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'The first New York patient was in...January?'

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  • 'The first New York patient was in...January?'

    Prepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:

    Dr. Heguy estimated that the virus began circulating in the New York area a couple of months ago.

    And researchers at Mount Sinai started sequencing the genomes of patients coming through their hospital. They found that the earliest cases identified in New York were not linked to later ones.

    “Two weeks later, we start seeing viruses related to each other,” said Ana Silvia Gonzalez-Reiche, a member of the Mount Sinai team.

    Dr. Gonzalez-Reiche and her colleagues found that these viruses were practically identical to viruses found around Europe. They cannot say on what particular flight a particular virus arrived in New York. But they write that the viruses reveal “a period of untracked global transmission between late January to mid-February.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/s...e-genomes.html
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

  • #2
    Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Prepare to trash your models, people, the NYT has a new narrative:



    I can't see the article because it is behind a paywall, but from your quote I think they are saying that it was circulating in Europe in January-February and came to NY from there instead of from California/Washington.

    The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      I can't see the article because it is behind a paywall, but from your quote I think they are saying that it was circulating in Europe in January-February and came to NY from there instead of from California/Washington.

      The first case in NY was still in March. The only thing they are saying different is where it came from. NY gets a lot of air traffic from Europe.
      Look at the first sentence in the quote.

      "Dr. Heguy estimated that the virus began circulating in the New York area a couple of months ago."

      Early February, if not earlier.
      Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

      Comment


      • #4
        ABC has the same story

        A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
        https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-c...ry?id=70062642
        From the video, Fauci also agrees it is "probably correct" that the earliest case was "far earlier than people thought", in mid-Feburary.

        Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ABC News' chief anchor George Stephanopoulos on Thursday that the new research is "probably correct" about how and when COVID-19 presented in New York.
        Narrative shifting!
        Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020, 03:06 PM.
        Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
          ABC has the same story



          From the video, Fauci also agrees it is "probably correct" that the earliest case was "far earlier than people thought", in mid-Feburary.



          Narrative shifting!
          ok. So what?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Sparko View Post
            ok. So what?
            Why do you ask me? You only trust Fauci and that lot of ''''''''''experts''''''''.

            Wait for them to tell you what this does to their models.
            Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              ok. So what?
              It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
                Doubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.
                Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020, 03:22 PM.
                Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                  It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
                  forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                    Doubling time of the virus in the USA is estimated at about 2.5 days. If the virus was in New York at least 14 days earlier, by simplified analysis there should be about 30 times more cases, 100k*30 = 3 million cases. The observed fatality cases divided by 3 million is around flu levels of fatality.
                    Maybe, but then you are having that mortality compressed into ONE MONTH rather than 6 which increases the number dying.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                      It means all the models and projections and doom and gloom predictions we've been hearing for weeks should be tossed out the window. I've read some reports suggesting that the virus may have presented itself in China as early as October or November. In other words, it may not be as infectious and deadly as we've been led to believe.
                      This is why they are revising the US death forecasts downwards. If the first spread in the US started even 2 weeks earlier everything is much less serious.
                      Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.
                        Dr. Birx established what she described as a very liberal standard for determining cornavirus deaths. Basically, if someone had the China flu when they died, then that is stated as the cause of death regardless of any other factors. This has undoubtedly inflated the case fatality rate dramatically. What we really need is a breakdown of those who had just COVID-19, and those who had preexisting health issues. It's entirely possible that the virus is not fatal on its own except in very rare circumstances, in which case, we can identify those who are most vulnerable and take the necessary steps to protect them and allow the rest of us to go back to work.
                        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                        Than a fool in the eyes of God


                        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          Maybe, but then you are having that mortality compressed into ONE MONTH rather than 6 which increases the number dying.
                          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing. Much faster than the flu and more dying than the flu in a shorter period of time.
                          Let's try this analogy. Compare a candle that you burn from both ends to the same candle that you burn from one end. One burns faster, but the same amount of wax is burnt when all is said and done.

                          Fatality rate is about number of deaths/number of cases. Faster spread increases both the numerator and denominator and doesn't necessarily mean a higher fatality rate.
                          Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020, 03:37 PM.
                          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The other thing: if the initial case was 2-4 weeks earlier, everything else constant the peak is 2-4 weeks earlier, which means the peak might already be close to over or over.
                            Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              forget the models, just look at the actual numbers and how fast they are growing.
                              And how much of this is because testing is increasing?
                              Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                              Comment

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