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Thread: Lab Leak: The conspiracy theory is shaping up to look like real possibility

  1. #271
    radical strawberry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    My take is that he hasn't considered the lab escape scenario carefully because he considers it a circular argument.

    Sure, but what if scientists found the virus outside the lab, brought it back, and then it escaped?

    But that means it was in the wild to begin with. That's why I don't get what they're talking about [and] why I don't spend a lot of time going in on this circular argument.

    He's ridiculously busy trying to cope with the disease, too busy to read relevant papers his staff hasn't vetted, too busy to spend time fixing blame that could be spent fixing the crisis. As he should be.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    What he said was:

    Q. Sure, but what if scientists found the virus outside the lab, brought it back, and then it escaped?

    A. But that means it was in the wild to begin with. That's why I don't get what they're talking about [and] why I don't spend a lot of time going in on this circular argument.
    me > you

    but that isn't necessarily so. If they brought it in from the wild, then started playing with it by injecting the virus from the bats into human tissue, it could have evolved to infect humans, then jumped species, where it would not have in the wild.
    That's where I'm leaning, but there are contrary indications as well. A full treatment of possible scenarios is given in the Andersen paper cited above.

    1. Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer

    Neither the bat betacoronaviruses nor the pangolin betacoronaviruses sampled thus far have polybasic cleavage sites.

    "SARS-CoV-2 has a functional polybasic (furin) cleavage site at the S1–S2 boundary ..."

    2. Natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer

    All SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced so far have the genomic features described above and are thus derived from a common ancestor that had them too. The presence in pangolins of an RBD [human-ACE2 receptor binding domain] very similar to that of SARS-CoV-2 means that we can infer this was also probably in the virus that jumped to humans. This leaves the insertion of polybasic cleavage site to occur during human-to-human transmission.

    So we've got a Rhinolophus affinis bat coronavirus missing the RBD found in pangolin coronaviruses, and pangolin coronaviruses missing the virus backbone which makes RaTG13 the most similar.

    The scenario we're talking about, escape from the lab, has its own issues. I'm posting the relevant section in its entirety:

    3. Selection during passage

    Basic research involving passage of bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses in cell culture and/or animal models has been ongoing for many years in biosafety level 2 laboratories across the world, and there are documented instances of laboratory escapes of SARS-CoV. We must therefore examine the possibility of an inadvertent laboratory release of SARS-CoV-2.

    In theory, it is possible that SARS-CoV-2 acquired RBD mutations (Fig. 1a) during adaptation to passage in cell culture, as has been observed in studies of SARS-CoV. The finding of SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses from pangolins with nearly identical RBDs, however, provides a much stronger and more parsimonious explanation of how SARS-CoV-2 acquired these via recombination or mutation.

    The acquisition of both the polybasic cleavage site and predicted O-linked glycans also argues against culture-based scenarios. New polybasic cleavage sites have been observed only after prolonged passage of low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus in vitro or in vivo. Furthermore, a hypothetical generation of SARS-CoV-2 by cell culture or animal passage would have required prior isolation of a progenitor virus with very high genetic similarity, which has not been described. Subsequent generation of a polybasic cleavage site would have then required repeated passage in cell culture or animals with ACE2 receptors similar to those of humans, but such work has also not previously been described. Finally, the generation of the predicted O-linked glycans is also unlikely to have occurred due to cell-culture passage, as such features suggest the involvement of an immune system.

    It's the "finally" in the last line that argues most strongly against a lab escape.

  2. Amen shunyadragon, oxmixmudd amen'd this post.
  3. #272
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    me > you



    That's where I'm leaning, but there are contrary indications as well. A full treatment of possible scenarios is given in the Andersen paper cited above.

    1. Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer

    Neither the bat betacoronaviruses nor the pangolin betacoronaviruses sampled thus far have polybasic cleavage sites.

    "SARS-CoV-2 has a functional polybasic (furin) cleavage site at the S1–S2 boundary ..."

    2. Natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer

    All SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced so far have the genomic features described above and are thus derived from a common ancestor that had them too. The presence in pangolins of an RBD [human-ACE2 receptor binding domain] very similar to that of SARS-CoV-2 means that we can infer this was also probably in the virus that jumped to humans. This leaves the insertion of polybasic cleavage site to occur during human-to-human transmission.

    So we've got a Rhinolophus affinis bat coronavirus missing the RBD found in pangolin coronaviruses, and pangolin coronaviruses missing the virus backbone which makes RaTG13 the most similar.

    The scenario we're talking about, escape from the lab, has its own issues. I'm posting the relevant section in its entirety:

    3. Selection during passage

    Basic research involving passage of bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses in cell culture and/or animal models has been ongoing for many years in biosafety level 2 laboratories across the world, and there are documented instances of laboratory escapes of SARS-CoV. We must therefore examine the possibility of an inadvertent laboratory release of SARS-CoV-2.

    In theory, it is possible that SARS-CoV-2 acquired RBD mutations (Fig. 1a) during adaptation to passage in cell culture, as has been observed in studies of SARS-CoV. The finding of SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses from pangolins with nearly identical RBDs, however, provides a much stronger and more parsimonious explanation of how SARS-CoV-2 acquired these via recombination or mutation.

    The acquisition of both the polybasic cleavage site and predicted O-linked glycans also argues against culture-based scenarios. New polybasic cleavage sites have been observed only after prolonged passage of low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus in vitro or in vivo. Furthermore, a hypothetical generation of SARS-CoV-2 by cell culture or animal passage would have required prior isolation of a progenitor virus with very high genetic similarity, which has not been described. Subsequent generation of a polybasic cleavage site would have then required repeated passage in cell culture or animals with ACE2 receptors similar to those of humans, but such work has also not previously been described. Finally, the generation of the predicted O-linked glycans is also unlikely to have occurred due to cell-culture passage, as such features suggest the involvement of an immune system.

    It's the "finally" in the last line that argues most strongly against a lab escape.
    Thanks for the really wordy way of saying what I said.

  4. #273
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Thanks for the really wordy way of saying what I said.
    No it is not what you said.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  5. #274
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    No it is not what you said.
    Yes it was. Just way more detailed.

  6. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Thanks for the really wordy way of saying what I said.
    Sparko - that response indicates you do not understand the content of the paper Juvenal posted. Perhaps go back and re-read it - perhaps a bit more carefully (or perhaps more completely) this time
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  7. #276
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    The reports that the lab was not secure came long before Trump was President. And all of the evidence in the OP has nothing to do with Trump. In fact, when all this was breaking, Trump was reticent to even give it any credence, saying he saw some reports about it but had no comments and he hopes that it wasn't the case.
    My point has more to do with Trump's current efforts to 'punish china' and more directly his recent claims to have significant information that puts the source as the Chine Lab. That is the context of Fauci's comment. That is the context of my posts. I posted quite a while ago on the fact that the research (quoted in Juvenal's post) indicates an unlikely laboratory based origin. There we no intelligent replies at the time that addressed the data, much like now.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  8. #277
    Professor Cerebrum123's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    It has everything to do with Trump! Trump is the source of the disinformation on the virus origin being discussed here. He and Pompeo have made bold assertions that they have evidence the virus originated in the wuhan lab. To respond to that is the topic of this thread, and to call responding to those facts "trump obsession' points to your own bias, not mine.
    As soon as I heard the virus 1. came from China, and 2. they repeatedly lied about it I immediately thought cover up. A lot of people, including those who don't like Trump have come to the same conclusion.

    So perhaps the fact you would characterize my response as 'Trump obsession' is just your ignorance as to the source of the current attempts by the administration to claim the lab as the source w/o supporting those accusations and contrary to the existing research?
    It's not even sourced to him. You're just so obsessed with seeing everything as his fault that you blame him for it. If anything your post is further proof of your obsessive hatred for him.

  9. Amen mossrose, Cow Poke amen'd this post.
  10. #278
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cerebrum123 View Post
    As soon as I heard the virus 1. came from China, and 2. they repeatedly lied about it I immediately thought cover up. A lot of people, including those who don't like Trump have come to the same conclusion.
    Oh - there was a cover up, and I don't trust the Chinese in the slightest. The issues is what the science has to say and what the evidence actually supports. There are many reasons for a cover up other than trying to foist a deadly virus on the world.


    It's not even sourced to him. You're just so obsessed with seeing everything as his fault that you blame him for it. If anything your post is further proof of your obsessive hatred for him.
    Again - this is your biased fantasy, just like it is most people on this site that have taken offense at my criticism of Trump's ACTIONS. It's a myth, a sort of group-think based illusion fostered by paranoia that any source critical of Trump is necessarily biased and part of some grand 'liberal conspiracy' to 'bring him down'. The reality is that Donald Trump continuously engages in lies, deceptions and misinformation. He routinely tries to claim he did not do what we have him on tape doing. He has no respect for the separation of powers and routinely seeks to work his way around it. He has little respect for those who because of their integrity find themselves forced to contradict him - usually firing them and replacing them with people that will value his goals above those of this country. This and many other reasons give anyone just CAUSE to criticize him and to worry about what path he has taken us on. And his complete and total bungling of the COVID-19 response is just the latest and one of the most severe consequences of how he has structured this presidency.

    That you have believed that somehow my alarm at these things represents 'hatred' or 'obsession' on my part is - as I said before - simply evidence of your own bias and lack of connection with the reality in which we live on this issue.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-05-2020 at 12:04 PM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  11. #279
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Source: https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-dismisses-wuhan-lab-source-coronavirus-contradicting-trump-pompeo-1501924



    DR. FAUCI DISMISSES WUHAN LAB AS SOURCE OF CORONAVIRUS, CONTRADICTING TRUMP AND POMPEO
    BY DANIEL VILLARREAL ON 5/4/20 AT 10:43 PM EDT

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the scientific face of America's pandemic response, dismissed the theory that coronavirus originated in a lab in Wuhan, contradicting the president and his Secretary of State in an escalating confrontation with China.

    "The best evidence shows the virus behind the pandemic was not made in a lab in China," Dr. Anthony Fauci said in an exclusive interview with National Geographic published on Monday. "Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species."

    He added that he doesn't believe the alternate theory that someone discovered coronavirus in the wild, brought it to a lab and then it accidentally unleashed it on the public.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  12. #280
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    Source: https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-dismisses-wuhan-lab-source-coronavirus-contradicting-trump-pompeo-1501924



    DR. FAUCI DISMISSES WUHAN LAB AS SOURCE OF CORONAVIRUS, CONTRADICTING TRUMP AND POMPEO
    BY DANIEL VILLARREAL ON 5/4/20 AT 10:43 PM EDT

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the scientific face of America's pandemic response, dismissed the theory that coronavirus originated in a lab in Wuhan, contradicting the president and his Secretary of State in an escalating confrontation with China.

    "The best evidence shows the virus behind the pandemic was not made in a lab in China," Dr. Anthony Fauci said in an exclusive interview with National Geographic published on Monday. "Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species."

    He added that he doesn't believe the alternate theory that someone discovered coronavirus in the wild, brought it to a lab and then it accidentally unleashed it on the public.

    © Copyright Original Source

    wow. where have you been for the last two pages?

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