this point.

[Mountain Man]

Trust the experts, Cow Poke!

Yes, but which experts?

[demi-conservative]

It doesn't work anything remotely like that.

When the first case was, is largely irrelevant to anything at this point.

The same idiot who thinks that "success would have been the world sealing borders properly and fast enough such that there were never any cases outside of China.
"

You'll need to elaborate, idiot.

[Mountain Man]

You can have multiple causes of an event.

Exactly. So if someone with illness X is more likely to die from/with the China flu than someone without that illness, then you take steps to protect the vulnerable person and let the less vulnerable person go about their business.

[demi-conservative]

Yes, but which experts?

The ones with narratives and models that are not currently self-contradicting.....that's none of them.

Again, I rely on common sense when the available data has more holes than swiss cheese, and the models are useless. The virus is obviously virulent (some new study is more than doubling the estimated R0 to closer to 6, but you don't even need to rely on this study), with many undetected cases since most cases are mild to asymptomatic. This means that it must have spread earlier than previously expected. It must have spread to a lot more people than have been detected. Therefore the fatality rate is much lower than presented, likely even below 0.1%.

All this was clear months ago.

[demi-conservative]

Exactly. So if someone with illness X is more likely to die from/with the China flu than someone without that illness, then you take steps to protect the vulnerable person and let the less vulnerable person go about their business.

The fatality rate for young working adults with no preexisting conditions is very low. Unfortunately Fauci and others will have to defend the use of the quarantine. What are they going to say, 'sorry, looks like crashing the economy and causing depression level unemployment wasn't necessary?'

[oxmixmudd]

Doubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.

1) the doubling time is not constant. In the early phases of the disease, it varied from as little as 4 days to as much as 7. It is currently down to 7 again.

2) your estimate is wrong because the .1% mortality of the flu doesn't fill morgues to overflowing thus requiring extra freezer trucks to haul off the excess dead bodies. A .1% mortality does not work doctors and nurses to exhaustion, nor does it exhaust PPE supplies.

You are reasoning like the fellow watching the airplane fly who pulls out a napkin, does a few calculations, and then says that it is impossible and walks away.

The measured mortality rates in countries doing extensive testing is 1.5 to 2%. The measured uncounted infected associated with asymptomatic cases (iceland) is about 50%. We are dealing with, at best, .75 to 1% mortality, 7.5 to 10 times that of the flu.

Always make sure you numbers can explain the observations.

[demi-conservative]

1) the doubling time is not constant. In the early phases of the disease, it varied from as little as 4 days to as much as 7. It is currently down to 7 again.

Which would still present a much lowered fatality rate.

2) your estimate is wrong because the .1% mortality of the flu doesn't fill morgues to overflowing thus requiring extra freezer trucks to haul off the excess dead bodies. A .1% mortality does not work doctors and nurses to exhaustion, nor does it exhaust PPE supplies.

You are reasoning like the fellow watching the airplane fly who pulls out a napkin, does a few calculations, and then says that it is impossible and walks away.

You are reasoning like the idiot who can't add. The morgues are overflowing partly because of the mortality of the virus added to the mortality of everything else. What's the spare capacity of the morgues in normal times? Are there any special procedures now that slow down the processing of corpses by the morgues now?

Also, you can't reason. The other factor is that due to the virus being more virulent, all the cases and deaths will be compressed to a shorter amount of time, which can lead to overload. That doesn't change the fatality rate.

[demi-conservative]

Also, you can't reason. The other factor is that due to the virus being more virulent, all the cases and deaths will be compressed to a shorter amount of time, which can lead to overload. That doesn't change the fatality rate.

To elaborate, hospitals being overloaded does not mean that a virus is more deadly. Two virus with the same fatality rate but different R0 will have a different loads on hospitals. One curve can peak in one month and overload hospitals, while another can peak in 4 months with the same fatality rate.

A .1% mortality does not work doctors and nurses to exhaustion,

Working doctors to exhaustion is primarily a matter of how fast the virus spreads and not how deadly it is. Get that into your head somehow.

[Cow Poke]

Diabetes causes heart attacks.

It can, sure.

So if diabetes caused a heart attack which caused death, it's true that both diabetes and the heart attack were a cause of death. You can have multiple causes of an event.

Keerect.

This was why measuring the deaths caused by the hurricane on Puerto Rico a while back was so difficult. The hurricane didn't directly kill many people, but it killed a lot of people indirectly. So it caused their deaths but didn't actively kill them.

I think you missed the point -- let's say that diabetes caused a heart attack in a patient who also had Covid-19. Would you think it was proper to list the death as "due to Covid-19"?

[oxmixmudd]

Which would still present a much lowered fatality rate.



You are reasoning like the idiot who can't add. The morgues are overflowing partly because of the mortality of the virus added to the mortality of everything else. What's the spare capacity of the morgues in normal times? Are there any special procedures now that slow down the processing of corpses by the morgues now?

Also, you can't reason. The other factor is that due to the virus being more virulent, all the cases and deaths will be compressed to a shorter amount of time, which can lead to overload. That doesn't change the fatality rate.

No demi. You are the one with the faulty reasoning. The increase in fatality rate, day to day, is due to the virus. The normal daily fatality rate does not do this. Nor does the normal daily fatality rate augmented by a bad flu season. The medical system is set up to handle the normal daily mortality and that same normal daily mortality augmented by a bad flu season. Yet this virus is overwhelming it by orders of magnitude.

[demi-conservative]

Nor does the normal daily fatality rate augmented by a bad flu season. The medical system is set up to handle the normal daily mortality and that same normal daily mortality augmented by a bad flu season.

The system in Italy was set up to handle normal seasonal winter mortality, which of course includes flu. It fails because they got normal daily mortality + flu + the additional virus. This tells you nothing about how deadly the additional virus is, only that it spreads fast and gives a lot of cases in a short period of time.