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Yeah - It's just like the flu ...

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  • #46
    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    There are about two dozen a day now. If you stop removing sentences from their context, you will note that earlier in the article it notes that the norm is about 25 per week, which is 3-4 per day.
    That was unclear. I thought he was describing the norm.

    But the question remains, have all those corpses tested positive for the China flu?
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
      Yeah - there has been some reporting on it on CNN. It is not trivial. A large number of important but not emergency procedures are having to be postponed. That will result in not detecting some dangerous issues that otherwise might have been found. It is not trivial to know how to prioritize those things.

      What people should be doing is contacting their doctors with their symptoms and letting their doctors decide if their symptoms warrant that additional risk of going to the ER.

      There will be negative reactions to the truth about this virus, and when we realize that a negative reaction like this is taking place and hurting people, we move to mitigate it. That is what we do, this is a crisis, a pandemic. It will be impossible to keep bad things from coming of it. The thing we do is prioritize the problems and move to mitigate those that arise that are at the top of the priority list. This is the nature of a worldwide crisis and pandemic.
      There is a marvelous report on how South Korea managed the pandemic here. There are lessons there for other countries.
      The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

      I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
        That was unclear. I thought he was describing the norm.

        But the question remains, have all those corpses tested positive for the China flu?
        Actually, that question has already been answered: no. They are not wasting precious test kits on the dead at this time. They are needed for the living.'

        As others here have been fond of saying: if you see hoofprints in the sand, the reasonable man thinks "horse." He doesn't think "unicorn" or "man wearing horse shoes." We have a 6-fold to 8-fold increase in both at-home deaths and interment of unclaimed bodies at Potters field during a pandemic for a virus known to be 10-20 times as deadly as the flu. The reasonable man thinks, "most probably these are causally related." He doesn't think, "most probably it's something else." Especially when the consequences of ignoring this virus have been demonstrated in city after city and country after country - even WITH unparalleled levels of social distancing and other mitigation efforts.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • #49
          The reasonable man considers other plausible explanations instead of jumping to conclusions, such as patients of so many illnesses being afraid to go to hospital and therefore dying.
          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            Actually, that question has already been answered: no. They are not wasting precious test kits on the dead at this time.
            Think about it.
            Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
            But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
            Than a fool in the eyes of God


            From "Fools Gold" by Petra

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
              The reasonable man considers other plausible explanations instead of jumping to conclusions, such as patients of so many illnesses being afraid to go to hospital and therefore dying.
              Also, why so many unclaimed bodies? Are these all walk-in patients coming in by themselves? Are people afraid to come and claim the bodies of their loved ones? Are the "experts" decreasing the time that bodies can be claimed for fear of a festering corpse spreading the infection? Is the increase directly caused by the Chinese coronavirus, or are there are other factors?

              This is one of those stories that produces more questions than it answers. Of course people like carpe and ox dutifully respond with fear. Is that the intent?
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                Think about it.
                I have, MM. Fairly thoroughly. If the death numbers are off, they are most likely off LOW because of this exact effect. Up until recently, the death numbers were ONLY those who had tested positive for coronavirus. The number of deaths due to flu ranges from 11K per year to 61K per year with an average of 34K per year. As with coronavirus, those are statistical estimates because there is never a way to get an exact count. The flu season extends from November to April, peaking in January and February. If you average the worst case year (61K) against the shortest interval (peak months only), you get around 1,020 deaths per day. That is the worse case, upper end of the flu death rate, with flu shots being the only mitigation. For the coronavirus, we are now seeing over 1,900 deaths per day in the U.S. with MASSIVE social distancing in place to drive infection rates downward. And those are only those confirmed to be infected who died. Any of the untested dead would be ADDED to that number. Hopefully, those social distancing efforts will cause that death rate to turn around before too long, and hopefully we will see a net deaths of closer to 60K, but that will be with massive effort to that end.

                Of course, you can repeat your "see my magic rock - no tigers" explanation all you want. And I have no response to it because of the nature of this pandemic. If you successfully avert massive death, you are left with no way to prove those deaths would have occurred if you had not acted, leaving you and those like you with your "magic rock" story. So enjoy the meme. I'm comfortable with what the science is telling us about the probable outcome if we do not act. Science deniers will likely not be and will endlessly repeat their magic rock story.
                Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-10-2020, 01:13 PM.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                  [ATTACH=CONFIG]44096[/ATTACH]

                  One picture is worth 1000 words.
                  It's bad, it's terrible, it sucks, it's part of life. We'll dealing with it the best we can. Now what?

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    For the coronavirus, we are now seeing over 1,900 deaths per day in the U.S.
                    Are we? If bodies aren't being properly tested and added to the figure based on an assumption, and if we're using Dr. Birx's liberal standard of "dying with the China flu equals dying from the China flu" (if a person already had a short time to live, and the China flu only made it a little shorter, should they be cataloged as a COVID-19 death?), then we have no clear idea how many people a day are really dying from it. Has the extreme social distancing made a significant difference? Would isolating only the most vulnerable while allowing everybody else go about their business led to the same results? Nobody knows.

                    But you keep whooping and hollering about the "SCARY!" numbers if it makes you feel better.
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      One of these is not like the other...

                      Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                      ... and acting out fear over faith while simultaneously buying into nearly every lame conspiracy theory out there. My wife has a facebook feed. She keeps me updated.
                      Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                      The truth about this virus is scary. What is scary about it is not the raw numbers that get sick enough to die, it's how they die, and the fact that it's a game of Russian roulette. Yeah, maybe you get it and it's no worse than a typical allergy season. Or maybe you spend 21 to 30 days alone, afraid, with 14 to 21 of those last days unable to breathe in a hospital on a machine breathing for you and then you die alone, without family or friends at your side.

                      That is scary. That scares me. And it ought to scare you. And even more, you ought to care enough not to put someone else through that unnecessarily.

                      People like you are trying to convince people to pretend this is nothing, no big deal, everybody is overreacting. And those of you sending that message are, in actual fact, killing people who if they just had accurate information about their risk and how to mitigate it would not have otherwise died.

                      So it goes both ways a bit doesn't it. The only difference is that I'm telling the truth about what the situation is, and you are denying that same truth. And I've got the numbers and the science on my side, and you have conspiracy theories and right wing nuttery on yours.

                      So - yes we need to make sure Hospitals are safe for people experiencing other ailments. But not by spreading misinformation or conspiracy theories about covid.
                      Why are you living in fear?
                      "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                      GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by seanD View Post
                        It's bad, it's terrible, it sucks, it's part of life. We'll dealing with it the best we can. Now what?
                        That picture is not posted for those that understand the reality of what COVID SARS 2 is seanD.

                        Now what?

                        1) stop posting idiot conspiracy driven links and accept the reality this is a real pandemic and that the mortality is high enough to warrant aggressive action
                        2) get on board with trying to drive this thing into the ground by aggressively observing all the mitigation techniques we can.
                        3) encourage others to do the same, and to whatever extent possible help others caught in the trap of 1 above to find a way out.
                        4) If we are fortunate enough to be weathering these aggressive mitigation efforts well, look for ways to help those harder hit by those same mitigation efforts than ourselves.
                        5) do what we can to help those on the front lines of this to have the equipment they need and the support they need to get through this.
                        Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-10-2020, 01:50 PM.
                        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                          Are we? If bodies aren't being properly tested and added to the figure based on an assumption, and if we're using Dr. Birx's liberal standard of "dying with the China flu equals dying from the China flu" (if a person already had a short time to live, and the China flu only made it a little shorter, should they be cataloged as a COVID-19 death?), then we have no clear idea how many people a day are really dying from it. Has the extreme social distancing made a significant difference? Would isolating only the most vulnerable while allowing everybody else go about their business led to the same results? Nobody knows.

                          But you keep whooping and hollering about the "SCARY!" numbers if it makes you feel better.
                          No - the deaths being reported thus far are ONLY deaths of those who have been confirmed positive for coronavirus, as per both JHU and the worldometer. NYC is exploring how to include the excess untested deaths, but it is my understanding they have not added those in as yet. At least, I have seen nothing about it. Every indication is that the actual number of deaths is higher than what is currently reported, not lower.

                          As for your question of how people are cataloged, that is ALWAYS the problem with such a virus, and is a problem with the flu numbers as well - so it's basically a wash. When someone has more than one potentially terminal disease, determining which killed them is often impossible. We know that exact death rates will never be established and will be statistically arrived at. This is a point of discomfort for people who want binary and black/white answers, I understand. But it is the nature of the beast.

                          Meanwhile, the death rate for this pandemic apparently ranges from a low of (estimated) 0.2% for those under 40 to a high of over 14% for those over 80. Across the board, it appears to have a death rate 10-20 times that of the flu. South Korea provides an object lesson on handling this. Were it not for the massive resistance to isolation, the muddled response from the federal level, and the narratives coming from the right, there is a reasonable chance we would have long since seen a flattening of the curve and be doing exactly what South Korea is already doing: re-opening their markets and country. But here we have two epidemics to deal with at the same time: the coronavirus and the widespread acceptance of misinformation as "fact."

                          ETA: in my opinion, if someone's life is further shortened by the introduction of this virus into the mix, then the virus was instrumental in their death and should be counted as such.
                          Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-10-2020, 02:00 PM.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                            1) stop posting idiot conspiracy driven links
                            You mean like all those "SCARY!" models that vastly overestimated the actual number of deaths?
                            Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                            But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                            Than a fool in the eyes of God


                            From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                              You mean like all those "SCARY!" models that vastly overestimated the actual number of deaths?
                              See... your problem cuts both ways. We cannot "prove" that those deaths would have occurred as predicted if the mitigation efforts had not happened - and you cannot "prove" that the predictions are "vastly over-estimated." The best we can do is look at the science, and understand what it tells us about various scenarios and probabilities.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                                One of these is not like the other...

                                Why are you living in fear?
                                Relentless pressing has revealed the truth, that oxmixmudd is in the grip of fear. Now he needs our prayers.

                                And it's not just him, millions across the world caught up in this diabolical fear. Kyrie eleison.
                                Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                                Comment

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