Lab Leak: The conspiracy theory is shaping up to look like real possibility

[shunyadragon]

Once it infected a live animal or human, it would have the markers showing involvement with an immune system.

Huh?!?!?! The source provided by Juvenal specifically stated it was unlikely to come from the lab. The research indicated that it came from an immunsystem mutation and not a lab culture. Reading comprehension a problem here. The above is an incoherent incomplete response.

Please respond:

No this did not answer my questions. So far absolutely nothing has been presented from an epidemiologist supporting specifically an escape from the lab.

No it did not. You need a lesson in English. From his source:

"That's a blow-out of 27 amino acids between the S1 and S2 subunits. There is no difference between RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 outside the cleavage site. There are two differences between them and the consensus pangolin. All three match at the O-linked glycan residues, which obviates an important issue:

Finally, the generation of the predicted O-linked glycans is also unlikely to have occurred due to cell-culture passage, as such features suggest the involvement of an immune system.

If SARS-CoV-2 came from RaTG13, that leaves only the polybasic cleavage site unaccounted for.

No one, including Luvenal have presented a scientific reference to support specifically the escape from the lab over infection naturally from animals in Wuhan Market. Not counting Trump and Pompeo. I have asked Juvenal several times to provide a source that specifically supports his position and he has failed to do so . Still waiting . . .

I cited Fauci specifically support the source of COVID 19 as being a natural source in Wuhan Market, and NOT the lab in the National Geographic interview. You cited one question and answer without citing the source, nor the complete interview.Again . . . Source please with complete interview.


"Pompuse Pompeo said there was a great deal of evidence that the virus came from the lab.Where is the evidence?"

Still waiting for references from Juvenal and you.

[oxmixmudd]

How would it be Trump's fault if it didn't escape from a lab?

The Trump admin is focussed on China because casting blame on them (they think) absolves them for their horrendous handling of the situation in January, February, and March. In fact, with the news that this thing was actually loose and spreading in December, it is very doubtful the one thing he did right (partial stop on air travel from China) had any meaninful effect.

And I never said it WAS a lab escape, but that it is starting to look likely. Truthfully, barring China admitting it, or some smoking gun being found, I don't think we will ever know for sure. But it does fit all of the known facts, such as China's coverup, disappearing scientists, etc.

It would agree that from what I've read and am reading there is a case to be made for lab escape (but there is a much stronger case to be made for working with China regardless rather than trying to cast blame and/or punish them)

And Shuny continually has misread Juvenal's posts, claiming he was trying to say it didn't escape from a lab (as did you but you apologized) and still hasn't realized his error. And I know Juv's posts and data doesn't PROVE anything, but it sure seems to indicate the virus being in a lab, where humans, bats, and pangolins were all in close proximity.

Yeah - Juevanal makes good points for lab escape. What causes me caution is that experts in the field with Ph.D's have legitimate reservations as it relates to that conclusion, and unless I at least partially understand the reasoning on both sides of the debate by the experts I'm not likely to put forward a conclusion that is strongly attached to one side of lab escape/wuhan market. What I do accept is that this was natural evolution, not human manipulation, which again makes the blame game a counter-productive enterprise. There will be other viruses, other labs, they might even be in the US, and we need to foster an attitude of global cooperation, not this sort of petty blame game - especially since it is a CYA move by the Trump admin.

[shunyadragon]

And Shuny continually has misread Juvenal's posts, claiming he was trying to say it didn't escape from a lab (as did you but you apologized) and still hasn't realized his error. And I know Juv's posts and data doesn't PROVE anything, but it sure seems to indicate the virus being in a lab, where humans, bats, and pangolins were all in close proximity.

I did not misread the research paper cited by Juvenal. I specifically cited it where it stated it was unlikely developed in a pculture, and more likely a natural mutation.

I am still waiting for scientific sources that specifically concludes that the lab release is the likely source. Neither Juvenal nor you have responding with any references.

[Juvenal]

Once it infected a live animal or human, it would have the markers showing involvement with an immune system.

Andersen1b.jpg

I'm not sure what to say to Frank.

[Cerebrum123]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44494[/ATTACH]

I'm not sure what to say to Frank.

Perhaps "airball".

[Juvenal]

What causes me caution is that experts in the field with Ph.D's have legitimate reservations as it relates to that conclusion ...

So do I.

[shunyadragon]

Yeah - Juevanal makes good points for lab escape. What causes me caution is that experts in the field with Ph.D's have legitimate reservations as it relates to that conclusion, and unless I at least partially understand the reasoning on both sides of the debate by the experts I'm not likely to put forward a conclusion that is strongly attached to one side of lab escape/wuhan market. What I do accept is that this was natural evolution, not human manipulation, which again makes the blame game a counter-productive enterprise. There will be other viruses, other labs, they might even be in the US, and we need to foster an attitude of global cooperation, not this sort of petty blame game - especially since it is a CYA move by the Trump admin.

I do not believe he made a good argument, because as cited in the paper he cited concluded it was most likely a natural mutation and not a lab culture. Could a natural mutation take place in the lab? Yes, of course, but that makes a nul argument, because there would be no prefered argument based on that it was the lab. To compound this Juvenal refuses to cite an outside scientific source in epidemiology that reaches the conclusion that it was likely a lab source. Pompeo, Trump nor Sparky are not reliable sources.

[shunyadragon]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44494[/ATTACH]

I'm not sure what to say to Frank.

Not sure?!?!?! You have failed to provide a comparable source from an epidemiologist to support your case, nor have you responded to the following from your own reference.

""That's a blow-out of 27 amino acids between the S1 and S2 subunits. There is no difference between RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 outside the cleavage site. There are two differences between them and the consensus pangolin. All three match at the O-linked glycan residues, which obviates an important issue:

Finally, the generation of the predicted O-linked glycans is also unlikely to have occurred due to cell-culture passage, as such features suggest the involvement of an immune system.

If SARS-CoV-2 came from RaTG13, that leaves only the polybasic cleavage site unaccounted for."

It clearly indicates that it is more likely a natural mutation and NOT a lab culture.

Also I believe your referred to a time issue of ~7 versus ~50 years. How is that an issue, because the viruses are constantly mutating over time in the wild.

Still waiting for you to respond to my repeated questions. I believe that the conclusions of Fauci and other scientific source I cited in the field that disagree with you are more valid and you have failed to respond to my references.

[oxmixmudd]

I do not believe he made a good argument, because as cited in the paper he cited concluded it was most likely a natural mutation and not a lab culture. Could a natural mutation take place in the lab? Yes, of course, but that makes a nul argument, because there would be no prefered argument based on that it was the lab. To compound this Juvenal refuses to cite an outside scientific source in epidemiology that reaches the conclusion that it was likely a lab source. Pompeo, Trump nor Sparky are not reliable sources.

The problem is the virus itself could have been in the lab from a natural source and escaped from there. So there are really four questions

1) Was the the new virus human created in the lab (almost surely not - everyone agrees)

2) Was the new virus a natural result of experiments in the lab (that also appears not to be the case, but can be debated?)

3) Was the virus in the lab from imported wild samples but escaped through a mistake in handling (that is one of the viable options)

4) was the virus never in the lab at all but simply in the bats/pangolins in the wuhan market (that is the other viable option)

I'm not sure how to distinguish between 3 and 4 without detailed tracing of the initial cases. And I'm still a little confused over whether Juvenal is arguing most forcefully for 2 or for 3 - but I think it is 2*? And I'm not sure Fauci considers 3 vs 4 worthy of debate.

*This is mostly probably my own fault for skimming rather than carefully reading his more in depth replies ...

[Sparko]

The Trump admin is focussed on China because casting blame on them (they think) absolves them for their horrendous handling of the situation in January, February, and March. In fact, with the news that this thing was actually loose and spreading in December, it is very doubtful the one thing he did right (partial stop on air travel from China) had any meaninful effect.



It would agree that from what I've read and am reading there is a case to be made for lab escape (but there is a much stronger case to be made for working with China regardless rather than trying to cast blame and/or punish them)



Yeah - Juevanal makes good points for lab escape. What causes me caution is that experts in the field with Ph.D's have legitimate reservations as it relates to that conclusion, and unless I at least partially understand the reasoning on both sides of the debate by the experts I'm not likely to put forward a conclusion that is strongly attached to one side of lab escape/wuhan market. What I do accept is that this was natural evolution, not human manipulation, which again makes the blame game a counter-productive enterprise. There will be other viruses, other labs, they might even be in the US, and we need to foster an attitude of global cooperation, not this sort of petty blame game - especially since it is a CYA move by the Trump admin.

I think what people are upset about is the lack of transparency and responsibility from China. If it did escape from a lab, well, it shows that they had some lax safety protocols or something, but worse, they covered it up, because it would mean they knew how contagious it was from the beginning, when they were saying there wasn't any human to human spread. Not to mention shutting up the people at the lab, and letting people travel to other countries. Almost as if they were saying, if we are going to suffer, the world is going to suffer.

[oxmixmudd]

I think what people are upset about is the lack of transparency and responsibility from China. If it did escape from a lab, well, it shows that they had some lax safety protocols or something, but worse, they covered it up, because it would mean they knew how contagious it was from the beginning, when they were saying there wasn't any human to human spread. Not to mention shutting up the people at the lab, and letting people travel to other countries. Almost as if they were saying, if we are going to suffer, the world is going to suffer.

It is much more likely China was doing the face saving thing. That is what their culture requires. And their authoritarian government has few if any restraints on such action.

What they did was wrong. But Trump trying to start a war over it would be worse: for us, for them, and for the world. And all just because he doesn't want to be held accountable for his mistakes. Think about it. Trump wants to blame China for their mistakes in an attempt to cover his even more dangerous and negligent mistakes.

Why do we think it makes sense to support that? Do YOU think it makes sense to support that?

[Sparko]

It is much more likely China was doing the face saving thing. That is what their culture requires. And their authoritarian government has few if any restraints on such action.

What they did was wrong. But Trump trying to start a war over it would be worse: for us, for them, and for the world. And all just because he doesn't want to be held accountable for his mistakes. Think about it. Trump wants to blame China for their mistakes in an attempt to cover his even more dangerous and negligent mistakes.

Why do we think it makes sense to support that? Do YOU think it makes sense to support that?

Trump won't start a war. He will just increase tariffs and limit trade with China. And continue bringing back manufacturing to the USA. He is a business man at heart. He will also probably try to get the other countries to do the same and shun China. But of course the liberal House will prevent him from doing anything in the long run, so you don't need to worry.

[oxmixmudd]

Trump won't start a war. He will just increase tariffs and limit trade with China. And continue bringing back manufacturing to the USA. He is a business man at heart. He will also probably try to get the other countries to do the same and shun China. But of course the liberal House will prevent him from doing anything in the long run, so you don't need to worry.

Sparko - It was Trade wars that became key triggers for both WW I and WW II.

And while Trump may not want to 'start' a war, history shows us the sort of actions he is taking can provoke one.

And especially in this case where what we need is cooperation on the issue, not an escalation of tensions. We need China to be forthcoming, we need them to fix whatever elements might have led to a release if it occured, and we need to foster - as much as is possible - an environment where when it comes to health issues and pandemics we work together with other governments, not engage in some sort of blame game. And given the economics of fighting this virus, we don't need a massive trade war to further deepen the economic consequences of this pandemic. It is so short sighted to be taking this approach. It is in fact serving only one person and his 6 month re-election goals (at best).


We will do nothing but shoot ourselves and our allies in the foot - or worse.

[Sparko]

Sparko - It was Trade wars that became key triggers for both WW I and WW II.

How do you figure?

And in this case, what we need is cooperation on the issue, not an escalation of tensions. We need China to be forthcoming, we need them to fix whatever elements might have led to a release if it occured, and we need to foster - as much as is possible - an environment where when it comes to health issues and pandemics we work together with other governments, not engage in some sort of blame game. And given the economics of fighting this virus, we don't need a massive trade war to further deepen the economic consequences of this pandemic. It is so short sighted to be taking this approach. It is in fact serving only one person and his 6 month re-election goals (at best).


We will do nothing but shoot ourselves and our allies in the foot - or worse.

What do you propose? Letting China off the hook without even an slap on their economic wrist just encourages them to keep doing what they are doing. They singlehandedly took down the economy of the whole world with their "saving face"

[oxmixmudd]

How do you figure?



What do you propose? Letting China off the hook without even an slap on their economic wrist just encourages them to keep doing what they are doing. They singlehandedly took down the economy of the whole world with their "saving face"

What do you propose - trying to get blood out of a turnip? Yeah - we don't try to punish them because every nation has made massive mistakes dealing with this virus. The fingers we point have just as many pointing back. So we try to work together rather than just make things even worse playing the blame game.

And we especially don't allow Trump's ego, inability to face his failures, and his re-election ambitions drive that blame game!