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'The first New York patient was in...January?'

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  • #76
    Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Fatality rate is defined as number of deaths/number of total cases, not more deaths in a shorter period of time. The total number of cases is highly underreported, so the fatality rate is probably similar to a bad flu season.
    I was addressing the idea that this virus is no worse than the flu. Just by looking at the number of deaths over time, even if the "fatality rate" is the same, this virus is way worse than the flu because it is way more contagious. Even with the nationwide quarantine we have seen 17,836 COVID-19 deaths in the USA as of this post. That is since Feb 29 (the first death). Just over a month and it has already killed as many people as the flu does in a typical year (10-30K). Without the quarantine it would have been even higher.

    You can keep trying to play games with the numbers but all that matters is how many have died over what time period. Even if you want to adjust for the fact that they are overcalling covid deaths from people who might have died from other reasons.

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      I was addressing the idea that this virus is no worse than the flu. Just by looking at the number of deaths over time, even if the "fatality rate" is the same, this virus is way worse than the flu because it is way more contagious.
      Okay, if you want to take that perspective, looking at total deaths instead of fatality rate.

      The flu recurs and kills every year because it mutates so fast, and even the best vaccine is not very effective. We know that this virus mutates much more slowly, and therefore a very effective vaccine could be possible. Therefore this coronavirus could very well turn out to be less deadly.
      Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

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      • #78
        Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
        Okay, if you want to take that perspective, looking at total deaths instead of fatality rate.

        The flu recurs and kills every year because it mutates so fast, and even the best vaccine is not very effective. We know that this virus mutates much more slowly, and therefore a very effective vaccine could be possible. Therefore this coronavirus could very well turn out to be less deadly.
        Eventually. We are talking about right now. You wiggle more than Carp does to keep from admitting you are wrong.

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        • #79
          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          Eventually. We are talking about right now. You wiggle more than Carp does to keep from admitting you are wrong.
          My original point since two months ago has been that the fatality rate is going to be around that of a bad flu or less. That hasn't changed.

          'right now' is a short-term, short-sighted view and useless. If you want to compare which two diseases are more severe in terms of total number of deaths, you have to take a long-term perspective. Flu will recur and keep killing, this virus will likely be stopped effectively, whether by vaccine, some anti-malarial like chloroquine, or some other form of treatment.
          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by JimL View Post
            True, and it came from you.
            You have not lost your childish disposition.
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by simplicio View Post
              Ummmm, wow. Do you really think you can take a true Christian's argument seriously, as if he actually believes it?

              Just because a poster makes an argument does not mean he actually believes it, especially when it is used to put down others.
              If you only knew the irony as you use this post to "put others down"....
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

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              • #82
                Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                If you only knew the irony as you use this post to "put others down"....
                But is it true? You made the argument in post #16, repeated it in post #28, then when given an example from NZ, you chose to call the example moronic and misguided in post #60. In other words, you made an argument then denied the argument while using it as an opportunity to call him names.

                Par for the course, Cowpoke.

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                • #83
                  Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                  If you only knew the irony as you use this post to "put others down"....
                  The irony is yours CP, you started right back in with the arrogant "put downs" right where you left off. Expect to receive what you dish out!

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by JimL View Post
                    The irony is yours CP, you started right back in with the arrogant "put downs" right where you left off. Expect to receive what you dish out!
                    You are the king of Irony, Jim.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by simplicio View Post
                      But is it true?
                      I think you've demonstrated a lack of hunger for truth, Simp.
                      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by JimL View Post
                        The irony is yours CP, you started right back in with the arrogant "put downs" right where you left off. Expect to receive what you dish out!
                        I'm not the one whining and moaning about the "put downs", Jim - I'm a big boy and can handle all the crap you guys throw.

                        YOU guys are the ones doing the complaining while doing the very thing you're complaining about.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                          I'm not the one whining and moaning about the "put downs", Jim - I'm a big boy and can handle all the crap you guys throw.

                          YOU guys are the ones doing the complaining while doing the very thing you're complaining about.
                          More irony!

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                            Okay, that needs adjusting.

                            R is the number infected by the average case. "R" is the "reproduction" rate, which varies over time, R(t). R0 was the number being infected before any mitigation strategies were in place, the initial value, R(t=0).
                            Thanks!
                            My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                            If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                            This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by JimL View Post
                              More irony!
                              No, Jim -- laughing at you guys doing the very same thing you're complaining others are doing is NOT irony on my part.

                              But I honestly don't expect you to comprehend that.
                              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                              Comment

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